Between segwit activation and NY fork will be not much time. To less to deploy Lightning Network which show us benefits of it. But new clients from now on, will perfom transaction optimalisation and will make second witness chain. Some of web explorers will not understand such second chain, but no problem they will, and in total it couse doubled or tripled transactions in blocks, it means no backlog, and no dramatic fees.
After Segwit activation we will back to standard scenario from epic drama:
Old Core clients and all UASF will come back to Core.
Bitmain cannot come back to BU, beacuse due to Segwit already activation, he will have no bullets to strike on Core. That’s why he will try to use comming segwit fork and try to scare everybody. But due to minority of segwit2x miners and clients in last hours he will jump to majority side. The same thing will do every ASIC miner. Some home-maniacs (like me) will try to run Segwit2x anyway and try to mine some S2X bitcoins with my GPU (I assume low hashrate :) ). I will try to sell it (if it will be possible) for couple of beers…