Japan’s Pacifism May Be at an End

The Liberal Democratic Party’s and its coalition partners win in Sunday’s Japanese elections portends a major shake-up in the post Second World War status quo. The LDP and its allies, generally religious or nationalist parties, already held a two thirds majority in the Lower House of the Japanese Diet. This election earned them a two thirds majority in the Upper House as well, giving them the power and ability to make changes to Japan’s American written postwar Constitution. Article 9, the clause that commits Japan to pacifism, appears to be in danger.

Japan’s Prime Minister Shinzo Abe has a long and deep connection to Japanese Ultra-Nationalism. His maternal grandfather was a minister in Japan’s Manchurian Puppet state of Manchukuo and later served as a Minister in Japan’s wartime Cabinet. Although never convicted he spent three years under arrest as a suspected war criminal. Recently Abe has been outed as being a member of Nippon Kaigi, whose stated goals are a revival of State Shinto. Developed during the Meiji Era, State Shinto combined aspects of traditional Japanese religious practices and beliefs about the Emperor with strident, almost reactionary nationalism. It centered on the belief in the Emperor’s Divinity (Japanese Emperors claim direct, unbroken descent from the Shinto sun Goddess Amatarasu) and eventually the superiority of the Yamato (Japanese) race. As Japan spiraled deeper and deeper into militarism and nationalism, State Shinto got more and more extreme. By the advent of the War in the Pacific this ideology called for the Yamato race to conquer the “8 Corners of the Globe” and bring the entire world the blessing of Emperor’s Divine rule.

Abe has made substantial steps towards increasing Japan’s military prowess and decreasing the restriction on its Self-Defense Forces. Under his watch the Japanese Maritime Self-Defense force ( already the sixth largest Navy in the world by tonnage) welcomed its largest ship since its defeat in World War II. The Izumo, called a “helicopter destroyer” but for all intents and purposes a helicopter carrier (aircraft carriers are considered offensive weapons under the constitution and thus banned), is larger than any aircraft carrier currently fielded by Italy, Spain, or the United Kingdom. This is a rather robust weapon platform for a theoretically pacifist state. Last year, Abe also announced a major shift in Defense policy. Previously Japan was restricted to operating only in self-defense and only in Japanese Territory. Abe re-interpreted the definition of self-defense to allow action in response to both threats to Japan and now its Allies. This is about as far as the current constitution will allow. With the new majorities, Shinzo Abe would be able go even further and scrap any and all constitutional restrictions.

The main concern with a remilitarized Japan (despite that fact that it already has the 6th largest military budget on earth) would be its impact on Asian security. The Chinese Communist Party has had a tendency to deflect attention from its weakening economy and increasingly unreliable stock market by utilizing nationalist anti-Japanese sentiment. The atrocities of the Imperial Army’s occupation are still quite a sensitive subject in China, and the CCP tends to stir up resentment anytime they need to distract from bad news. Their main method is challenging Japan’s claim to the uninhabited but potentially hydrocarbon rich Senkaku Islands (Diaoyutai to China), frequently and provocatively challenging Japanese naval and aviation patrols.

A remilitarized Japan and an anxious China combined with a tense territorial dispute is a global concern. The second and third largest economies on earth getting into a dispute with live ammo would be disastrous for the world economy and global stability. Japan’s close alliance with the United States and its hosting of numerous American military bases indicate that the USA would be highly likely to get drawn in. As this could essentially be World War III, it is obviously worst case scenario, although one that is worryingly more plausible than most would like. A more mundane concern could be that Abe and his cabinet will get sucked into the politically capital expensive constitutional issues instead of focusing on further reforming the struggling Japanese economy. Japan faces a very complicated and fraught crossroads and whichever way it chooses will impact the world as a whole.