Hillary Clinton will Win, be Concerned
By all accounts, Hillary Clinton will be the next President. Go ahead, celebrate/mourn, I’ll wait. Okay, got it out of your system? Good. Here comes the cold water. While not horrible, many of her policies and political practices could make America much worse off.
Let’s start with foreign policy, specifically Syria. Hillary has suggested establishing a no fly-zone in Syria on multiple occasions. This sounds really nice, a no-fly zone is the Non-Aggression Principal writ large. Until you have to enforce it. And enforcing it means removing aircraft from that zone by threat of force or outright force. In the case of Syria, this puts us in a strategic game of chicken with Russia. And I think we’ll blink first. In case you haven’t been following the news, Russia has already warned their citizens to be prepared for nuclear war. This could be posturing, but the potential cost of calling Russia’s bluff is Mutually Assured Destruction. Given the increasingly aggressive and unpredictable behavior of Russia, would any western politician make that bet? I think not. The end result is an unenforceable military position that endangers innocent Syrians and Coalition military personnel. Even if you don’t care about Syria, don’t even know where it is, you should care about our relationship with Russia. The US has screwed up the Russia relationship since President Bush II. We’re going on 16 years of getting it wrong, with disastrous consequences for Eastern Europe and Southwest Asia. With President Clinton, it looks like we’re headed for four more years, but the stakes of playing the game wrong have grown steeper.
When it comes to foreign policy, Hillary has ideas which are definitely more nuanced than those of her opponent. These ideas are influenced by ~30 years of experience. But as Einstein once said, “We cannot solve our problems with the same level of thinking that created them.” Hillary isn’t bringing any new ideas to the table.