#Who #Can #Make #America #Great #Again #GOP #Election2016 (series)
In February, 2016, I proposed the idea (Medium ) that the GOP2016 Presidential race, structurally, was not, a 2 horse race,but an MMA championship instead. Back then, 11 candidates remained in the race. Today, there are 3 left, each having honed multiple skills, and they will be duking it out amongst themselves, until one, is left standing.
Whoever survives the slaughter, will then get to fight for the tittle fight, the General Presidential #election2016 set to take place in November, 2016.
More on strategy, its elements, strategic thinking
This past Tuesday, Senator Ted Cruz seized the nice state of Wisconsin, peeling off delegates from the billionaire politician Mr. Donald Trump.
The “win” was hailed as a success and the consencuence of the test of the larger more important and pressing strategy at play, the complete derailment of the #TrumpTrain or at least the slowing of its engine.
In light of the fact that stopping Donald Trump is the main objective:
1- Did Senator Ted Cruz manage to derail in some way his opponent, bussiness man politician Donald Trump?
2- Did Sen. Cruz manage to stop the #TrumpTrain movement ?
Sen.Ted Cruz was crowned as the huge winner, the media at large gave him a bouquet of red roses with a card reading: warning, roses have thorns.
“This is a turning point” repeated Sen. Cruz.
In the meantime Trump’s loss was described as being the “complete meltdown” of “The Donald” “the final implosion”, “Trump’s Waterloo”.
Mr. Trump’s campaign put out a written statement, experts subsequently savaged it from its form to its content. Mr. Trump himself disappeared quietly into the night and well into the next day.
All through out the day yesterday, speculation grew on what was happening inside Mr. Trump’s camp, media, pundits, haters, entertaining the narrative, that Trump was just to childish to undertand anything and he was ready to give up the fight, if there was ever one to begin with, while his lovers defended his path forwards and commitment to stay the course no matter what.
“Strategy is not politics, but it is always about politics” Colin S. Gray
Prudence is the name of a legendary Beatles tune, but, as noted Strategic Studies Prof. Colin S. Gray has come to understand it, prudence is, in strategy, the foremost quality that should discipline strategic behavior, why? because all strategy has to be about the consecuence of threat and action and how these can and will achieve or not, desirable outcomes.
Mr. Trump’s auto shut down most of the day yesterday was noted and felt all through out the political sphere.
And last night, in astonishing fashion, a Presidential candidate named Donald Trump “rose” as Nicholas Kristoff wrote in #TheTimes, and in #Bethpage #NewYork , Trump showed prudence, lots of it. A behavior that in itself, carries a profound meaning, in the understanding, that beyond the details and contexts, strategy must always be ruled by superior political processes.
With his actions last night, candidate Trump and his campaign demonstrated:
- He has an understanding of strategy
- And the ability to think strategically
With 10 000 people showing up at a rally without fuzz, Donald Trump’s campaign also showed:
a) Skills- With quick adaptation, organizational, response, stabilization capabilities
b) Resilience- Survived multiple massive attacks, moving onward, and the numbers in the score cards are looking strong in his favor.
c) Power and Strenght- Remarkable ability to mobilize large groups of people is a testament of the combination of power with strenght.
What is left for Trump? Endurance. Can candidate Trump, adquire a killer team of advisors, learn how to pace himself in order to endure, survive attacks and prevail?
Senator Ted Cruz said in Wisconsin, “his” win in the state marked a turning point, a Litmus test of the sorts. Yes, it was a turning point, but for all the push and the investments, he will not get a return on that investment. The victory did not produce the projected and desired outcome. The tipping point, Sen. Cruz talked about, did not carry him blissfully into the Bronx, instead it helped cement the path for the frontrunner, his opposition.
Assumptions on Sen. Ted Cruz operation
1- Ted Cruz has several strategists
2- Solid ground game
If Sen. Cruz is standing behind the front runner today, at least in the practical terms, both asummptions checked.
Presidential candidate Sen.Cruz arrived to a hostile New York environment. What does that mean? Cruz failed at the task of stopping the #TrumpTrain and with it, he failed at stopping Trump and his campaign. Along with the failure of his narrative, in practice, the assumptions that his ground game and strategy team were both at the top of their game also failed.
Sen. Cruz won in #Cheese #country a race that was a natural marriage for him, a “gritty bible boy from the country” but the tactics used on his New York native opponent, and that gave him 36 delegates, will in fact crush his own path forwards.
The list of epithets used against Trump in Wisconsin was extensive: #NewYorkValues, “Coastie”, to loud, hot wife, too many marriages, abrasive, honest, direct, rich.
Sen. Cruz problems:
1- The mere attempt to practice strategy meets a resistance, more often than not unforeseen and unanticipated, we then become consumed in preventing chaos, managing it.
The campaign of Senator Cruz is dealing with major hurdles, scandals, and thus 80% of it had become consumed in the prevention of chaos or the management of it.
2- Businessman politician Donald Trump’s campaign seems to be agile enough to learn new behaviors on the spot and adapting as they go.
Donald Trump’s operations dislocate Sen. Ted Cruz’s campaign, the latter has adquired the weight of a bureaucracy, it moves that way, very slow, becoming stagnant, making impossible for innovative approaches to solve problems and move on and do quick adaptations. Not correcting these, could proof lethal for Cruz.
The Wisconsin primary has shown Sen.Ted Cruz and businessman Donald Trump’s operations and they are very different. Donald Trump’s operation seems to be doing the right things to steer them into place and move them forwards. Cruz’ s operation seems to have cracked in various places and they are busy trying to glue it back to previous state, it will be hard for them to move anywhere as long as they can’t get past this.
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Table 2.1 Strategy Elements and levels (wireframe Colin S.Gray The Future of Strategy)
OnMMA Boxing rules judging
Association of Boxing Commissions
On The Art and Science of Boxing
On Defense and Mastering The Art of Deception
On War —
War — Von Clausewitz
On Defense Strategy —
American Strategy in VietNam — A critical analysis — Col H.G.Summers Jr
On Strategy — The logic of War and Peace — Edward N. Luttwak
On The Future of Strategy — Colin S. Gray
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Next up, a little on the architecture of the #AntiTrump #NeverTrump strategy. it is failing, why?
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Resources / References / Publications / Details
Thucydides and Deterrence- Richard Ned Lebow