Bad News for Evan McMullin
This week, I ran two polls through Google Consumer Surveys. One of them says that about 40% of Americans can identify Gary Johnson from a picture. It’s hard to see him ever reaching the 15% to be on the debate stage without some plan to increase that number first.
The other one asks the question: “Which of the following people would you be happy to see as the next President of the United States?” It turns out, people aren’t particularly happy with any of the candidates:
First of all, Evan McMullin continues to be a joke candidate. The man still hasn’t announced a vice-presidential nominee, despite it being late September. He may be good enough for the likes of political commentators like Bill Kristol and Erick Erickson, but actual voters appear to have almost no interest in him at all. He may hurt Gary Johnson’s chances in Utah, but will have less impact on the race nationally than Darrell Castle.
Second, Bernie Sanders remains extraordinarily popular. Hillary Clinton would do well to have Bernie appear with her at *every public rally* she attends in October. The new proposal to raise the inheritance tax is a good start to securing his supporters, but it will take more than just a few lines in a standard Hillary stump speech to prove that she means what she says.
My math suggests that if every Bernie supporter votes for Hillary in November and nothing else changes, the election will be roughly 49–39, with Gary Johnson at around 10%. But if half of Bernie’s supporters stay home in November, Donald Trump might be the next President of the United States.