What Collected Behavior Creates Sustainability?

Behavior must be determined by anticipatory cognition, a video by Jack Alpert

For this and other videos in the order Jack would have them viewed, click for a list.

If we modern humans possessed foresight intelligence enough, we might be able to avoid a scarcity induce conflict downward death spiral by rapid population reduction to prevent foreseeable scarcity (e.g. food deliveries without fossil fuel inputs to in effect turn fossil fuels into food) from triggering a death spiral as usual (see last 7 thousand years of history).

Transcript:

0:10
Civilization is not sustainable. Our current financial, religious and government leaders are not trying to attain sustainability, something different leaders could.

However, I believe their leadership positions do not have that power. Instead, the power to attain or degrade sustainability is distributed among 7 billion people, which focuses this video on answering two questions.

0:44
What collected behavior creates a sustainable civilization? And what role does cognition play in obtaining that collection?

To answer these questions consider that when 7.6 billion individuals choose children, housing, transportation, food, education, health care and entertainment, the collected behavior, destroys the environment, collapses civilization and injures our children.

1:16
Let me use a simplified civilization to explain this tragedy. In it, a person needs space to live and food to consume. A person requires time to reproduce. A person has a lifespan, maybe 100 of these reproductive intervals. During an interval 150 units of fluid flow in and 250 units of waste flow out, there is space for 10 people.

1:16
Having room means that after the population exceeds 10, people pile up into two layers. A person on the second layer gets no food and starves to death. Persons that die from starvation or old age, fall to the bottom and are carried away by a waste removal system. However, when the dead bodies are not carried away, they turn the civilization toxic, and all people die.

2:14
Let’s calculate the civilizations injury deaths that result from various collected behavior. I will plot these deaths on several graphs, the time it takes a person to reproduce is this time interval, the blue columns to pick the number of people born in each interval, the red columns of the number of people that die from starvation or poisoning the green columns of the number of people that die of old age.

2:44
Since longevity is 100 intervals, there are no deaths from old age in the first 100 periods. The population is computed by cumulatively adding birth columns injury, death columns, and old age death columns. Notice that a stable population occurs if there are no births or deaths during an interval, or if there are an equal number of births and deaths.

3:15
The cumulative injury line is computed by summing the red columns. Let’s do an example to see who dies of injuries and when in this civilization. At time zero, there is one person in the civilization. The one person reproduces leaving two people at the end of the first interval.

3:39
And during the second interval the to reproduce leaving for the third interval starts with four and ends with eight. Notice there are no injury deaths, and no old age deaths. In the fourth interval when eight births are added to the existing eight, population tries to rise to 16. However, since space allows only 10 of them to reach the food, six starved to death, leaving a population at the beginning of the fifth interval of 10.

4:12
The population curve for the first four intervals looks like this. Then in the fifth, and successive intervals, there are just 10 birsts, and 10 deaths, which lead to a constant population. Summing these injury death counts gives this line. It has a slope of 10 deaths per interval. That’s not nice. It means almost all the people born die of starvation.

4:41
This civilization is a sustainable system, however, with accumulating injury. Next, let’s calculate injury deaths resulting from different collected behavior.

For example, assume through technology, the civilization space can be equipped added to accommodate 20 people.

5:03
After rescaling the population graph we see in the next interval 10 People are born, none die, the population rises to 20. And since no people starve, cumulative injury deaths do not increase looks good, not exactly. During the next interval 20 people give birth temporarily raising the population to 40 not shown.

5:32
Since there is space for only 20, 20 of these 40 die of starvation, leaving a population of 20. In successive intervals, because births equal deaths from starvation, the population remains constant, while doubling space prevented starvation deaths. For one interval, it also doubled the rate of starvation deaths for ever.

Increasing the civilization size to 30, after an interval of no deaths will produce a death rate of 30. A civilization at 40 produces a death rate of 40. A civilization size of 100 could have a death rate of 100. People might hope, if they keep increasing civilization size fast enough, that might never have high death rates. However, there are constraints.

For example, food flow in limits the maximum population, thus, the maximum of starvation deaths per interval, cannot exceed 150.

6:38
Consider another case where these industrious people double the food supply to 300 and double the space to 300, then maybe the max population would be 300 and the max deaths per interval would be 300. Not quite, remember that civilization has a waste removal system of 250.

Once the people die faster than 250 Toxins increase, killing them all. When population rises above 250, it drops to zero.

7:12
Thus far, what have we learned about injury deaths and different collected behavior.

With normal collected procreative behavior, the population expands into either a steady state condition where birsts equal deaths from starvation, or a poisoning condition or all people die. The first is sustainable with continuous injury, and the second is not sustainable and experiences a total die off.

7:44
Consider a different civilization, one which has food for 300 space for 300 waste handling for 300 and one more change. The reproduction time equals a lifetime. That means births equal deaths. The plots with time intervals of lifetimes looks like this. Births equal old age death, injury deaths, each interval would be zero, cumulative injury deaths would be non increasing, and population would be constant.

8:23
The civilization is sustainable, without injury.

