2016 Super Tuesday Analysis
Here is my post Super Tuesday analysis. If Carson goes, I think most of his votes go to Cruz while some might go to Rubio. Many in the GOP are pressuring him to run for Senate in Florida and I think this is a good idea. I think Kasich is hoping for an Ohio win (and then what exactly?) but he is done for. I think all of his votes go to Rubio. Between, Cruz and Rubio, it may be time to start looking at the math of the situation. So let’s do that: Trump has 285 delegates, Cruz has 161 delegates and Rubio has 87 delegates. You need 1,237 delegates to win. In the popular vote, Trump has 3,343,474, Cruz has 2,749,300 and Rubio has 2,124,350. Rubio has won Minnesota. Cruz has won Texas, Oklahoma, Iowa and Alaska. Trump has won New Hampshire, Vermont, Massachusetts, Virginia, Tennessee, Alabama, Georgia, South Carolina and Arkansas. I think there are 41 more contests to go including the territories and DC, Wyoming and Colorado award the delegates at the convention. According to Realclear Politics Rubio is losing to Trump in Florida by 20% and Cruz is leading in California while Trump is barely edging out Kasich in Ohio. I think Rubio is hoping for a contested convention but conservatives should not take that chance. It seems like the establishment might more easily rally around Rubio but that might look like it is starting to change. Lindsey Graham said of Cruz “If you killed Ted Cruz on the floor of the Senate, and the trial was in the Senate, nobody would convict you.” He also said this about having to choose between Trump and Cruz “It’s like being shot or poisoned.” He does not like Ted Cruz. However today he said this “But we may be in a position where we have to rally around Ted Cruz as the only way to stop Donald Trump.” So the establishment guy who despises Ted Cruz is ready to rally around him. When it comes to Ted and Marco, Ted has the lead in delegates, popular vote and states. Marco is not even close in his home state. Maybe Marco should step down to be his VP?