There are some benefits to being the smallest kid in the block. Being small often means being agile, flexible, and nimble. Micromobility proves exactly that: it progresses more quickly than the heavier vehicles, and hence it is quicker to adapt new technologies and adjust to new consumer trends. It is no surprise that what micromobility achieved in a matter of 1–2 years, will probably take the auto industry a decade or more to achieve — both in terms of technology adoption and user adoption.
Given the light-speed pace of change in the micromobility industry, it is worthwhile to recap on how the industry evolved recently, and how it will continue to evolve in the long run (in micromobility terms) — i.e. next year.
2018–2019: shared micromobility
2018 and 2019 saw the explosion of the ride-sharing companies.
Well, it actually started earlier in many areas around the world. China’s bike-sharing scheme took off in late 2016, and enjoyed millions of regular users before declining in 2017 due to illegal parking, vandalism and traffic violations, and then gradually peaking again.
Generally speaking, however, in 2018 most residents of global cities could not ignore the movements of shared E-bikes, and in 2019, could not the explosion of shared E-scooters. Bird, a company founded in 2017, became the fastest ‘Unicorn’ ever, and Lime had more than 10 million rides in 2018 alone, ten times more than the previous year. 84 million trips were taken on shared micromobility in the US, more than doubling the number of trips in 2017. 2019 saw the drastic rise of E-scooters, growing to ~5m regular users worldwide, a +166% growth compared to the previous year.
Regulation also changed in many cities to accommodate shared micromobility companies. Cities worldwide were somewhat traumatised by the boom of ride-hailing services such as Uber and Lyft, companies that often deployed ‘launch now, ask question later’ tactics, and started operating without engaging with city stakeholders. Only later, cities realised that they were left stranded to pick up the nuisance of increased congestion and pollution, sophisticated tax schemes and lower pay and reduced job security for drivers. To avoid similar consequences, cities worldwide acted rather quickly to regulate shared micromobility companies, including agreeing vehicle and operational caps, licence fees, data sharing agreement, and other mechanisms. This proactive regulatory approach benefitted all: cities, shared micromobility companies and residents.
2020: infrastructure
2020 is very likely to go down in the history books as the year of coronavirus, as the pandemic eclipses all aspects of our lives. Industry-wise, there will be many losers, and some winners. Micromobility will be a winner.
And as far as micromobility is concerned, 2020 will be remembered as the year in which public authorities and cities understood that they need to embrace micromobility. As a personal, sterile mobility option that does not increase congestion and has minimal environmental footprint, micromobility will benefit from coronavirus (read my previous article on this topic here).
Cities around the world took the opportunity to massively expand cycling lanes, reducing road space reserved for cars and parked cars, and re-llocating it to cyclists and pedestrians. What cycling enthusiasts, transport planners and environmentalists advocated for during the last few decades, happened across the globe in a matter of weeks, from Paris and Milan, to Bogotá, New Zealand, and USA.
In fact, 2020 is shaping up to be the year in which micromobility transitioned from a niche transport mode, to a mainstream option, embraced by cities and the public alike.
2021: vehicles
Given the unprecedented disruption to our everyday lives caused by COVID-19, it is imprudent to make predictions about the future. But it doesn’t mean that we cannot try…
My guess is that with the increased demand for micromobility vehicles, improved infrastructure and limited public transport alternatives, the micromobility market segment will draw more investments from vehicle manufacturers. More than that, micromobility will finally draw the attention of both automotive and tech giants, given the market size and room for disruption. This can not only lower costs and increased quality of existing vehicles, but also provide more options that are not currently available. Besides feature and form factor improvements, what can be some of the additional capabilities we might see on the roads in the next few years to come? Below are three options that can represent the future of micromobility:
Safety and ADAS: more than half of all road traffic deaths are among vulnerable road users: pedestrians, cyclists and motorcyclists. Safety concerns are amongst the key challenges to wider micromobility adoption. It is clear that allocating appropriate and segregated road space will improve micromobility safety — and many cities are currently on track to deliver these improvements. Advanced Driver Assistance Systems (ADAS) already made huge improvements to car safety, and it will not be any surprise if simplified, cost-effective, micro-versions of these tools will be integrated into micromobility vehicles. Think about automated or driver-assisted breaking systems, automatic bells or warning lights, automatic turn indicators, hazard detection cameras or sensors, and stability control solutions. Even a subset of these components can greatly increase safety, resulting an increased micromobility user uptake.
Tele-operations and semi-autonomous vehicles: what if idle E-bikes could drive themselves to the nearest charging station, re-charge, and then re-position themselves so they can be closer to in-demand areas? That can greatly increase operational efficiency and therefore reduce costs for consumers and improve user experience. Well, these capabilities already exist, and are operational in an Atlanta suburb, where on-demand shared E-scooters are summoned via an app, and tele-operated from a control centre in Mexico City. If proven successful, these capabilities can be introduced globally, especially in restricted areas such as universities and industrial parks.
Different types of vehicles: what is common to E-bikes, E-scooters, mopeds and other prevalent micromobility vehicles? They are all modifications of vehicles that existed decades ago. These incremental feature changes are a typical early stage for new inventions, where new capabilities are somewhat ‘hidden’ by trying to emulate obsolete concepts: the first cell phone resembled line phone and was essentially an in-car phone, the first radio was used as a wireless telegram initially, etc. But other options exist, and new disruptors can easily re-imagine what micromobility might look like: improved battery capacity and charging experience, weatherproofing the vehicle, improving rider experience, and other options. This can make the micromobility market more inclusive, attracting additional customer segments such as disabled persons and older population. Who will create the Tesla of micromobility?
Over to you — what other types of vehicles we might see in the future?
