New Utah Poll

After Sunday’s debate, I commissioned a Google Consumer Surveys poll of the presidential race in Utah. The results show a very close three-way race between Trump, Clinton, and Evan McMullin.

Right now, almost none of the Utah political establishment has endorsed a candidate. Mitt Romney, Sen. Mike Lee, Gov. Gary Herbert, and most other top officials are on the record opposing Trump at this point, but none of them publicly support another candidate. It seems to me that if any one of those three officials mentioned were to publicly endorse Evan McMullin, he would instantly become the favorite in Utah.

Gary Johnson continues to struggle in Utah. He places 4th by a sizable margin in this poll. While McMullin is unlikely to show anywhere near this much support in any other state, the growth of another third party candidate will make it much harder for Johnson to take a significant part of the Trump vote.

Hillary Clinton is likely to get about 30% of the vote in Utah. I can’t predict whether that will be enough for her to win, or put her in 3rd place in the state.