Hey Apple, what’s it gonna be?
by Andy Gstoll, Advisor & Evangelist at Wikitude
It is no secret that when Apple makes a move this year it will have a profound impact on how we consume AR in the coming years. But before jumping ahead of myself with what to expect, let me summarise briefly where we stand right now. For almost a decade AR has has had many glorious moments on mobile devices, although some may argue that it has not had its real break through and the reason for this may be that the required hardware to really make it fly has not been available — this is likely to change this year. And this is probably why Tim Cook continues to talk about AR in pretty much every interview he has recently given. There have been many articles written on the IF Apple will move into AR and perhaps also just as many on WHEN this might happen. Instead I would like to focus on the HOW Apple will conquer AR and particularly what hardware it will choose to make its first move. There are basically three possible paths Apple can go down on.
1. Make AR available for all iPhone users, old and new
Apple reached the 1 billion iPhones sold mark last year and in order to enable as many iPhone users as possible with AR, Apple could introduce an AR software development kit (SDK) for iOS developers providing them with (free?) tools to build AR apps. The resources and know-how gained from Apple’s acquisition of Metaio in 2015 would support this theory as Metaio focussed very much on standard smartphones already out there. When it comes to computer vision technology and algorithms on smartphones, it is important to understand that approximately 99% of the devices on the market are equipped with a single “world facing” camera only, this is also referred to as the “mono-cam” approach. Beside Metaio, there are multiple AR technology providers including Wikitude and PTC Vuforia, who are providing AR SDKs for these mono-cam devices available by the billions. Thousands if not hundreds of thousands of AR apps have already been built based on these tools. The below video is an example of a markerless instant 3D tracking project for regular mono-cam devices:
The challenge these software companies are facing is that it is extremely difficult to measure the depth of rooms, spaces and objects with standard mono-cam smartphones. Depth is an important metric to calculate and render augmented content properly in a three dimensional space, for example to place a virtual chair on the physical floor and make it stay there — or should I say “stick” to the floor — as the user moves around it in the room. Although it is possible to calculate depth based on sophisticated triangulation methods on mono-cam devices, it can be achieved much easier and perhaps more robustly by adding a depth sensor to a device or by adding a second camera. But again, 99% of the smartphones out there are not equipped with these. The question that remains is whether or not Apple wants to enable its entire iPhone user base out there immediately or whether it wants to make this a premium feature available only to buyers of a brand new iPhone 8. Looking at Apple’s past behaviour, the fact that we have seen the company introduce new features such as Siri only on brand new devices might be a strong indicator that Apple will do the same for AR.
2. Create a “Google Tango like” device
Contrary to the above described standard mono-cam smartphones, Google Tango devices are anythingbut standard as they are equipped with additional depth sensors and cameras to enable AR more easily and robustly. The fact that Apple introduced the iPhone 7 Plus equipped with an additional camera (stereo-cam) could be an indication for AR being on Apple’s roadmap, perhaps via an OS update on the iPhone 7 Plus in addition to the new generation to be introduced later this year, likely to be better equipped with additional sensors for superb AR experiences. The main reason why a “Google Tango like” iPhone is a very likely scenario is that Apple acquired a company called Primesense already in 2013. The Israeli company was specialized in 3D sensor technology, very similar to what we have seen in Tango for years. Another reason why this scenario is likely is that it would follow the same product launch strategy Apple has always taken. Observe more daring early movers on new product ideas and technologies and learn from their mistakes before actually launching its own product. In this case, Lenovo’s Phab 2 Pro and Asus’ ZenFone AR can be described as these early product moves as they are first generation devices focussed on AR and powered by Google’s Tango technology.
Johnny Lee, Google’s lead for Tango, has been presenting numerous AR showcase applications built by early Tango adopters on the content side including, for example, Lowe’s interior design app or BMW’s i Visualizer. Apple has been watching, and will continue to observe the success of these devices and their AR apps closely — we can be very certain of this. The timing for Apple to make its move later this year would fit into its proven tactic of being the second mover and “then do it right”. Should Apple move down this path, I predict it will develop at least one AR app on its own, addressing a killer use case, probably with a social aspect, to strengthen its existing Apple ecosystem.
3. Surprise the world with an AR device other than an iPhone
In addition to the above rather conservative options, Apple may surprise us all by introducing a completely new product category. This could be a pair of AR smart glasses, perhaps along the lines of ODG’s R9 or maybe the leaner and more consumer focussed R8. It could even be an entirely new product invention that we have not seen anywhere else before. Considering Apple’s patent, which was granted only in January and previously filed by Metaio before it wasacquired, you may derive that a device worn around the neck could provide some kind of AR support in connection with your iPhone. Robert Scoble, technology opinion-maker and evangelist of everything AR, MR and VR has boldly concluded that Apple has a partnership with Zeiss, the German optics company, to build an AR product. What speaks in favor of this third option is that Tim Cook, CEO of Apple, is often perceived as being under pressure to come up with a completely new product category, the way that his predecessor Steve Jobs has done so many times before, which was key to becoming the most valuable brand in the world. The argument against it is that there has not been an AR smart glass product so far showing any significant success with consumers. Due to its non-fashionable appearance, short battery life, inferior ergonomics, small field of view (FOV) and many other unsolved problems, the majority of smart glass product attempts have been aimed only at enterprise customers so far, not because manufacturers want to, but because they have to, given the current state of the technology. In theory, this could be Apple’s opportunity to strike into the consumer space, but considering Apple’s usual tactic of being the second mover and “then do it right” as described above, this scenario is less likely.
The prediction
We know from the past that Apple has the potential to surprise. And although we saw more of this during the Steve Jobs era, it is totally possible that Tim Cook will dare to make a bolder move than ever before. After all, the 10th anniversary of the iPhone is coming up soon. If I had to quantify the probabilities of the above options, I would allocate only a small percentage to Apple supporting past generations of iPhones with AR as it will want to push sales of new devices. In fact, it may be much more likely that Apple will launch one “Google Tango like” model, perhaps called the “iPhone AR” or similar, alongside a more standard new iteration of the iPhone series as we know it. Although I am convinced that Apple’s reportedly more than 1,000 AR engineers in Israel are working on products that will not go anywhere near an Apple Store for the next few years, I don’t expect to be buying an Apple iGlass for Christmas this year. I do, however, expect to look into my new iPhone’s camera for authentication and to place 3D models of monsters and furniture in my living room this holiday season.
Credits for title image: from Matthew Hallberg’s video tutorial