To this configuration, where people produce once each lifetime, let’s do some additional behaviors to see who dies of injuries and when. Consider if half the people consume two portions of food and the other half get no food. The fed half reproduce and die of old age and the unfed half starve to death and don’t reproduce. During the first interval, there are 150 births 300 deaths,

9:00
Population declines to 150 cumulative injury deaths increased to 150. And the waste removal system removed to 300 dead bodies. In successive intervals, because births equal old age deaths and there are no more injury deaths. The population of 150 remains constant. This configuration after experiencing a one time die off transitions to a new sustainable state without future deaths.

9:35
Next, consider another configuration. In this configuration. The people eat one unit of food each reproduce once per lifetime, but uniquely half the people occupy twice their normal space. The aggressive space consumers move the remaining people to the second layer where there is no food and each of them starves to death.

It graphs a lot like the civilization where people eat twice the food that 2x space consumers survive to reproduce and die of old age.

10:13
Those relegated to the no food level die of starvation and don’t reproduce. During the first interval the world experiences 150 births, 300 deaths, population declines to 150 and cumulative deaths rise to 150. During future intervals, because births equal old age deaths, and there are no further injury deaths, population holds constant.

10:41
The system suffering once from the change in space utilization behaviors, has transitioned to a sustainable state without further injuries.

Actually, a civilization can achieve sustainability without future injury deaths at many different space utilizations or food consumption levels. For example, if part of the group utilize three times or four times the space or food, the population, that interval would decline respectively, and cumulative deaths would increase respectively.

11:22
However, after the initial interval, each would be sustainable without future deaths. Thus far, we have shown that a civilizations injury deaths vary with changes in size, food flow in, waste flow out, reproduction interval relative to lifespan, and individual consumption.

11:46
We have identified collective behavior that cause sustainable populations for one time injury deaths, continuing injury deaths, no injury deaths, that that is everyone dies of old age, and we have discovered behaviors and civilization conditions where entire populations die off.

12:10
All these paths forward resulted from the collective behavior of people, each of whom is using a primitive set of cognitive abilities, and a small repertoire behavior that included procreation, food consumption, and space utilization. However, if we expanded these abilities, and behaviors, then the collective behavior of these people could produce other paths forward.

12:39
Consider what new outcomes could occur. If the people added the physical abilities to kill each other, steal from each other, hoard space or food, destroy stores, disrupt food production or diminished world services.

Consider what new outcomes could occur if they added cognitive abilities like perception of relative and absolute well being, memory of previous conditions, comparison of these memories to present conditions, inference to predict future conditions based on environmental structure and various behavior and choice among alternative behaviors.

13:23
With these additions, people could produce many new pathways, some good, like advancement of technology, art, science, health care, education, social networks that facilitate economies of scale specialization of labor and trade.

13:42
Some bad like increasing social conflict destruction of infrastructure, diminishment of environmental services. Now, let’s use the simple civilization to answer this question. Can these additions create a set of collective behavior that maintains a constant population and produces no injury?

14:05
Remember that a group’s collective behavior is the sum of the behaviors chosen by its members. Also, that each member performs many behaviors. Some of these behaviors are of particular importance in creating sustainable and non injury producing civilizations. Let me focus on the ones that allow a person to lift his or her personal well being above subsistence.

14:35
Some people are more successful lifting than others. This results in a community that has hierarchy.

Perception of this hierarchy motivates a variety of new behaviors. For example, increasing efficiency changes the hierarchy without causing injury, a person killing another and taking supporting resource stream improve has its own well being and causes a one time injury.

15:04
If a person takes part of another support, and the second person does not die, injury is recurring each time period. And when a person’s behaviors create toxins both he and another person is injured. However, neither knows what action caused the injury. What happens when two extensions were together? For example, one person steals another’s resources to improve his or her well being, and the losing person perceives the actors action and feels the loss.

15:39
The combination results in a behavior not present in the previous world. Conflict, conflict behaviors, killing, hoarding, destroying stores, disrupting productive systems and diminishing the environment have the added effect of diverting civilization supporting resources to conflict, which lowers everyone’s well being.

What is more insidious is that the increase in scarcity is perceived and initiates more conflict, which increases more scarcity.

16:14
This scarcity conflict death spiral once started, keeps going until all the people are dead, and the civilization collapses. The only way to prevent this outcome is to not trip the death spiral.

The important question for this simple civilization sustainability is can these cognitive additions discover the death spiral structure embedded in it and use the perception to implement collected behavior that does not trip it?

16:50
Let me give one large caveat. Discovering the loop structure cannot depend on experience, because that would mean the loop is tripped.

And the simple civilization is on its way to total destruction. Instead, I propose a process that depends on building and using abstractions to implement discovery of the loop structure, and then using the loop structure for identifying the behavior that prevents tripping it the product of this discovery activity I call anticipatory behavior.

17:28
Let’s use a simple civilization to describe how anticipatory behaviors prevent injury and produce sustainability. First, let’s investigate what unfolds when there are no cognitive or behavioral addictions and thus no chance of having anticipatory behavior. With these foods, space waste and reproductive parameters, collective behavior creates constant population, constant consumption, no inequity and no conflict.

18:02
This civilization is sustainable and produces no injuries.

