The Future of Pakistan’s Air Power: Transforming the Fleet for the Age of Unmanned Warfare

The Pakistan Air Force (PAF) stands at a very interesting juncture in its history. For the first time, it is equipped with a qualitative edge at considerable scale. And at the same time, it has hundreds of still-capable airframes coming up for a potential retirement. The confluence of these factors provide the PAF with an opportunity to make a leap forward that could redefine its capabilities and global standing.

With a current fleet that includes over 180 BVR equipped JF-17s, nearly 75 F-16s, and 36 J-10s, the PAF already has a sizable high-end force. The launch of the PFX (Pakistan Fighter Experimental) program and announced future acquisition of J-31 stealth fighters will further strengthen Pakistan’s air defense capabilities for years to come. However, the true measure of an air force’s strength lies not just in new acquisitions but in its ability to seize the initiative, innovate and maximize the potential of all its assets.

In this article we consider the potential for a bold strategy that the PAF could adopt: repurposing its retiring aircraft, particularly over 200 Mirage and F-7/F-7PG airframes, into unmanned combat aerial vehicles (UCAVs). This approach could potentially revolutionize Pakistan’s air power while providing a cost-effective solution to fleet modernization.

The Global Context: Collaborative Combat Aircraft (CCA)

To understand the significance of this proposed approach, it’s crucial to examine the global context of unmanned aerial combat development, particularly the concept of Collaborative Combat Aircraft (CCA). The United States and other major powers are investing heavily in this technology, seeing it as the future of air warfare.

U.S. Air Force Secretary Frank Kendall has provided valuable insights into the potential costs of these advanced platforms. According to Kendall, high-end CCA platforms could cost approximately one-third the price of an F-35, putting their potential price tag in the $30–40 million range. While these advanced platforms offer cutting-edge capabilities, their cost may be prohibitive for many air forces, including Pakistan’s.

The U.S. Air Force’s CCA program aims to develop unmanned aircraft that can operate alongside manned fighters, bombers, and other assets. These aircraft are expected to perform a variety of missions, including:

1. Serving as loyal wingmen to manned aircraft
2. Conducting independent intelligence, surveillance, and reconnaissance (ISR) missions
3. Electronic warfare and jamming
4. Serving as weapons trucks to extend the range and payload of manned aircraft
5. Acting as decoys to confuse and saturate enemy air defenses

Major aerospace companies are actively developing CCA platforms:

• Boeing’s Airpower Teaming System, developed in collaboration with the Royal Australian Air Force, demonstrates the potential of purpose-built loyal wingman aircraft.
• Kratos Defense’s XQ-58A Valkyrie is a low-cost, high-performance unmanned aerial vehicle designed to operate alongside manned aircraft.
• General Atomics, known for its Predator and Reaper drones, has entered the loyal wingman arena with its Avenger RPA, offering significant payload capacity and high-altitude operation.

The Case for Unconventional Innovation in Pakistan

While Pakistan has not officially announced any plans to convert its retiring aircraft into UCAVs, there are compelling reasons why such a strategy could be beneficial:

PAC Kamra specializes in maintaining, rebuilding and upgrading Mirages and has all the capability necessary to transform this platform into an unmanned aircraft.

1. Cost-Effectiveness: With limited defense budgets, converting existing platforms could provide advanced capabilities at a fraction of the cost of new acquisitions.
2. Leveraging Existing Assets: The PAF already possesses the infrastructure, training, and maintenance capabilities for these airframes.
3. Rapid Implementation: Modifying existing aircraft could potentially be faster than developing or acquiring entirely new unmanned systems.
4. Technological Advancement: This project could spur innovation in Pakistan’s aerospace industry, potentially leading to exportable technologies.
5. Strategic Advantage: A large fleet of converted UCAVs could provide Pakistan with unique tactical and strategic options.

This strategy builds on Pakistan’s history of technological innovation in defense. In the mid-1990s, Pakistan demonstrated its ability to develop sophisticated avionics systems by creating an indigenous Forward-Looking Infrared (FLIR) pod for its Mirage aircraft. This achievement showcased Pakistan’s capacity to create solutions tailored to its specific needs and operational environment.

