Math models of collective action explain why Ukraine is still fighting and why Iran might be headed for a revolution
It’s more than critical mass
At the start of the Ukraine war, there was a genuine skepticism that Ukrainians would resist the Russian invasion. And if you subscribe to the economic theory of rational actors, acting in self-interest, then you might wonder why people chose to fight back instead of giving up. As Pippa Norris and Kneniya Kizilova of the LSE remarked,
This massive civilian uprising seems unprecedented in the speed of rapid mobilisation after Putin’s fateful decision to invade. Reports suggest that after just a few days, the armed resistance, by the Ukrainian professional military and volunteer civilians, had initially strengthened national morale, slowed the expected pace of the Russian invasion, and inflicted some serious damage.
Early survey evidence showed that the will to fight back is rooted in both nationalism, particularly along ethno-linguistic lines, meaning people who speak Ukrainian and identify with Ukrainian culture, and a desire to protect certain liberal ideals. As President Zelensky told the European Parliament,
Our people are very much motivated, very much so, we are fighting for our rights, for our freedoms, for our life.
