Liberals Across the Political Spectrum Should Unite for a People’s Vote
The 2016 EU Referendum was divisive for the country as a whole, but for liberals in particular. While some favoured the remain option and the benefits of free movement, an integrated market and enhanced political capital on the global stage, others opted for leave, and the promise of an independent trade policy and the opportunity to escape damaging policies such as the CAP.
Over the past two years the debate between these two liberal factions has been fierce, but there is now opportunity for unification. Theresa May’s Brexit deal fails to deliver the benefits of either remain or leave, prioritising an illiberal desire to cut immigration above all else. Liberals across the political spectrum should therefore endeavour to find a shared position from which to oppose the Prime Minister’s deal and instead promote an alternative way forward.
It cannot be no deal. For a whole host of reasons, this is an irresponsible choice. By most predictions, no deal will be the most damaging outcome for the UK economy; to avoid the worst of this damage would require a level of central planning that would make all liberals uneasy. To pretend that no deal should be the default choice of free-traders is a fallacy, as reverting to trading with the European Union on WTO terms would, far from reducing barriers to trade, only lead to an increase in tariffs previously unseen in the modern world. In truth, the economic consequences of no deal will only play straight into the hands of Jeremy Corbyn, creating the conditions in which his preferred version of ‘disaster socialism’ could thrive.
EFTA on paper appears a far more favourable option, maintaining access to the EU single market while at the same time allowing for an independent trade policy and opt-outs on the CAP and other inefficient and often illiberal EU policies. However, without the addition of a customs union, this option does not answer the Northern Ireland border question and would therefore be subject to the same ‘backstop’ controversies that plague Theresa May’s deal. In terms of trade policy, the so called ‘Norway+’ option, maintaining membership of the EU single market and customs union, would leave the UK in the worst of both worlds, with no independent trade policy of its own, and no say in how EU trade deals are negotiated.
The only option that therefore remains is for liberals to unite in favour of a public vote on the final deal, including the option to remain in the EU. It is becoming increasingly clear that the benefits of leaving the EU will not in any meaningful way be recognised, and as such liberals should seek to salvage the tangible benefits of EU membership while it’s still possible.
There is nothing to fear from endorsing this option. The idea that a democratic vote is somehow undemocratic is a contradiction in terms, while the risk of a populist-right backlash appears small. Despite the likes of Tommy Robinson already preaching the narrative of betrayal, support for his message does not appear to have spread beyond his most loyal followers; while over 100,000 have marched through the streets of London in support of a People’s Vote, only a tiny fraction of that number joined Robinson in his pro-Brexit protest. Meanwhile, UKIP continue to languish in the polls, seemingly incapable of benefiting from the current chaos in the Conservative Party.
A united movement of liberals could not only seek to ensure that the benefits of EU membership are maintained but moving forward could also seek EU reform; pushing back against the Union’s more centralising instincts and illiberal policy measures, and instead demanding focus on reducing remaining barriers to trade both within the Union and with third countries. With Angela Merkel leaving the stage and Emmanuel Macron embroiled in problems at home, the EU is on the lookout for new leadership; working together, liberals both in the UK and across the continent could provide it.
