How do you solve a problem like Jeremy Corbyn?
Alastaire Allday
They say more unites us than divides us. At this election, that's quite literally true.
The Tories have to defeat Jeremy Corbyn. And judging by recent polling, so do Labour.
It is often said that the personal polling of party leaders is the best guide to an election result, as this graph demonstrates:
The more unpopular the leader, the greater the defeat.
While the Labour Party have begun to fight back, Corbyn's personal polling remains dire.
For this reason alone, I'm betting on a heavy Labour defeat.
With that in mind, I'd like to walk you through an analysis of how I think the Labour and Conservative parties might approach their respective advertising campaigns, and how each strategy could be countered.
1. Should the Conservatives go for a negative campaign?
Let’s start with the easy one.
At first glance, a negative campaign looks like a no-brainer.
We've already established that Corbyn is unpopular with the wider electorate.
He's an old-school, soak-the-rich socialist with well documented links to Irish republicans at a time when the IRA was engaged in a deadly bombing campaign of mainland Britain.
He's taken money from Iranian state TV, wants to scrap Britain's nuclear deterrent (but keep the submarines without missiles, to keep the unions happy), refused to sing the national anthem, and is widely seen as more geography teacher than national leader.
Sounds bad when you put it like that. So let’s see how it plays out.
When the election was called, I came up with this TVC script in about 3 minutes on my commute home:
The poster campaign would be just as devastating.
You would literally only need to use this image:
With the word “UNTHINKABLE?” underneath it. And number ten in the background.
It’s a no-brainer, right?
Wrong. Making this ad made me feel like I was kicking a puppy.
If the Pepsi/Kendall Jenner debacle has taught us one thing, it is that it is very, very easy to misjudge the mood of your audience.
People are fed up of all the negativity.
The election of 2015. The bitter referendum of 2016. And now, the people are being dragged to the polls again.
Election weariness could cause people to stay at home. And Labour may even pick up a few sympathy votes.
Worst of all, a negative campaign would look like the ‘nasty Tories’ at it again.
2. Can we get some more strategy in here?
When you see a bad ad, it's usually the creative who gets the blame. But the truth is, it's often a bad strategy.
The EU referendum campaign sought to portray Brexit as a 'reckless gamble' in the face of continued stability and prosperity by remaining in the EU.
I think that was a mistake.
When people feel they have 'nothing left to lose', they are more prepared to take a gamble.
That's why images such as this one sent out the wrong message:
A lot of people will have seen this image and thought ‘what have I got to lose?’
I raise this point now because current Conservative strategy is to parrot 'strong and stable leadership' at every possible opportunity.
I think focusing solely on this message is a mistake.
Here's how 'strong and stable leadership' might look as an ad:
Of course you could execute the concept in a million better ways, but you can't change the fact that as a strategy, it's, dull, dull, DULL.
And it's failing to cut through. People are joking about it. The Times did a cartoon of Theresa May as a squawking parrot.
To avoid becoming a dead parrot, May needs to offer something more.
In advertising, we often say you sell the sizzle, not the sausage. 'Strong, stable government' isn't sexy.
People want something to vote for. Not something they feel obliged to vote against.
Or, as Clinton discovered when she was beaten by Trump last year:
Who wants stability when you feel like you’re already up shit creek?
3. Could a populist revolt put Jeremy Corbyn in power?
When you're selling a product, you have to play to its strengths.
In the case of Jeremy Corbyn, his strength is his outsider status.
He's not part of the establishment. He's a tireless campaigner who has gone against the grain his entire life.
Corbynistas won't like me saying it, but in this respect he is very much a left-wing Trump, able to pick up votes from the disaffected and marginalised.
So what would a Corbyn 'drain the swamp' campaign look like?
Well, the British political landscape is very different. Let's face it, Britain is a nation still obsessed with class, whether you define them as working/middle/upper, ABC1 or C2DE, or merely as 'haves' and 'have-nots'.
Income inequality has risen sharply in recent years. The rich have gotten richer while the poor have been left behind.
With that in mind, Labour's strategy should be simple:
It's us vs them.
An ‘us vs them’ campaign immediately puts the Tories on the back foot.
It puts Labour firmly on the side of the people, while painting the Conservatives as the party of the elite.
With Corbyn as leader, it also rings true. He is an underdog, fighting for every other underdog. He’ll fight for you.
People might argue there aren't enough votes in a 'coalition of the disenfranchised' to win an election.
