When I Heard “Gallup” And Thoughts On Debate Format
I heard Gallup selected the undecided voters for the October 9 town hall debate between Clinton and Trump.
The Commission on Presidential Debates worked with Gallup, a research and polling company, to randomly select uncommitted registered voters from the area around St. Louis, where the debate is being held.
As soon as I heard this I instantly thought of Gallup excruciatingly horrible 2012 pre-presidential election polling between Obama and Romney. I looked up just how bad it was. It was not good.
Here is Gallup’s final polling prediction:
Here was the final popular vote:
Yeah, not even close as you can see.
I would be curious if Gallup has changed their methodology in any way since 2012 election. Either way, did it affect who were those “uncommitted registered voters” at the town hall. (Gallup did give us Kenneth Bone. The man, the legend. #KenBone2020).
Not that it matters, but it would be interesting to know.
But it really didn’t matter. The town hall questions were split between the moderators and the uncommitted registered voters Gallup selected. Therefore, only a handful of questions even came from the uncommitted registered voters.
That is where I question the format for a 90-minute debate. Martha Raddatz and Anderson Cooper did good, but I would have preferred that more questions be elicited from the town hall attendees and then let the moderators refine or hold the candidate to their questions. Either make it a pure debate (but not a Lincoln-Douglass), or make it a town hall . . . but not both.
On a side note, I predict that Martha Raddatz will be a moderator again in 2012. This was her third debate (including VP debates), and I think she might have a better grasp than any other person around.