Math models show why Russian generals keep getting killed

Tim Andersen, Ph.D.
11 min readMar 30, 2022
Wikimedia commons. Creative Commons CC0 1.0 Universal Public Domain Dedication

At the time of writing, at least seven Russian generals are reported to have been killed in the Ukraine war, including two three star, Lieutenant Generals Andrei Mordvichev and Yakov Rezantsev. The general (no pun intended) consensus by US watchers such as Retired General and former CIA director Petraeus is that snipers are targeting them. But why are they being exposed in the first place?

Petraeus (and his fellow retired four star General McCaffrey) suggests that the reason is because Russian command, control, and communications (C3) has broken down. Junior officers and non-commissioned officers (NCOs) are taught, in the Russian Army, not to take initiative but to wait for orders from above. Unlike the American Army, where NCOs are experienced, career enlisted personnel who take on leadership positions, the Russian Army has no similar roles for its enlisted personnel. Their NCOs are more like contractors who are looking to finish their contracts, preferably alive. Without orders, they are holding position, making themselves easy targets for ambushes.

This may be why the Russians are increasingly using a destructive air campaign in order to turn the tide of the war. Even here the Army and air forces are poorly coordinated so that, while bombing and missile barrages are incredibly damaging and kill innocent people, they…

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