But those are the same people who said the EU referendum could never be lost.
4. The problem with populism: The electoral system rewards moderation
The vagaries of the FPTP system rewards moderate parties by placing greater emphasis on swing voters in marginal seats.
A radical 'us vs them' campaign would pile up votes in safe Labour seats – think Bootle or Hackney – but wouldn't appeal to a floating voter in a 'bellwether' marginal constituency such as Nuneaton.
'Strong and stable' will almost certainly get the Conservative party over the line against a disorganised and unpopular opponent. It would also probably be able to defeat an ‘us vs them’ campaign.
But it isn't enough to win a truly thumping victory. They would be relying on Jeremy Corbyn's personal unpopularity.
5. Do the Conservatives want to win, or win big?
The fact that FPTP rewards parties that occupy the centre ground of British politics means Theresa May should park her (metaphorical) tanks on Labour's lawn.
This graphic from the brilliant electoralcalculus.co.uk shows voter churn:
As you can see, Theresa May has secured her right flank. UKIP supporters are flocking to the Conservative party in droves.
UKIP also acts as a 'gateway drug' for Labour supporters to go 'from red to blue' as Billy Bragg once sang.
But there are far fewer Labour to Conservative switchers.
Tribal allegiances in Britain run deep.
Yes, the Conservatives will almost certainly win this election. And ‘strong and stable’ will get them over the finish line.
But until voters feel comfortable enough going ‘from red to blue’ directly, the Tories may have won the battle – but they won’t win the war.
‘Strong, stable leadership’ isn’t parking the tanks on Labour’s lawn.
It’s parking the Volvo Estate with the obvious intention of having a little picnic then buggering off back to True Blue Land once the election is won.
The Electoral Calculus research seems to indicate that working class voters who were socially conservative but proudly 'Labour til I die' have made already made the journey from red to blue via UKIP.
But far more red voters still regard the Conservative Party as utterly toxic.
The party of the rich. The party of 'them'.
That's why 'us vs them' is so effective as a strategy for drawing out Labour supporters who are still lukewarm about Corbyn.
It draws on a lifetime of tribal allegiance — people who could no more switch from Labour to Conservative than they could from Geordie to Mackem.
‘Strong and stable’ isn’t a long term strategy to change the electoral landscape – it’s a one off, short term tactic to win the next election.
But with Labour reeling under the leadership of Jeremy Corbyn, there will never be a better time to redefine the political landscape.
6. To win big, the Tories need to go into detox
Common belief is that when David Cameron became Conservative leader in 2005, he started ‘detoxifying’ the Conservative brand.
But if 'us vs them' still rings true, thirteen years later, it’s clear that there's still a long way to go.
The electoral calculus voter churn shows that Labour and Lib Dem voters are hardly switching to the Conservatives at all.
‘Us vs them’ is powerful because the Conservatives are still seen as the party of ‘them’, not ‘us’ by a large swathe of the electorate.
Elections are usually won from the middle ground.
To win over these voters, the Conservatives need to be inclusive.
In other words, they need to be for everyone.
Theresa May has already said she wants Britain to be a country 'that works for everyone', so why not make a campaign out of it?
Well, as these scamps show – this campaign is a little on the bland side.
'For Everyone' sounds a little bland and mealy mouthed.
It's the 'stronger in' of the EU referendum or 'stronger together' of Hillary Clinton rehashed.
Because it's such a cliche, it lacks credibility.
If people are fed up of negative campaigning, they’re also fed up of polished politicians giving the same old robotic answers.
Anti-establishment politicians like Jeremy Corbyn are able to tap into this anger. Can Theresa May seize the mantle for herself?
7. Want to win big? Go hard or go home
Brands that take risks by pointing out their own flaws can reap huge rewards.
Avis car rental's 'we try harder' is a classic of the genre. So were the famous Volkswagen ‘lemon’ ads. They turned weakness into strength.
But a more recent example might come from Domino's Pizza.
In 2007, Domino's had an image problem. Their pizzas were seen as awful and overpriced and their service not much better.
So they did the unthinkable. They apologised.
And over the course of the last decade, after humbly and genuinely promising to listen to people and improve, people have been flocking back to Domino's.
Their reputation is restored.
It sounds crazy, with the Conservatives ahead in the polls and well on their way to securing a 100 seat majority.
But what would happen… if Theresa May actually apologised?
It could be a very simple one-off speech by Theresa May.