The F-7PG as a Low-Cost, High-Speed UCAV

The F-7PG, while approaching the end of its service life as a manned fighter, could hold immense potential as an unmanned platform. If the PAF were to consider converting these aircraft into unmanned “loyal wingmen,” it could gain several advantages:

1. High-speed performance: As a supersonic interceptor, the F-7PG can achieve speeds that make it well-suited for rapid response or high-speed penetration missions.
2. Small radar cross-section: Its compact size could make it effective in evading enemy air defenses.
3. Cost-effectiveness: The conversion of existing airframes could significantly reduce financial burden compared to acquiring new CCAs.

By removing human-centric systems from the F-7PGs, these aircraft could see substantial weight reductions, potentially translating to increased payload capacity and extended range. Integrating Pakistan’s Link-17 data link system into these unmanned F-7PGs could create a network of agile, unmanned combat aerial vehicles.

In practical terms, this could allow formations of JF-17s or F-16s to be supported by a group of unmanned F-7PGs. The manned fighters could direct the unmanned aircraft, extending the PAF’s engagement range without risking pilot lives. Moreover, the relatively low cost of these converted F-7PGs means they could be employed in higher-risk scenarios where the potential loss of a $30–40 million CCA might be deemed unacceptable.

Expanding the Role of Mirage Aircraft

The Mirage III and Mirage 5 aircraft in Pakistan’s inventory could offer another opportunity for transformation. Their robust design and high-speed, high-altitude performance could make them suitable candidates for conversion into unmanned reconnaissance and strike platforms.

Potential roles for unmanned Mirages could include:

1. Autonomous anti-ship operations
2. High-altitude reconnaissance
3. Long-range strike missions
4. Electronic warfare platforms

The potential for high-altitude operations using the SEPR rocket motor could open up possibilities for engaging high-altitude targets or even satellites, potentially positioning Pakistan among a select group of nations with near-space operational capabilities.

Enhancing Capabilities through Advanced Sensors

The transformation of these aircraft wouldn’t be limited to removing the pilot; it could involve enhancing their capabilities through cutting-edge sensors and avionics. Building on its experience with FLIR pod development, Pakistan could create a new generation of advanced sensor packages.

These modern systems, combined with other sensors like advanced radars and electronic intelligence systems, could turn both the F-7PGs and Mirages into highly capable intelligence, surveillance, and reconnaissance platforms.

When integrated into a network-centric warfare system, these platforms could provide real-time intelligence and targeting data, significantly enhancing the situational awareness and combat effectiveness of the entire force.

Implications for the Force

The implications of this modernization strategy could be far-reaching:

1. Fleet Expansion: By repurposing retiring aircraft, the PAF could significantly expand its fleet size, potentially making it the largest since 1947.
2. Cost-Effective Force Multiplication: This approach could allow for a dramatic increase in capabilities without the enormous costs typically associated with fleet expansion.
3. Enhanced Strategic Options: The development of long-range, unmanned strike capabilities could provide Pakistan with improved power projection abilities.
4. Technological Advancement: The experience gained could position Pakistan as a developer and potentially an exporter of unmanned aerial combat systems.
5. Regional Balance: The psychological impact of fielding such a large and technologically advanced air force could contribute significantly to regional stability.

Doctrinal Considerations

Converting manned aircraft to unmanned platforms will involve complex but surmountable engineering challenges. The more significant challenge will be to ensure seamless integration of these converted platforms with existing manned aircraft and command structures.

This will most certainly entail new doctrines of employment and new operational concepts that would effectively utilize these unmanned assets and ideate over the potential of an expanded range of regional scenarios in which the PAF will be able to apply itself.

Pilots and ground crews will also require extensive training to operate in this new environment of mixed manned/unmanned operations. But since this quite certainly the future of air combat, the sooner the better.

Conclusion

A strategy that entails transforming retiring aircraft into advanced unmanned platforms can be a bold approach to air power modernization. By focusing on cost-effective solutions and leveraging existing assets, Pakistan will enhance its Air Force in a manner that is both economically viable and technologically advanced.

This approach, while different from (and perhaps, complimentary to) the high-cost CCA programs of the United States, demonstrates that innovation and strategic thinking can level the playing field in air power development. As Pakistan stands at this crossroads, the choices made today could shape the future of not just its air force, but its position in the region and the world.

By considering modernization and innovation, Pakistan has the opportunity to write a new chapter of relevance and capability. The success of such a program could not only enhance Pakistan’s national security but also position it as a more relevant regional player capable of projecting conventional forces in a much larger theatre and a leader in cost-effective, high-technology aviation solutions.