How Might Russia Use Nuclear Weapons in the Current War?

I wrote this piece for Quora in early May, and have decided to move it here. Although some of what it says is out of date, other aspects of what are discussed remain current. The question of nuclear escalation deserves our absolute sober attention. Here’s my take as of a couple of months ago:

I’ve seen speculation and claims that assessing this question was one of Valeriy Gerasimov’s tasks on his recent short lived appearance in-theatre in Ukraine.

Wishing Mr. Gerasimov a long and eventful recovery as he takes an involuntary holiday from his burdensome responsibilities in hospital.

It’s a hard question to think about, and an even harder one to answer. There are a few possible scenarios here.

If any nuclear weapons are used in a planned fashion (and this is a big if, it’s still unlikely), the exact way that they’ll be used depends on a couple of things, in particular on the objectives that the Kremlin might hope to achieve with them. I’ll outline a couple of possible scenarios and leave it at that. For now, that’s the best I can do.

Scenario 1: Battlefield use for a local tactical advantage.

The Russian military has performed very poorly in this war. There has already been a major front collapse in the North, and the…