8 – There’s never been a better time for "a bolt from the blue"
I can already hear the sharp intake of breath from some readers. Especially those on the right wing who are proud of your party's record in government.
But hear me out.
To those people I would say, if not now, when?
Yes, the Conservatives are on course for victory.
But even in 2017, the Conservative Party remains toxic to a huge percentage of the electorate.
It's why even the worst polls for Labour put the party on 24% and some place them as high as 31% - almost the same amount Ed Miliband got in 2015. (Source: Britain Elects)
Polling consistently shows that Jeremy Corbyn is about as popular as a fart in a lift. Yet one in four people still plan on voting for the Labour Party.
That’s why an apology, now, would be a stroke of tactical genius.
Firstly, even were the strategy to misfire, a Conservative victory is still a near certainty — so even if they disagree with it, an apology of this nature is hardly likely to send True Blue voters flocking to Labour or the Lib Dems.
There is little to lose and much to be gained.
There are those who would say that an apology would be a ‘Ratner moment,’ a tarnishing of the brand. But there is one key stat that shows why, and more importantly how, Theresa May can apologise in order to win over a wider electorate.
The Tories are the only party trusted to deliver Brexit.
51%, an outright majority of voters trust Theresa May at the negotiating table. Compare that to just 13% for Corbyn.
Even among remain voters, May is trusted by twice as many as Corbyn.
And one of the really interesting stats of the election is that Conservative remain voters are sticking with the Tories — they’re not switching to Labour or Lib Dem.
So the apology could be phrased simply as ‘I know many of you have not trusted the Conservative Party to govern in your interests before, but I am asking you to trust us now, because we are the only party who can be relied upon to safeguard your interests during Brexit. Give us your trust, now, and we together we will truly build a society that works for all.’
A carefully worded apology would not be a tarnishing of the Conservative brand.
It would be a renewal.
Instead of relying on Conservative and UKIP votes, Theresa May would be asking red and yellow voters to lend her their support, just this once, to secure the best possible deal from Brexit.
But once people have voted Conservative, even once, those old tribal allegiances are broken down — for life.
A move like this wouldn’t just be parking the proverbial tanks on Labour’s lawn.
It would be parking them in the garage then nipping inside to use Corbyn’s loo without asking permission.
9. Labour pursued this ‘apology’ strategy in the 90s with wild success
Labour's 'Clause 4 moment', where the party repudiated state ownership of the means of production, was the beginning of the party's decades-long occupation of the centre ground of British politics.
Labour won a majority of 179 seats in 1997 by utterly dominating the centre ground – but only after they had detoxified their brand.
Now is the moment to detoxify the Conservative brand among Labour voters.
Not only this, but an unexpected, apologetic, "bolt from the blue" speech would defuse the criticisms of May made so far - that she is robotic and unapproachable - and would clear the decks for the positive, unifying campaign to come.
10. Follow up an apology with a campaign that unites the nation
A campaign like "for everyone" is wishy-washy and meaningless.
And a campaign that focuses solely on ‘who would you rather trust at the negotiating table’ would be a waste. People already know who they’d rather trust.
But a personal campaign that encourages each and every individual to get up and vote because their vote counts for something – to help secure the best possible future for themselves, for their communities, for their nation, and for their children – that would work.
It is said that one of the factors in the EU referendum result was that people felt disenfranched – that their vote didn’t count.
A bold strategy would be to turn every vote, even in safe seats, into an endorsement of May’s agenda.
Something a little like this:
11. The knockout blow isn’t a left hook, it’s laughter.
With a campaign strategy like this, I'm pretty certain Labour would be left reeling.
But it's still not a knockout blow.
I’ve already said I’m unconvinced by a negative campaign strategy. It just looks mean and spiteful.
If you’re going to make fun of someone, it’s far better to do it with laughter than with an insult spat in their face.
One good example of this is the recent ‘FRAMPA’ ads with Mike Ehrmantraut as the grumpy yet loveable old grandpa who points a clueless young man to the right auto part on the shelf in a garage.
Labour recently released a 20 point manifesto that, on the surface, makes sense.
For example, raising the minimum wage to £10 makes sense until you realise it could actually leave a lot of low paid workers unemployed, as McDonalds workers in California found out when they were replaced by machines after a similar minimum wage rise.
The trouble is, trying to fight an increase in the minimum wage can look callous and uncaring. Even though it may actually cause some people to lose their jobs.
