Part 5.0: Check My Math: A Step-by-Step Guide to Evaluating the Risk of Authoritarianism in the U.S.

The 5th and Final Part of “Their Coup Playbook: How They Quietly Kill the Constitution and Democracy in the Coming Weeks and Months”

For once, it’s not bullshit. Ensuring we and our country have a future really is on us.

If you’ve read Part 3 in this series, you know I’ve been wrestling with some disturbing signals — legal maneuvers, policy changes, and rhetoric that seem to follow a playbook used by leaders who dismantle democracies.

I have become convinced that the risk has gotten way too significant to ignore.

This post, Part 5, is where I show you the math.

This post doesn’t try to convince you.

It shows you the math — and gives you the tools to look at the situation in detail yourself.

You’ll walk through a process, compare real historical patterns to what’s happening now, and decide for yourself if the U.S. is nearing a legal coup — or already living through one.

If I’m wrong, I want you to prove it. That’s the point.

If you’re just joining, welcome to the crazy train. You can hop on board with Part 1.

What This Post Is — and Isn’t

This is not a rant. It’s not a prediction. It’s not doomscrolling.

This is a replicable, transparent, evidence-based framework you can use to:

• Examine whether democratic erosion is happening.
• Evaluate the risk of Trump invoking the Insurrection Act on or after April 20, 2025.
• Assess how close we may be to a legal coup. Or if we’re in one already.

The process lets you use up to six major AI models to analyze evidence. You’ll see their answers, compare them, and form your own conclusions.

This isn’t “trust me, I’m smart.”

It’s “Don’t trust me. Try it yourself.”

Why I Built This

I’ve worked in tech. I’ve been trained in data analysis, AI, and strategic foresight. Pattern recognition and risk modeling are things I’ve done professionally for years.

But I know most people don’t think in those terms — and they shouldn’t have to.

So I wanted to create a system that:

• Anyone can follow
• Doesn’t require technical knowledge
• Leverages today’s most powerful public tools

Because honestly?

I’m worried.

Really worried.

And I want you to have what you need to decide if you should be, too.

What You’ll Do

You’ll go through 10 questions, one at a time. For each one:

1. Copy the question into 2+ AI models (like ChatGPT, Grok, Gemini)
2. Compare their answers (or read summaries I’ve compiled)
3. Challenge the logic, take notes, draw your own conclusions

But What If You Don’t Have Time?

I get it. Life is busy.

So:

• Each question page includes summaries of all model responses
• You can skim or go hands-on — up to you
• Even just doing the first question is eye-opening

You’ll learn a lot.

And it’s kind of fun.

The Models I Used

Use any mix of these you like:

1. ChatGPT — Widely used, high-quality reasoning
2. Grok — Elon Musk’s LLM; less filtered, preferred by many conservatives
3. Mistral — Open-source, French, more direct and unpolished
4. Google Gemini — Great for current news and web results
5. Perplexity — Sources everything, excellent for research
6. Claude — Very PC, but honest and helpful. Good for context.

Use at least two. If you only use two, I recommend ChatGPT and Grok. Again, Grok is the “non-PC” LLM created by Elon Musk.

You can click on each of the links above to open the LLMs in your chat browser window, so you can ask your questions in the next step.

A Note on Privacy

Worried about asking political questions online? You’re not wrong to be.

If you’re concerned:

• Use a VPN
• Open a private browser tab
• Use a throwaway email to sign into AI platforms

See more at link 5E at the bottom.

The Questions You’ll Ask

These build on each other — you’ll start at the top.

I will queue you up with the first question at the bottom of this post, but so you know what’s coming:

The first question is the most important to ask, if you ask nothing else.

1. What are the documented steps — from actual history — that have been taken to overthrow democratic governments? (This is the baseline — The Dictator’s PlayBook)
2. What would this look like in the modern-day U.S.?
3. Where are we on that roadmap today?
4. What’s likely to happen next if this is what’s happening?
5. Have any of those next steps already been taken?
6. What’s the overall likelihood a legal coup is in progress?
7. What’s the probability the Insurrection Act will be invoked?
8. What happens after that?
9. Do regimes stay loyal to their supporters after taking power?
10. Final Summary and what to do with this information

Each question has its own page, background context, and links to both the raw and summarized LLM responses that you can review if you don’t want to run the queries yourself.

Why This Matters

We’ve already entered a period of chaos and uncertainty — and possibly, an incredibly dangerous inflection point.

The Insurrection Act is a key legal turning point, and a rapidly approaching date on the calendar.

Will it happen? We are less than three weeks out from the Day the Insurrection Act recommendation from Hegseth and Noem is due on Trump’s desk.

We don’t know.

But we don’t have to just guess.

Because we can analyze.

We can ask good questions.

We can compare multiple perspectives, and compare to history.

And we can make better decisions as citizens.

If nothing else, this process will sharpen your thinking, make you harder to fool, and help you see through both propaganda and panic.

So let’s check the math. Let’s ask the hard questions. Let’s use the tools.

And let’s decide for ourselves.

So, let’s get started.

Click here to get started with the First Question.

Extra Credit / Stuff you Should Read if you Have Time

I created 5 other posts with supplemental information it would be good for you to read / know as you work with this stuff. Sort of the Instruction Manuals and Safety Instructions. It doesn’t hurt my feelings if you skip these, but if you have time you’ll be glad you did.

• 5A. Setting the Table: What you should know about LLMs
• 5B. Three Good Things to Keep in Mind When Using Large Language Models (LLMs)
• 5C. A Super-Simple Explanation of How LLMs Work
• 5D. Understanding and Mitigating for LLM Biases (Everything and Everyone has Biases)
• 5E. Ensuring Your Privacy in These Interesting Times. e.g. Using a VPN

Previous Posts in this Series: Their Coup Playbook: How They Quietly Kill the Constitution and Democracy in the Coming Weeks and Months

• Part 1: On April 20th, 2025, the United States Will Cross the Point of No Return.
• Part 2: If the Shit Actually Hits the Fan.
• Part 3: What Changed my Mind. From ‘It can’t happen here’ to ‘Oh shit.’ (The Director’s Cut)
• Part 3A: What Changed my Mind. From ‘It can’t happen here’ to ‘Oh shit.’ (The TLDR: version.)
• Part 4: A Shopping List for the Unthinkable.