Syria : A case of Global Warning
…And it all started with a drought and a spring.
Like with any other thing Syrian Civil war too has many factors behind it and one such factor is Climate Change. Now, you must be wondering how Global Warming a.k.a Climate Change can be the reason behind this or for that matter any War at all? Here is how it is possible:
According to a tree ring study of Syria conducted by NASA and University of Arizona between year 2006 and 2010 Syria suffered it’s worst drought in 500 years. A research published in Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences states that this extreme drought occurred because of century long trend towards warmer and drier conditions in Eastern Mediterranean. And this change according to the paper was result of increase in emission of greenhouse gases rather than natural variants. To support their claim they conducted a computer based simulation where an increase in greenhouse gases in the region leads to a weakening of moisture laden winds from Mediterranean Sea and rise in temperature that results in evaporation of whatever moisture that area already had.
The worst ever recorded Eastern Mediterranean drought lead to the death of 60% Syrian farms and 80% livestock. President Bashar al -Assad’s government offered little help. The drought relief policies and other socio-economic policies were framed to benefit those who are close to government. For example the rights to dig well were given to those who are close to government forcing others to dig illegal wells. This resulted in internal displacement of around 1.5 million people from rural to already overcrowded urban areas.
Urban cities like Daraa were already over exhausted because of Iraq War refugees. This along with internal migration of people, ongoing drought and no help from government created several problems in bigger cities. This includes shortage of water, lack of infrastructure, high youth unemployment rate and a fall in GDP to 3.3% only.

All of this coincided with ‘Arab Spring’ where citizens of North African and Middle Eastern countries were holding violent and non-violent protests against their respective authoritarian and corrupted governments.
On 16th February, 2011 15 school boys aged between 13–15 years drew several anti-government graffiti on their school building. One such graffiti drawn below principle’s office window said ‘Your turn, Doctor’. Doctor here referred to President al-Assad as he is an ophthalmologist. The graffiti meant that under ongoing wave of Arab Spring the next turn of defeat will be of Assad’s. These 15 boys also torched a nearby police booth replicating what was happening in other Arab countries. All 15 boys were arrested by the local police next day. They were sent to jail and were tortured. Assad’s police is famous worldwide for their torture skills. They made all teenagers to sleep naked on freezing wet mattresses, electrocuted them and hung them upside down for hours.
Some say that the kids were deeply political while others say that what they did was just a teenage prank. Whatever, maybe the reason behind all this, this wasn’t the first time such graffiti emerged in Syria. In fact it was so common that Syrians had to give ID proof to buy a spray can. But what made these teenagers stand out was that they all belong to influential families of Daraa. And Daraa is a close knitted small town where everyone knows everyone. So, whole town erupted in protest to rescue these teens.
Syrian government which is used to authoritarian rule tried to curb these protest with brutal force. This further agitated Syrians who were already frustrated from biggest ever recorded drought and it’s implications. The whole country erupted in sustained violent protest against what happened in Daraa. Soon, these protests turned into what we know today as ‘Syrian Civil War’.
According to observers of Arab Spring these kind of protests were never supposed to make much impact on al-Assad government. The Time Magazine quoted on initial protests that ‘Demonstration in Syria are unlikely to pick up anywhere near enough momentum to seriously threaten the regime of President Bashar al-Assad Government.’ The international security analysts were sure that the Syria was immune to Arab Spring as Bashar al-Assad’s government had held Syria under one the most oppressive but steady regime.
So, what went wrong here? What did these experts missed? Was the war entirely a result of politics gone wrong? Or Global Warming too had a role to play in one of the worst ever Civil War?
Whatever maybe the reason was one thing is sure that analysts downplayed the role of climate change and drought in the life of Syrians. They shouldn’t have ignored the impact of drought when in a span of 5 years it caused internal displacement of 1.5 million people. They should have understood that the situation must have been really worse to cause migration on such a massive scale. That the farmers must have nothing left with them which forced them to leave the land they love and live for. That those 1.5 million people must have been really frustrated from their government and themselves. That after 40 years of oppressive leadership this drought must have been the ultimate unhinging stressor for Syria.
Now even if this war ends in Syria and it’s political situation will become better Syria will loose 50% more of their agricultural capacity by 2050. And if the current rate of emission of greenhouse gases will continue more drought will come and water scarcity will continue. I urge you all to wake up now before it becomes too late for you and your country as well. Let Syria be a lesson for all of us. Let us look at bigger picture. Let us look beyond politics. Let us look what really matters. A healthy Sustainable Living Condition. Remember every single effort matters. Start today. Start now.
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