The best way to pull apart Labour’s sensible sounding policies would be to use a loveable, older, down to earth character – just like Frampa.
I put together a quick script – with apologies to Del Boy and Rodney – just to illustrate what such a TVC would look like.
But the idea would work equally as well, for, say, Mark and Jeremy from Peep Show.
Compare this fun script with the hammer-blows of the ‘IRA’ script I started my analysis with. If the Conservatives need to state their case, it’s far better to gently mock Corbyn than to go all-in on him.
12. To defend themselves, Labour must go digital, go local
Labour would now be faced with a deadly three pronged Conservative attack:
1. An apology to soften up ‘tribalism’ within Labour voters
2. An appeal to unite the nation, to give Britain a strong hand
3. An appeal to common sense that pokes holes in Corbynite economics
Current projections put Labour on around 170 seats. But a campaign strategy like the one I have outlined could leave them down to their ‘firewall’ of seats with a 10,000 majority – just 120 seats.
Labour are losing this election. Badly. What can they do to fight back?
If Labour have a Jeremy Corbyn problem, their best strategy is to bypass him altogether.
The best way to do that is to go local. And the best way to go local is to go digital.
Once again, a recent campaign points the way: last year’s Vote Leave campaign.
Did you know that Vote Leave spent around 98% of their advertising on Facebook?
You probably already know that brands use cookies to track you round the web and sell you things they think you’re interested in.
But did you know that there are companies out there doing the exact same thing for political organisations?
With a very high degree of accuracy, it is possible for these companies to work out a) who you vote for (e.g. by tracking which news sites you read the most) and b) where you live, down to a constituency level.
That means a purely digital campaign could reactively support individual Labour MPs in specific constituencies.
I’ve chosen Tom Watson in West Bromwich East because despite his large majority, if the UKIP vote went to the Conservatives this time, they would be just a thousand or so votes short of winning the seat. That means Labour’s deputy leader would be at risk of a ‘decapitation’ strategy.
1. A month before the election, voters in the constituency in West Brom East are targeted by an ad that asks them to sign a petition supporting a local institution – say a school or a hospital (to use an example at random)
2. Data capture on landing page – voters who sign up to the petition give us their names – we’ll use this to target them again later:
3. Just before, or even on election day, we’ll reach out to individual voters with personalised retargeted ads urging them to get out and vote.
4. Voters we can’t identify by name can still be targeted with a localised message
This strategy can’t save the Labour party from defeat. But it can save individual seats.
If the Tories pursue a ‘decapitation strategy’ where they target potential leadership candidates within Labour who could pose a threat to them at the next election cycle, Labour will be out of power for a generation.
A digital local strategy combined with a solid ground game in individual constituencies could save key seats and protect key MPs.
Of course, the Conservatives could have a little fun with digital banners too — they could, for example, deliberately target strong remain Labour voters in Cambridge with a deliberate ‘vote Tory for hard Brexit’ message, knowing that it would likely cause wavering Labour voters to switch to Lib Dem… and a split Labour/Lib Dem vote could allow the Conservatives to come through the middle and, almost implausibly, take the seat.
13. Conclusion: Digital is the only way forward for Labour
One of the most fascinating debates in advertising at the moment is the big divide between advocates of ‘big ideas’ and advocates of ‘big data’ – the divide between culture on the one hand (that’s big ideas like the John Lewis Christmas ad) and collateral on the other (that’s things like banner ads and personalised newsletters).
The two strategies I’ve chosen for the two parties sharply illustrate that divide and the different ways in which ‘culture’ and ‘collateral’ can be used to meet specific objectives.
In this election the Conservatives would be best served by a ‘cultural’ strategy of big, attention grabbing stunts and TVCs that sink into the national consciousness — game changers that have the potential to change the political landscape for a generation and detoxify the party.
Labour, on the other hand, would benefit from an agile digital strategy that would enable them to localise and personalise their campaign, quickly increasing spend in constituencies where canvassing data shows they are doing unexpectedly badly, diverting resources from areas where their MPs are safest.
The Conservatives need big, game changing cultural ideas to win big. But for Labour, I genuinely believe digital strategy will be imperative to its survival.
About the author:
I’m an award-winning advertising creative and a bit of an armchair strategist who studied politics at uni, a lifetime ago. I haven’t yet decided who I’ll vote for.
Comments are welcome and I will be glad to answer any further questions you may have or clarify the data that helped to inform these strategies.
