The Opportunity of a Lifetime
Every phone and video conversation I’ve been having over the past month starts exactly the same way. We each describe our current situation, both personally with our families and kids, as well as our thoughts on business. We then exchange opinions and the latest COVID-19 updates we have, the rumors we have heard, when will it end, what will happen after, and how we hope to someday transition back to our ’normal’ lives. I’m currently having between six to seven calls a day, so these conversations really add up over the course of several weeks, and the more time that goes by, the more your thinking about the situation evolves.
What if things never go back to the way they used to be?
I think it’s fair and realistic to acknowledge that in some aspects of our lives, things will forever be different. Humans are usually quick to forget, and we try to ignore traumatic events and move on as if nothing happened, but this may be one of those moments in history that truly shapes our future as a society. We will think about the world before and after COVID-19, and the social and economic impact will be felt for several years, if not longer. There is a lot of ground to cover here in terms of everything in our lives, across the entire planet, that can either change forever or go back to normal, but I want to try to focus on two specific areas I have been thinking a lot about more related to our business lives: innovation and productivity.
It’s important to clarify that my point of view here is biased, because I’m a lifelong entrepreneur, and I am focusing this piece on innovation and productivity around tech-enabled companies, entrepreneurs, venture capitalists, etc. This thinking of course is not applicable to every industry or person out there, but those categories cover most of the people I’m generally having these conversations with, and part of the challenge with the current situation is that is forcing non-entrepreneurs to start thinking like entrepreneurs, and non-startups to innovate like startups.
I have spent my entire entrepreneurial career thinking about disruption and evolution, more specifically, how technology is helping (and often forcing) industries to change, which I think is why I am giving the current situation a different kind of appreciation. I was very involved in the early days of the “digital music revolution”, even before record industry veterans understood that their business was forever going to change. A lot of the senior music industry executives and companies I met back then who understood what was coming continue to be very successful to-date, while others who weren’t willing to evolve were pushed out of the industry altogether. I saw the same type of evolution in the gaming industry–going from offline games to online, from single player to multiplayer and social, mobile games, and so on.
The biggest difference between those experiences I’ve lived and the current situation is that those industries took years to accept the changes, adapt and evolve. Today, we all need to adapt and evolve in a matter of weeks. Entire industries have been shut down, and forced to rethink their entire existence practically overnight. I have friends that were on top of the world a couple of months ago, and now they’re having to let go of all their employees and figure out how to survive. Most importantly, they don’t fully know if this disruption is a temporary one or a permanent one. Their business as they know it may be gone forever.
This is of course brutal and terrifying for a lot of people, but at the same time liberating for many entrepreneurs. Remember everyone’s social feeds just four months ago? It was an endless collection of reflections to end the decade, and resolutions to start a new decade. A lot happened in the past 10 years, getting out of a huge financial crisis, but without something as impactful across the globe as COVID-19. So many of us were seeing 2020 as a big transitional year, and as an opportunity to reevaluate our lives and get better at everything we do. I’m sure a lot of people had big plans and New Year’s resolutions. Maybe they did not plan to follow through with them, but it seems like we were now given no choice. COVID-19 is forcing a real reset.
To me, this pandemic puts in perspective how little most people know about what will happen in the future, and how unprepared we all are, no matter how much information, success or wealth we may have. We had many warnings over the years that something like this may happen, from multiple sources, but somehow nobody was prepared for it; not governments, not the largest corporations, not the smartest entrepreneurs. We have endless resources and technology at our fingertips, yet somehow we didn’t have enough masks, or ventilators, or even the ability to produce and distribute the necessary testing (we still don’t months later), or to predict how or when we can get the situation under control. So once again I wonder, how is this not an opportunity for all of us to get better?
So many people laughed at Andrew Yang when he first proposed the “Freedom Dividend”, or UBI (universal basic income), as the foundation of his Presidential campaign, yet everyone in America now, Democrats and Republicans alike, generally agree it was the most necessary first step in keeping our country from collapsing during this pandemic. Yang knew from the beginning his political campaign was a very low probability uphill battle, but that didn’t stop him from running, from sharing his ideas, and from encouraging many of us to Think Harder (one of his most catchy slogans, MATH, stands for Make America Think Harder). This is no different than any entrepreneur with an idea, with conviction, and with guts to go after it no matter the odds. Yang of course did not secure the Democratic nomination, but he exceeded everyone’s expectations, he made a name for himself, and most importantly he has been validated now more than ever given the current environment. This will open many opportunities for him in the future (makes me wish Biden hadn’t committed already to picking a female VP, unless he plans to pick Michelle Obama, or my wife Lauren Kleinman).
The playing field is as leveled as it will ever be right now. We are all hitting the reset button on a global scale. Large corporations or wealthy individuals do not have an advantage over others to figure out what will be successful in the aftermath of COVID-19, because nobody truly knows what the world will look like. The largest financial institutions, governments, analysts, experts, all seem to have very different opinions about when things will go back to normal, and how different industries will be affected. In the midst of this confusion and uncertainty, we have the ability to be creative, to bootstrap new ideas, and to use our imagination in ways we could never do before. What will our society need? What can we do differently? How can we prepare better? How can we build a successful business, while also making the world better for everyone? What does the world look like in 2021, 2022, 2025 and beyond? What about education for our children? Healthcare? Manufacturing and supply chains? Entertainment and social interactions? Transportation and lodging? No matter where you look, there will be changes, there will be challenges, and there are already huge opportunities waiting for all of us.
One of my favorite current examples of under-pressure pivots in record time is OpenTable, which saw it’s business evaporate overnight as all restaurants around the world are closed for reservations. So what did they do? They pivoted their platform to grocery store reservations, and restaurant deliveries. They saw the opportunity and launched the new app in weeks, which is probably harder to do as a large company with 1500 employees worldwide than it would be for a new startup with a handful of engineers. I am sure that wasn’t in their original product roadmap for 2020, and perhaps the feature will be obsolete in the future if things go back to normal, but right now it may be the only way to keep the lights on, not just for OpenTable but for the thousands of restaurants and vendors they work with that are also facing the most uncertain times. These restaurants are also in the process of re-thinking their business, and while unfortunately most restaurants are suffering, some of them are reinventing themselves and innovating the entire concept of what a restaurant will be in the post-COVID-19 future.
All of this is of course is all easier said than done, but it all starts with the right mindset. All of us are having different realities during the quarantine, but most of us can still make choices when it comes to maximizing our free time and our mental energy. There are endless resources these days to learn and educate ourselves, to meet new people and network, and to find other liked-minded individuals that may share our ideas and be open to teaming up. We can decide whether we want to binge watch all of Netflix, or balance our time to let our innovation, inspiration, and productivity flow. Even choosing what to watch on TV or what to read can have a huge impact in how you can inspire yourself and learn something new.
There is no better time than the present for entrepreneurs to think about the future. The world is changing faster than ever, and many of the impactful moments we share at the end of this decade will have their genesis during this uncertain COVID-19 time. The most beautiful thing about being an entrepreneur is to know that the opportunities are endless for someone who is not afraid to go after it and work hard. Just look at the most obvious examples in Jeff Bezos, Elon Musk, Steve Jobs and Bill Gates, who are all incredible successes against the odds (you should also read The Third Door by my friend Alex Banayan if you want additional inspiration in that department).
As I end every single conversation and email these days, “stay safe, healthy, and productive”. I hope some of these thoughts resonate with you, and if you do have a revolutionary idea to help shape the future of our world, I would love to hear about it and help in any way I can.
