Revolutionizing Airpower: How Lessons from Industrial AI Can Shape the Future of Sixth-Generation Fighters
When I founded SparkCognition over a decade ago, the skepticism from large industrial entities about AI’s potential to outperform human experts was palpable. I remember being laughed at in not one, but multiple early customer meetings. “AI can do better than forty years of human experience? Yeah, right!”
Yet, today, AI systems have surpassed human capabilities in areas like vibration analysis and detecting failures and performance anomalies that the trained human eye would miss. This journey from disbelief to acceptance mirrors the evolving landscape of military technology, especially as we venture into the development of sixth-generation fighter aircraft. These advanced platforms promise to redefine air superiority with capabilities that seemed like science fiction not so long ago, so get ready for the skeptics!
The integration of artificial intelligence into sixth-generation fighters is not just an enhancement; it’s a transformation. These aircraft are set to incorporate advanced stealth technologies, providing unprecedented situational awareness and the flexibility to perform both manned and unmanned missions. The defining features — advanced digital capabilities, high-capacity networking, AI, data fusion, and cyber warfare capabilities — are aimed at delivering superior battlefield command, control, and communications. The vision for these fighters includes optionally manned operations, where the same airframe can conduct piloted, remote-controlled, or onboard AI-controlled missions, offering a glimpse into the future of autonomous warfare.
Nearly a decade ago, General John R. Allen and I began exploring the concept of Hyperwar. This idea emphasized the imminent collapse of the OODA (Observe, Orient, Decide, Act) loop and the potential for militaries to relinquish human control over AI to achieve faster response times. Despite the skepticism and outright disbelief from many experts who couldn’t fathom AI performing complex military functions or being trusted with autonomous decisions, recent conflicts, such as in Ukraine, have proven the critics wrong. The acceleration towards autonomy on the battlefield is undeniable, underscoring the rapid pace at which AI and autonomy are reshaping military strategies.
The sixth-generation fighter’s operational versatility and strategic implications are profound. Moving away from traditional dogfighting to a broader strategy that includes ground support, cyber warfare, and space capabilities, these aircraft are designed for the modern battlefield, where beyond-visual-range engagements and network-centric warfare are the norms. These systems might well be aircraft flying in the aerial domain, but as weapon systems, they will simultaneously be operating in many domains; cyber, information, EM, space and more. The integration of AI into these platforms will enable a “data-to-decision” capability, transforming battles into highly coordinated, AI-driven engagements.
The path to realizing these advanced fighters will not be easy and will often present significant challenges. The complexity and cost of integrating cutting-edge technologies, including AI, into military aircraft are non-trivial, particularly in the US where military systems development costs have been spiraling out of control. Drawing from my experiences with SparkCognition and the discussions around Hyperwar, it’s clear that the transition to AI-driven capabilities in military aviation will face resistance from those accustomed to traditional approaches. Yet, as we have seen in the industrial domain, leadership must remain committed to aggressively pursuing AI and autonomy to maintain a competitive edge. Our military leaders must insist that they are looking for a future that is different from the past. Yes, one informed by the past, but not one shackled to those norms. They must also insist that cutting-edge development can happen more quickly and at a lower cost than we are accustomed to. Without low cost, there is an inherent constraint on our ability to scale. That can be fatal in an actual confrontation.
The game-theoretic model of AI application in the field of battle adds another layer of complexity. The invisibility of your opponent’s software capabilities means that assumptions about the enemy’s advancements will drive nations to fully enable their own technological potential, creating a spiral of advancement and counter-advancement. This reality dictates the strategic necessity of embracing AI and autonomy in developing sixth-generation fighters.
Alongside many other current military advancements, the development of sixth-generation fighters represents a critical next step in military aviation, in which the integration of AI and autonomous systems will become all-important. Drawing lessons from the industrial adoption of AI and the gradual acceptance of the Hyperwar hypothesis, it’s important that the future of air superiority be shaped by our willingness to embrace significant change, and overcome techno-laggard skepticism while fully leveraging the capabilities of artificial intelligence. These crucial lessons, if adopted, will guide the journey from sci-fi disbelief to powerful realized capabilities that embody the transformative potential of Artificial Intelligence in the skies.
