The dichotomy of summer transfers

Allen W
Allen W
Jul 21, 2017 · 5 min read

As two of my endeared clubs, AC Milan and Tottenham Hotspur straddle two extremes in this summer’s transfer market. Milan has gone on a frenzy of purchases that sees no sign of stopping at the moment, with total outlay set to surpass 250m EUR. Spurs on the other hand had ZERO activity so far, apart from selling Kyle Walker to Man City for record-breaking 50m GBP. -250m vs. +50m*GBPEUR! The difference cannot be starker.

On paper, it gives Milanista plenty to dream about, while Spurs fans (myself included) are subconsciously developing sleeping disorder. Yet, as true as earth is round, footballing matters are never as straightforward as they may seem.

On the bright side — it’s now plain to see Milan’s new owner came with a plan. I had my doubt about the ownership (due to the protracted episode of deal closing, which incidentally involved some infamous name in the hedge fund world), but once the paint is dry, their transfer pursuits proved well researched, pragmatic, and executed in a timely fashion.

The early business is almost textbook in term of prioritizing: muscle and quality in midfield, CB pairing for Romagnoli, finally a decent LB, a young CF on the verge of breakthrough, and an affordable X-factor in Calhanoglu. A Marquee signing is required in the playmaker or striker department, which they are taking time to negotiate. More importantly, keeping Donnarumma despite Raiola’s meddling further accredits the new management’s ability to maneuver in the jungle of pro football, casting away the notion that leadership is novice outsider parachuted from Far East. Even the age profiles of the new signings look perfect. To put more icing on the cake — who foresaw Bonucci joining? And for less than 40m?!

On top of all that, the marketing tour in China is a step in the right direction. Milan’s revenue has stagnated for a decade, and it shouldn’t be hard to break the ceiling with vast merchandising potential and, of course, a monstrous Chinese market.

However… one would soon realize that among 10 new signings, only good old Bonucci is a sure bet. Milan has done well in buying within Serie A, but for Silva/Rodriguez/Musacchio/Calhanoglu, adjusting to a new league might take longer than a season. Besides that, integrating 10+ new players into a team is a daunting task for a head coach — in fact, no one — not anyone — did it successfully. If Milan get Morata it would be a confidence booster by any measure, yet they were just priced out of it. Neither Belotti nor Aubameyang represents that sort of game changer for the team. It’s almost safe to say half of the new joiners will become collateral damage, and the real question is how far the remaining half will take Milan (keep in mind the club’s goal is returning to Champions League in one year). That means being in the same level as Juve/Roma/Napoli domestically, while simultaneously competing in Europa League. Will the current new additions be enough? Milan might just edge out Lazio/Inter/Fiorentina, but it’s far from a sure thing.

In short, even if Milan ends up spending upward of 300m, it would take nothing short of a miracle for them to deliver elite performance next season.

And Milan is in such a perilous state that a potential failure is probably disastrous. Milan’s interest payment in 2014 was 11m by one count, a figure that has surely grown since then. New financing involved in closing the deal could easily double what is the existing amount. BTW, the net “profits” of Milan in the last three years are respectively -95m, -89m, and -75m. Team building means expanding wage bills, and business development is not done over night. Without the added revenue from CL, party might be over before it starts.

The summer proceedings also signified the peculiar position Milan is in in attracting top talent. James Rodriguez, a player that fits Milan’s needs who’s presumably available for benign figures, ended up in Bayern on a two-year loan. Why? A project like Milan’s is audacious but risky, and for the A-listers in European football, there are bound to be other, better alternatives.

Now let’s turn to Spurs. While the apparent muteness is annoying, consider the problem set at hand. A settled squad that has been playing at top level for two years, including quite a few young players projected to improve next year. The team has no urgent need for revamp, and with the new stadium being built, there is no reason for splashing big sums on pricey upgrades which may or may not work out.

Even if the competition from other cash-laden members of the ‘big 6’ proves too much next season, there’s no need to despair. The new TV deal kicking in next year means an absence in CL carries much less significance regarding the top line. Then, by 2019, a brand new White Hart Lane will double game day revenue and put club in sustainable footing for a truly world-class wage bill (about triple the size of the current one).

Perhaps the only reason for urgency is that a number of key players are approaching or passing through peak age, and the window of actually winning the league is closing. This is really too much of a good thing — they are supposed to be this good right when the stadium is built, but is basically two years ahead of schedule. So, a measured gamble should be encouraged. But as Spurs fans all know, two years’ wait isn’t really a thing.

There you go. Dream big and throw in all chips in one go? Or exercise patience and be able to constantly dream big down the road? Be sure to let me know your preference. Believe me, I’d want to know.

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Allen W
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