These simple mathematical models tell us why Russia is running out of time
Retired Lt. Gen. Ben Hodges, the former commander of U.S. Army forces in Europe, recently stated that Russia was running out of time to win the war in Ukraine before it would be forced to make peace.
Russia’s decision to transition to a war of attrition, where they’re smashing cities, putting civilians on the road for fear of being murdered, …they need three things to do this [win], and they don’t have those three things. They don’t have the time, they don’t have the manpower and I don’t think they have the ammunition.
In fact, he suggested that it might happen within 10 days. Hodges went on to clarify that this was dependent on a continuous or even accelerated flow of equipment (supplies and weapons) into Ukraine from NATO nations to destroy long range artillery, rocket launcher, and cruise missile sites. This latter point is most important to what I want to talk about in this article.
His statement may seem confusing given that many nations carry out protracted wars over years, even decades. Vietnam and Afghanistan come to mind. His intuition however has mathematical backing, going back to the War to End All Wars.
World War I was an offensive war of attrition. In other words, two sets of combatants were duking it out against one another…
