Probabilistic attribution for iOS14 — a deeper dive

Figure 1 — Proposed scheme for probabilistic pROAS calculations based on anonymous user-level, SKAdNetwork, and Ad Network Data. We have also provisioned for users to be attributed by other means if they are Android or opt-in iOS users. Budget Allocation via API integration with multiple ad networks is shown as an example use-case.
Figure 2 — An example distribution of an app user over multiple user acquisition campaigns based on probabilistic attribution
Table 1: Hypothetical revenue and membership probabilities for 5 users with 3 campaigns. User 3 was an opt-in iOS user with fully known attribution to campaign C2.
Table 2: Campaign revenue ad ROAS for the proposed probabilistic versus winner takes all approaches.

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