The fall of Dele Alli
The Spurs midfielder was once regarded as the hottest property in world football, being ranked as the #2 most valuable player in the world in 2017 in a study by CIES Football Observatory — How has his stock fallen so low?
Everyone remembers the Dele Alli of old; young, cheeky, arrogant, playing with a swagger that few other players could match. The astonishing rise of Dele Alli is almost unmatched, from playing with Milton Keynes in League One in 2015 to being the world's second most valuable footballer in 2017.
More astonishing than Dele’s rise is his apparent demise, what’s happened to Dele?
Dele has gone from being the first name on the teamsheet to only playing 67 Premier League minutes this season and regularly being left out of the matchday squad. Let’s see why.
Goals have dried up
Dele Alli adapted from the third-tier to the first-tier of English football seamlessly, scoring 10 goals in his maiden Premier League season in 15–16. Dele’s 10 goals came from an impressive xG of 8.32. Considering Dele was regularly playing as an 8 in his first season, the number of chances that came his way is a testament to his movement. His finishing? Even better.
This mesmeric rise continued as Tottenham came 2nd in the Premier League in the 2016–2017 season as Chelsea were crowned champions, Dele scored an unbelievable 18 Premier League goals and 22 goals in all competitions.
Perhaps more surprisingly, is Dele only found the net four times in his first 21 games of the season before he was reminded to change his playing style,
“At the start of the season I struggled a bit, perhaps because I didn’t expect players to be so used to me, so I had to change up my game.
“I started playing a bit higher up the pitch and scoring a few more goals.”
— Dele Alli on having to adapt his game
Did Dele predict his own decline? In both has maiden and sophomore Premier League seasons Dele Alli featured in the PFA Team of the Year, as well as being named PFA Young Player of the Year on both occasions. The sky was the limit.
Since then, Dele’s numbers have taken a considerable drop. Over the next two seasons, he scored only 14 goals, with a mere 5 goals during the 2018–19 season.
In fairness to Dele, he did gradually improve his numbers last season, scoring 8 Premier League goals at a rate of one goal every 231 minutes. But this isn’t good enough for a player of Dele’s caliber, and Tottenham fans worldwide are wondering, where’s the real “Dele Alli?”
Where’s the creativity?
For his first three seasons, Dele Alli was a creative threat just as much as he was a goal threat, and that’s what made him such a special talent.
Dele got 9 Premier League assists in his debut campaign, with the Dele/Kane duo being valued on the same level as the Son/Kane partnership of today.
After establishing his creative talents during the 2015–16 campaign he built on this in 2016–17 with seven assists, and his creativity peaked during the 2017–18 campaign, where he tallied 10 assists.
His creativity since then, has been merely non-existent. Alli managed only 3 assists during the 2018-2019 season, improving slightly to 4 assists for last season.
The goals have dried up, the assists have dried up, is Dele dried up?
One thing is clear — Dele is no longer getting into the positions he used to, something I’ll explore further.
The rise of Heung-Min-Son
Although Dele Alli and Son Heung min are close friends, the pair have gone in opposite directions during their Tottenham careers. Dele was Tottenham’s diamond, and figurehead to lead the club for years to come alongside Harry Kane. While son had a relatively poor first season at Tottenham and actually asked to leave the club to return to the Bundesliga with Wolfsburg.
Son had his breakout season for Spurs during 2016–17 where Dele Alli was also on top of his game but one key thing to note here is the positions of the two players.
Son-Heung-Min was played on the left or right-wing, while Dele Alli was played in a second-striker role alongside Harry Kane, while Christian Eriksen would start from the left side and move to the centre of the pitch.
After the 2016–17 season Son then became Kane’s partner in the centre of the pitch which left Spurs trying to accommodate Dele. Dele played matches starting from the left-hand side, which he wasn’t quick enough for, he started behind the pair which hasn't worked and Spurs’ also tried playing him deeper — which he lacks the defensive prowess form
My point is as Son became a bigger and more important player for Tottenham, he’s not only played the Dele Alli role, but he bettered it. In terms of numbers, 16–17 Alli was more productive, but for the balance of the team, Son has proved a much better option. Leaving Spurs playing Alli in numerous roles that don’t suit him and have inevitably had a harsh effect on his contribution to the game.
His productivity has fallen on all counts, and his expected contributions have taken an even harsher fall. From 14.71 xG in 2016–2017, falling to a mere 5.95xg in 2018–19.
His xA has taken an equally sharp decline, peaking at 8.84 in 2017–2018 and falling to a mere 3.29 & 3.48 for the 2018–2019 and 2019–20 seasons respectively. This is simply not good enough for a player who is at an age where consistency should be growing into his game, not out of it.
Lack of confidence?
Importantly, Dele is taking fewer shots per game. While it may not seem a major drop, the decline is more revealing when you delve deeper, Dele is having fewer touches n the opposition penalty area. He peaked at this department in 17–18 when he managed 163 touches in the opposition penalty area, compared with just 83 last season.
While the positional change and balance to the team has definitely played an impact, the sharp decline in attempts on goal shows a player that is short in confidence
Jose Mourinho famously told Dele when he arrived at Tottenham “are you Dele or Dele’s brother?” Mourinho was emphasising that while he looked like Dele Alli, he wasn’t playing like Dele Alli and that’s clear for us all to see.
Mourinho put Dele back in his attacking role stating, “Dele is not a midfield player”, Alli rewarded Mourinho’s faith with four goals and three assists in his first five appearances under Mourinho.
However, since then Alli’s form has declined once more and he finds himself outside the Tottenham first team for the first time in his career.
What’s next?
The truth for Dele is that only he can put the work in to put himself back in the starting XI, it’s possible as proven by Tanguy Ndombele. It all depends on how hard Dele wants to work and how much he wants to play for Tottenham.
We’re talking about a player that’s short of confidence and has been declining for three years now, but more importantly — we’re talking about a player that causes an imbalance in the team.
During the 16–17 season, Tottenham had Mousa Dembele and Victor Wanyama in their prime’s to cover for the attacking midfielders, while Tottenham also boasted the best defence in the league that year.
Now, it’s a different Tottenham side. The defence is leaky and the midfield is not as resolute as it was with Dembele and Wanyama. Lo Celso and Ndombele are primarily attacking players, while Hojberg is the glue that holds the team together. Is Dele better than any of that trio? Currently, no. Furthermore, there’s no way that Dele starts over Kane, Son or Bale.
The situation sparks similarities to Mesut Ozil at Arsenal, a formerly important player who now sits on the sidelines. The truth is football teams’ could afford luxury players like Alli and Ozil previously, but with the modern Gergenpress era of football, the luxury player and the iconic ‘no 10’ is dying.
Alli must either adapt his game (which Spurs have tried), or it’s time for him to move on for both the good of Spurs and his career.
I truly believe that Dele Alli will reinvent himself and return to the Dele we love, but deep down, I know it can’t be at Tottenham.
Prove me wrong Dele, we want you back.
