Can President Trump Avoid Sabotaging the U.S.-Japan Alliance?
By Michael H. Fuchs and Brian Harding
On February 10, Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo Abe will come to the United States to meet with President Donald Trump, marking the first meeting between the prime minister and Mr. Trump since the inauguration and the second since the U.S. presidential election. But will Mr. Trump recognize a good thing when he sees it and not damage one of America’s most critical alliances?
The U.S.-Japan alliance is crucial to American interests in East Asia and around the world. Transformed from enemies to friends, today the alliance is the cornerstone of security in East Asia, with Japan hosting 54,000 U.S. troops that help preserve an increasingly fragile regional peace. And Japan is no freeloader: Tokyo pays $4 billion annually to support U.S. presence, making the arrangement more cost effective than having these forces stationed in the United States
Beyond the immediate neighborhood, Japan routinely supports the United States in combating international threats, whether fighting Ebola or terrorism, supporting peacekeeping operations, or providing massive monetary support for stabilization after U.S. military interventions. Furthermore, Japan stands with the United States in supporting human rights and democratic values around the world.
Japan also has more than $400 billion invested in the United States, directly supporting nearly one million jobs. And the American people value the alliance, with opinion polls showing exceptional public affinity for Japan, a dramatic turnaround from the 1980s.
President Trump, however, doesn’t see the alliance this way.
Instead, Mr. Trump believes Japan is ripping off the United States economically and strategically, and claims that Japan doesn’t do enough to support the alliance. Mr. Trump sees the alliance as a protection racket. This rhetoric has sown doubts in Japan about the reliability of the United States.
So when Prime Minister Abe and President Trump meet this week, will they reaffirm the U.S.-Japan alliance? Or will Mr. Trump continue his dangerous attempts at destabilizing America’s alliances?
Already, Prime Minister Abe has tried to adapt to the Trump era and bring Mr. Trump around to the inherent wisdom of the alliance. Abe was the first foreign leader to meet with Mr. Trump after the election, after which he called Trump a “trustworthy leader.” Now, Abe is reportedly coming to the United States bearing gifts, including the possibility of Japanese investments in the United States to highlight the benefits of economic engagement.
But Mr. Trump’s first weeks in office have not sent encouraging signals back to Abe.
In one of his first acts as president, Mr. Trump pulled the United States out of the Trans-Pacific Partnership (TPP) trade agreement. Regardless of the debate over the economic aspects of TPP, the strategic benefits of TPP for the United States, Japan, and others was clear, which is why Prime Minister Abe spent tremendous political capital negotiating TPP.
Mr. Trump then sent shock waves through allied capitals with his undiplomatic treatment of Australian Prime Minister Malcolm Turnbull in a reportedly angry conversation that Mr. Trump ended abruptly.
Mr. Trump and his team have also demonstrated an erratic and deeply troubling approach to China, including by questioning the One China policy and by stating that the United States could prevent China from accessing the outposts it occupies in the South China Sea. While U.S. policy towards China needs to be tough on certain issues — and no country would agree with that analysis more than Prime Minister Abe’s Japan — this sort of irresponsible and off the cuff policymaking could pose serious problems not only for the United States, but also for the U.S.-Japan alliance and Asia more broadly.
Mr. Trump may think America doesn’t need allies, but he’s wrong.
If Mr. Trump intends to get tough with China on economic issues — as he promised throughout the campaign — he’s going to need Japan and America’s other allies and partners in Asia to work together to encourage China to change its trade and investment policies.
If Mr. Trump wants to pressure North Korea to freeze and get rid of its nuclear and missile programs, he’s going to need Japan.
If Mr. Trump wants to bolster economic growth at home and create jobs for Americans, he’s going to need to continue to bolster America’s economic relationship with Japan, its fourth largest trading partner.
Mr. Trump should be very careful not to take the U.S.-Japan alliance for granted. There are voices in Japan that want to see a less robust alliance. And there are voices in Asia — mostly in China — that want to weaken the alliance. Their success would be a devastating blow for America’s security and economic interests, and would remove the linchpin of peace and prosperity in East Asia.
Michael H. Fuchs (@mikehfuchs) is a Senior Fellow at the Center for American Progress. Brian Harding (@iambrianharding) is Director for East and Southeast Asia at the Center for American Progress.