Consider what happens if delivered food is reduced by 15 units, then 15 people starved to death 15 People don’t reproduce and the remaining 295 attain a new level of sustainability without further injury.

However, when people have these additional abilities, the decrease in food delivery trips, a scarcity conflict death spiral and 300 people die.

18:36
Are there any collected behavior that could have prevented the death spiral? I can think of one. If collected behavior contracted the population to 285 before food deliveries dropped, then the loss of food delivery does not increase scarcity and does not trip the scarcity, conflict death spiral.

In this case, anticipatory behavior prevents injuries, when anticipatory behaviors can track population, before the existence of a decrease in space, or a decrease in waist capacity or an increase in consumption or an increase in inequity, then these changes create no injury.

19:27
One might conclude that in this simple civilization, using anticipatory behavior to reduce population is the most powerful way to prevent injury and produce sustained ability. Next, let’s extend what we have learned in this simple civilization to humans living on Earth.

19:51
We live in a filled up world, behaviors that increase population kill people, behaviors that increase consumption kill people. Behaviors that increase inequity kill people, behaviors that increase technology, but don’t prevent expanding into constraints, kill people. We live in a world where supporting services are in decline.

20:17
This means less oil, coal and uranium, less soil, fish and forests, less mineable minerals and metals, less atmosphere and ocean services. And these losses in support, kill people. We live in a world where people kill each other, cultures sanction killing, and institutions commit mass murder.

We live in a world where conflict creates scarcity by diverting resources to making war, destroying production systems and by having to repair what is broken.

20:55
Since increasing scarcity creates increasing conflict and increasing conflict creates increasing scarcity. Our world has a built in scarcity conflict, death spiral.

21:06
Once triggered a collapse of civilization. It starves to death or kills in conflict, almost everyone who lives after 2030 It makes our survivors live without medicine, electric lights or running water.

21:22
And because it lowers our ability to access energy, it prevents our survivors from rebuilding today’s technology.

Of course, according to the simple civilization, the most powerful tool to prevent this death spiral and avoid these injuries is anticipatory behavior. And the most powerful anticipatory behavior contracts human footprint fast enough to prevent scarcity, even with shrinking supporting services.

21:52
To accommodate these shrinking services. Anticipatory calculations suggest global population may have to decrease from 7.6 billion people to 50 million by 2100.

This much smaller population might be supported at a high tech lifestyle, and be both sustainable and produce no injury.

22:15
Our anticipatory calculation suggests that the 50 million people would be distributed within three hydro powered enclaves.

That each enclaves production activities must rely on recycling of non renewable resources, not extracting them.

22:34
Not depend on any exhaustible resources coal, oil, gas or uranium, and consume less than the Earth’s annual production of renewables, soil, water, oceans and air.

And that the collective behavior limit births to deaths.

22:56
Limit stratification of well being to below that which produces conflict assigns the ownership of supporting resources to the next 100 generations. Current individuals only lease these resources from the ownership body and then only if she or he can return them in the state of issue.

23:18
Can humans get themselves to take the anticipatory behaviors that would transition to and maintain a sustainable, not injury producing civilization?

It all depends on our abilities to give meaning to injuries before they occur, visualized, collected behavior that avoid the injuries and motivate the earth existing constituency to implement a social contract that creates these collective behavior.

23:47
What has this simple civilization taught us? Sustainability without injury requires anticipatory behavior, and the anticipatory behavior must produce —

Population decline fast enough to prevent the scarcity that trips, a scarcity conflict desperate.

The End

— — — — — — — — — — — — — — — — — — — — — — — — — — — — — —

Anticipating — foreseeing — future injury is what K-strategists do, whether because their genes tell them, or their genes and memes (K-culture) tells them. Hominins with an intact K-culture and genetic endowment from their K-strategist ancestors (e.g. wild Norway rats vs lab rats) can live within limits ‘naturally’ (see John B. Calhoun’s first experiment).

We expansionist r-culture form of human cannot. Wolves are functional K-strategists. Domestic dogs (devolved to r-strategists), when they go feral (e.g. Chernobyl Exclusion Zone) over breed and there are many injury deaths as the years and decades go by.

Perhaps within a few millennia, feral dogs will either renormalize to live like wolves or as coyotes do to produce enough offspring to replace deaths to maintain a population under environmental carrying capacity, something we modern techno-industrialized domesticants cannot do without placing a high value on foresight intelligence and rapidly developing anticipatory behaviors by meta-reflective intent, which will require renormalizing as K-culture hominins.

SUBNOTE 2/6/2024

I wish to feature an extraordinary comment, a piece of work — in apprehension, how like a god:

Your autistic analysis dances around the metaphysics for cycles of virtue and vice, which requires the linguistics of spirituality, morality and philosophy to reach adequate attempts at scenario analysis that allow for anticipatory foresight to contextualize the cultural zeitgeist that must be reoriented to not trip the wire of the existential death spiral. Long autistic analysis short…you have to manifest internal values projected and applied outward to change the flows of materials in imaginative ways…without the capitalist assumptions for artificial scarcity that lead to sanguine death spirals of murder and fucking...imagine that?