I’m fucking hopeful.
Chris Brosnahan

I’m feeling more hopeful today after the panic of yesterday. You are right that Brits will mostly come together. Already many on both sides seem to realise the enormity of the result and that they were carried away by the rhetoric. There will be big changes and pain but there is a way through.

I don’t think Boris expected to win. He was making simple and unrealistic claims for attention and credibility with the Tory eurosceptics. He expected a remain win and would wait until Cameron resigned and then become leader with support across the Tory party. But now he has to step up to leadership and negotiate a compromise.

I expect we will end up with something like the Norway model, accepting free movement for free access to markets.

It won’t be as good as the deal we had but would be sold as safe from further political integration. Access to the markets would prevent the worst damage to the economy.

Immigration will fall as the UK is a less desirable destination but with free movement, failure to deliver the promised £350m a week for the NHS, inevitable recession and the loss of Scotland, Boris’ time as PM will be limited and his popularity will crash.