New Senate Polls in Iowa, Missouri, and Wisconsin

New Google Consumer Surveys polls show 3 GOP incumbent Senators in the Midwest facing difficult races for re-election.

Russ Feingold continues to have a strong lead in Wisconsin, leading 58–39 over incumbent Senator Ron Johnson. In Missouri, we show Jason Kander leading incumbent Senator Roy Blunt 52–45. In Iowa, incumbent Senator Chuck Grassley leads over Patty Judge 56–41.

Wisconsin

As it has been all cycle, Wisconsin is one of the best chances for Democrats to defeat a Republican incumbent. Russ Feingold currently leads 58–39 over incumbent Ron Johnson (N=551 voters, MOE=4.2%).

The “conventional wisdom” this cycle has been that Ron Johnson is likely to lose to Russ Feingold, and this poll gives no evidence to the contrary. Russ Feingold leads in all demographics in this survey.

For more information, view the raw data at Google Consumer Surveys.

Missouri

Roy Blunt, a former House Majority Whip and first-term Senator, trails Jason Kander 52–45 (N=521 voters, MOE=4.3%). This is within the margin of error of the poll.

While Missouri is a red state, Senator Claire McCaskill has been elected twice in the past decade, and Jason Kander released what I consider the best ad of this cycle last month. FiveThirtyEight currently gives Jason Kander a 40% chance of winning in Missouri.

For more information, view the raw data at Google Consumer Surveys.

A methodological note: there is a notably higher number of out-of-state voters erroneously reached through Google geo-targeting in this poll than in the other two states. I suspect this is from people in Illinois and Kansas commuting to work in St. Louis and Kansas City, but cannot be sure. I can’t speculate as to what impact that might have on the accuracy of these results.

Iowa

Chuck Grassley looks to be in good position to win a 7th term in the US Senate. He currently leads Patty Judge 56–41 (N=523, MOE=4.3%).

Despite the 15-point lead, this would be Grassley’s closest race since his initial election in 1980. He has received at least 64% of the vote in every election since then.

For more information, view the raw data at Google Consumer Surveys.

Methodology

All three polls were in the field from Wednesday, October 12 to Friday, October 14, using Google Consumer Surveys. Please see our methodology statement for more information.

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