The latest episode of the Hashr8 Podcast features three guests very well known in the community — Matt D’Souza, CEO of Blockware Solutions, Christopher Bendiksen, Head of Research of CoinShares and Wolfie Zhao, Asia Editor at CoinDesk.
This is a wide ranging discussion on the state of Bitcoin mining both now and what’s to come in the next 6–12 months.
The content is rather dense with valuable information, and as such it doesn’t lend itself well to brief excerpts. However here are a few of highly-informative moments from the episode:
“Christopher Bendiksen: [18:17]: I also think Matt touches on a really important point here when he says that the supply doesn’t hit the market evenly, and that is exactly what we saw on March 12th when every single Bitcoin-collateralized loan got blown up at the same time and all of a sudden all that supply which has kind of been pent up. So for audiences who may not know how this works: so if you’re a miner, say that you post 100 Bitcoin as collateral at $10,000, that works out to be a million dollars, so if you post a 100 Bitcoin worth a million dollars to these lenders you can borrow, call it, $6 million in cash or stablecoin, immediately, and so long as the value of that collateral doesn’t fall below 100%, ever, you don’t get liquidated and you pay back your cash later or you let the loan roll over. …
The next 5 years are critical and the next 12 years are defining.
Everything hangs on the next 4 and a half years, or more specifically, the next two halvings. Within 12 years, we will know if Bitcoin is a failed experiment or a thriving parallel economy ecosystem. There is no real in-between.
Originally, Bitcoin was designed as a carefully balanced incentive system between three groups of people:
Users provide two wildly different use cases:
Store of Value (SOV) — or HODLers. Users who believe in the long term value proposition compared to traditional investment vehicles, or even dislike the fiat currency supply growth and/or price inflation.
Medium of Exchange (MOE) — or people who transact in Bitcoin. This could be many individual use cases, ranging from product purchase to exchange speculation. …
This article attempts to translate my understanding of the macroeconomics of cryptoasset mining into a deductive, simple, but quantifiable model with clear feedback loops.
There is currently no united framework, which could describe the economics of cryptoasset mining. Mining economics can get hard to conceptualize due to hidden variables, which become backbreaking if ignored.
I believe there are four main variables in play, which influence each other in a direct, circular fashion. There are indirect or weaker interactions between the variables in on-circular fashion, which we can explore later, however, the base model is sufficient without their consideration.