South Carolina Is Changing This Nomination

South Carolina is changing this nomination in no way it is supposed to.

South Carolina isn’t supposed to change this nomination, it is a state that Joe Biden is supposed to win, a state that everyone expected him to win and win big before Iowa and New Hampshire took place. It is a state that Joe Biden is supposed and expected to win but not a shocking win with the tremendous reaction of what we are seeing now. No one expected South Carolina to change this nomination if it was in January.

So how did it change?

After barely making 15% in Iowa and not even making the threshold in New Hampshire, every Democrat had their eyes on Joe Biden’s Nevada and South Carolina performances, two states that Joe Biden are expected to win according to the polls. But after Joe Biden was placed in a distant second in Nevada with only 9 delegates, the media and pundits started attacking his campaign. This exaggerated victorious reaction towards Joe Biden after South Carolina is not due to primary itself, but when everyone thought that he is going to lose the nomination, he comes back with a win. Without the necessary loss he gained before, he cannot receive the applause he received now.

But Biden isn’t the most important person who changed this.

The first most important factor to alter this nomination is Pete Buttigieg.

Just yesterday, Pete Buttigieg, one of the biggest names in this election, announced his dropout of this historic campaign, leaving his position as a top-tier third place candidate in this race. With a fall in the South Carolina primary, he realized that “the truth is the path has narrowed to a close, for his (our) candidacy, if not for his (our) cause.” Buttigieg’s campaign had long depended on the early moderate states and his failure of addressing himself as a candidate who can win minority and Southern states’ votes led to him drop out. Without much investment in the Super Tuesday, he has minimal chance left to win the nomination.

Pete Buttigieg’s dropout is a crucial factor in the Super Tuesday to come that might hugely influence who the nominee is. The reason behind why Bernie Sanders was able to dominate most of the races before South Carolina is because of his fervent support amongst progressive voters. On the moderate wing of the Democratic party, however, there is a significant lack of a unifying force or a favorite candidate. In New Hampshire, Buttigieg and Klobuchar split the moderate vote, in Iowa, all moderate candidates had a double-digit turnout and in Nevada, all moderates suffered a loss from Bernie Sanders’ support. With the dropout of Buttigieg, many have predicted that Joe Biden will gain a momentum amongst moderate, Midwest white voters.

But it might turn out quite differently.

Another person with the similar record with Pete Buttigieg is Sen. Amy Klobuchar who also presented herself as a strong moderate candidate who, unlike Joe Biden who was the senator of Delaware, won a Midwest swing state and will defeat Donald Trump in those key swing states in the general election. Amy Klobuchar’s rise in New Hampshire is also similar to that of Pete Buttigieg due to their strong debate performances that convinced voters. Amy Klobuchar’s voters also have a similar ethnic background with Pete Buttigieg, white, indecisive voters who are 45 or older and generally make their decisions in the last few days before the primaries. Amy Klobuchar’s attraction to female moderate supporters will also further the advantage she has over Biden amongst former Buttigieg supporters. So instead of Joe Biden, Amy Klobuchar is the more possible candidate that Buttigieg supporters might go to after the dropout. But it is undeniable that Buttigieg’s dropout will boost Joe Biden’s campaign and accelerate the overall unification of the moderate wing.

The second important factor is Mike Bloomberg.

Mike Bloomberg’s performance in the South Carolina debate was regarded as a huge improvement from the gaffes in the last democratic debate, although he was unable to explicitly address his previous controversial policies as the mayor or the sexual assault scandals in his company, he attacked various other candidates and made the case that he was the only electable, realistic, competent, anti-Bernie candidate against Donald Trump.

But he made a strategic mistake.

Mike Bloomberg should have been on the ballot of South Carolina, especially when his support come from moderate voters who gathered in the South. Now with the rise of Joe Biden in the Southern states amongst black voters, Bloomberg has failed one of his two basic premises for running this campaign, that he is the best moderate candidate, even better and more electable than Joe Biden. His appearance on the South Carolina debate stage has also confused voters in South Carolina. With Joe Biden’s leading victory in South Carolina, Bloomberg will soon face an obstacle in Super Tuesday from winning moderate states. He has to re-address voters in South, moderate states where his campaign focuses on in just two days.

Expecting for Bloomberg to drop out soon is almost impossible given with his wealth and second-digit national polling numbers, but where would a portion of Bloomberg supporters go in the Super Tuesday? It wouldn’t go anywhere to the progressive wings of Warren and Sanders who have constantly attacked him. It wouldn’t go to Klobuchar either given her previous attacks on Bloomberg’s discriminatory records towards women. So again, Bloomberg’s support would be diverted to the winner of the South Carolina, Joe Biden.

This might minimize Bernie’s expected wide margin of victory in Super Tuesday by not only securing a win for Joe Biden in delegate powerhouses of North Carolina and Virginia, but also increasing the votes and delegates for him in Texas and California.

With more and more primaries approaching, we might expect many candidates to drop out soon as the field narrows. And as model shows from FiveThirtyEight, we might not have a direct primary winner this year. (67%)

So to South Carolina, I say: Thank you for the uncertainty.