How the Democrats Win the 2020 Congressional and Presidential Elections
here is much talk of a “blue wave” this November. That seems unlikely. Since 2010, the Democratic Party as a whole has been losing elections at every level. Here is the partisan scoresheet for various state and national offices (source wikipedia and The Hill)
2008 was a great year for Democratic candidates. Bush had pushed the ill-advised Iraq War, broken the anti-torture ethic the American military had maintained for over a century, and overseen the New Orleans Katrina disaster. John McCain, although sporting a more blameless record than George W., chose the ever-entertaining Sarah Palin as his running mate. Finally, the biggest economic collapse since 1929 occurred in the run-up to the election. In contrast to the chaos that characterized the Republican corner, the Democrats presented the country with Barack Obama, a candidate who was articulate, had spoken against the Iraq war, and was not associated with any Democratic failures. The iconic image of that campaign was a positive — if vague — promise of a better future:
By 2010, the public mood had changed and election returns imply that the country believed the Democrats had not delivered on their promise. By 2016, Democrats had been on the ropes for four consecutive House elections: 2010, 2012, 2014, and 2016. In the business world, such repeated failure would result in calls for new management. Paradoxically, the Democratic Party doubled down on their existing leadership and policies, beginning in the immediate aftermath of the election and continuing to the present day.
It’s possible the Democrats might win some hearts in 2018 with their “we’re still the same, but isn’t Trump terrible” rhetoric. But when people are worried about their future, they will not feel allegiance to a party unless their fears are taken seriously. And they are worried. And they should be. Only 39% of American households can weather an unexpected $1000 expense using their savings. Even without the looming threat of blue collar job losses that automation represents, being that close to the edge economically when another crash could come at any time is unsupportable.
If the Democrats can run on a positive platform that provides real security to people, they can win big. Roosevelt knew this in 1932 (source : Four Freedoms Park)
Here’s the change in congressional composition after the Great Depression started in 1929 (source Wikipedia):
The electoral sweep in the 1930s gave serious power to a party that wanted to do big things to solve big problems — such as the implementation of Social Security, deployed in 1935. The current platform of the Democratic Party doesn’t suggest that they’re interested in taking on the big problems. But even if they were, the Democrats would face an uphill battle to convince the electorate of their good intentions.
With the Democratic leadership resistant to change, developing a platform that will generate enough voter enthusiasm to put the Democrats back in office will require a grassroots strategy. This is why 2018 will not be a “blue wave”: grassroots movements take time to mobilize. What is required is the success in Democratic primaries of candidates who take the desperation of the lower middle class seriously. A lot of them. Some of those candidates are out there now, running for congress in November: Tulsi Gabbard running for reelection, Kaniela Ing running for the first time, and Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez who displaced a party-backed incumbent, to name a few. Now we just need to find more for 2020.