Price, perception and fundamentals

Or how to cherry-pick the best companies

The war of these Japanese candles is sometimes more intriguing than Star Wars. And now with everyone buying crypto, it’s a 24/7 play. Exhausting.

The Theory of Reflexivity says that fundamentals are affected by perception, which is affected by price. And price itself closes the cycle, as it’s set based on fundamentals. So what does it all mean? Well, sometimes it’s best to zoom out and see the pulse of the market before you invest in a company. You can easily do that with Google Trends and spot… well, trends. So let’s give this a try!

Amazon, the waves

It’s clear that Amazon is on an upwards trend. Those spikes? December. If you buy some shares, their value will probably grow.

AirBnB, the hills

On the contrary, for AirBnB the spikes are in the months of July /summer / vacation. It too is soaring, so if it ever goes public, it’s wise to invest.

Apple, the pulse

Apple is also taking advantage of a self-imposed cycle, which is the beginning of each calendar school. So the spikes are in September, when they launch new products. Their growth is not phenomenal though, but it’s a better store of value than.. Bitcoin.

Electric vehicles are on the rise. Might be wise to look for lithium investments and the entire ecosystem around that.

Payment is also on a steady rising trend. I expect this to last for many years to come. Especially with the new technologies enabled by blockchain.

Streaming has become mainstream, more so with the adoption of mobile. This is a safe bet, especially if you enjoy consuming media.

And the future of work is definitely remote. ;-)

The losers

We can see what we felt all along, the demise of social media. I wouldn’t touch these shares with a ten foot pole. I do love Twitter though.

Turns out Instagram shouldn’t have sold to Facebook. For some reason taking mobile photos and sharing them online is still the core product value.

Ride hailing, the hype has passed. It’s time for consolidation and autonomy.

There are some clear winners in the eye of Mr. Market. By observing these trends you can determine how a company could grow and take action. Or take no action in regards to some of these guys.

I always enjoy to see how the end users feel about a product and it’s adoption on a global scale. Do you have any non-conventional ways to form an opinion about the companies you invest in? I’d love to read about it.