Has the Baloch Moment arrived?
Has the Baloch Moment arrived?
Who are Balochis & why is even Balochistan significant?
Baluchis were the people who have inhabited to the west of Indus river and have historically been part of Indus Valley civilization yet maintaining their distinct identity. While most of the Indus valley fell to Sankrit based languages Baluch people did maintain the Dravidian base of their language. Some words still match with words in Tamil. This points towards the strong will of Baluch people who have managed to not allow themselves to be digested over 7000 years. The landmass on which they sit extends into 3 nations Iran, Pakistan & Afghanistan. Also, it falls exactly on the route China is developing to get access to Arabian sea and avoid the Mallacca choke point in case the situation comes. It is also important to note that Balochistan sits on mineral wealth roughly estimated at $1 Trillion.
The case for Baloch Freedom?
In modern day context to be happily living as part of a nation, the nation must offer atleast 3 things to an ethnic group. First the ethnic identity must get recognized as a contributor to the narrative of the nation. Second, the State should provide equal rights & equal opportunities vis a vis other ethnicities. Third, the ethnic group should not be exploited of their resources for the sake of other ethnic group while the provider suffers.
I think Baloch can answer better on how they are treated on all three fronts. In my view on identity front Baloch have their own historical narrative. Even during the British era, Baluchistan was under the rule of a Chief Commissioner and it did not have the same status as other provinces of British India. While sitting on $1 trillion mineral resources majority of Baloch population suffers in absolute poverty. As per BDNA report by Pakistan Government, 38.8% of the national population of Pakistan is poor based on the multidimensional poverty index (MPI). Whereas for Balochistan its much higher, 71% of its population is poor based on same index. So definitely there is a failure somewhere on equality in opportunity and exploitation of resources.
Low level insurgency and armed rebellion has been ongoing in Balochistan from the day it was annexed by Pakistan. So I can say for sure that on some fronts Pakistan state is failing to address the Balochs concerns and aspirations.
Why have Baloch been unsuccessful in getting freedom so far?
Instrument of Accession was signed on 27th March 1948 against the wishes of Baloch State legislature. That’s why it comes as no surprise that the first wave of insurgency started in 1948 itself. But despite multiple waves of Insurgencies 1948, 1958–59, 1962–63 and 1973–1977 and the current ongoing insurgency which started in 2003, Baloch people have not been able to gain independence or get sufficient political autonomy to address their grievances. Its not that the effort of Baloch people are not significant enough but the issue was, it made no geopolitical significance in the world so far, moreover keeping Balochistan with Pakistan was in favor of world order which was led by US post WW2.
Getting independence from an occupier is like Indian arranged marriage where first you need to find the right girl or the boy and then the Kundli has to match. Similarly for a country to get freedom,
1. First & foremost there has to be strong will of the people to keep the cause alive and
2. The geopolitical situation of the world and the region has to be in favour of you getting independence or
3. The economic situation of the occupier has to go so bad that the cost of occupation is higher than the benefit that the occupier gets. .
In case of Balochistan, while the Insurgency has been kept alive for decades, the second or the third condition were never met.
Specially on the geopolitical situation of the world for 6 decades post world war 2 there were 2 major powers US & the Soviet Union. Pakistan not only played the role for which it was created, to act as buffer state against Soviet Union, rather it went a step further and acted as a US client state. It worked on behest of US to fight its war in Afghanistan against the Soviet Union. So for obvious reasons it was in US interest to keep Pakistan intact forget helping Baloch cause. The other key players in world, Europe, was antagonistic to Baloch cause for them Balochistan was of no strategic use in chess of world. Last 2 decades after downfall of Soviet, Pakistan kept playing its role of US client state and kept itself of tactical use.
At a regional level in the game of Middle East as well, west of Pakistan, the key players are Saudi, Iran & Turkey. Saudi was on very friendly terms with Pakistan. In the initial phases of relationship Pakistan provided Military umbrella to Saudi and the Saudi kept its money & oil flowing back to Pakistan. In later stages, Saudi maintained good terms with Pakistan to maintain balance against Iran. So it was also in interest of Saudi & its allies to keep Pakistan intact.
Iran of all countries has a solid reason to keep quiet on Baloch cause as it is also an occupier in this case. Turkey was too busy in making itself a European country and hence a non-actor for this matter.
To the east of Pakistan lies its blood brother and arch enemy India. While the first 2 conditions needed for independence existed for Baloch on this side of the world. But East Pakistan got a pressing case for Independence before Balochistan as it had a geographical advantage of sitting away from Pakistan mainland and world saw a new country called Bangladesh. Had Indira Gandhi continued as Indian PM for longer may be she might have pursued Baloch cause, but unfortunate for Baloch no one after Indira had the cultural confidence in India to play this game.
Why now?
If there is something which modern history tells us with certainty is that Maps and borders change and new countries are formed when the World Order changes. Almost 3 dozen countries got independence or were formed within a decade or two after World War 2. Balochistan as well did get independence in the same era unfortunately to be soon captured by Pakistan.
Same happened when Soviet Union crashed, multiple new countries were formed in Balkans. So it can be said with confidence that when the world/ Regional geopolitics takes a turn it provides opportunities to different causes of Independence. Main point is being on the right side of the game. The world is right in the middle of change and changes are happening across the globe. As per Scott Morison the Australian Prime Minister we are almost in same situation as the world was in 1930s. While Henry Kissinger observes that the current state of US china relation reminds him of time before World war 1, around 1910. These both timelines by these 2 gentlemen are very alarming for the world however for Baloch it should be an opportunity of a century knocking at their doors.
At a Global level, the competition between US & China has already begin and it can be said with 90% certainty that it wont be an open conflict like world wars due to Nuclear threats but the war theaters would be across the world to destroy each other assets and investments . China has made considerable investment in Pakistan on CPEC which it considers of strategic importance as an alternate route to Mallaca choke point. That can definitely become a theater of war for US & China if Baloch leaders make enough noise around it and are successful in establishing that how much of strategic importance this piece of land is in this game of Geopolitical dominance for world leadership. It will definitely serve US as it raises issues for both China and Iran.
Also at a regional level, Turkey who was so far looking towards Europe has woken up and wants to build up its Ottoman dream and exert influence over the entire Muslim world, thus pitching it directly against Saudi Arabia. Pakistan which was aligned with Saudi suddenly has started feeling that their roots are not Arabic but Turkic and hence started getting close to Turkey. Recent spat between Saudi and Pakistan where Saudi asked Pakistan to pay back its loan is a testament to changing situation. With very passing week the lines are drawn more clearly and world is dividing itself into camps. Turkey, Iran, Pakistan, Qatar are clearly on China side which US and its allies sees as their enemies now. India which for most of its post-independence era has kept itself nonaligned will be now forced to take sides. This changing geopolitical landscape now makes it strategically important for US, Saudi & India to take up the Baloch cause. So in essence the geopolitical factors which aided Pakistan for 70 years have now been turned upside down and this fulfills the second condition that world geopolitics situation should provide support your cause for independence. On the third condition Pakistan’s economy is in a situation where Pakistan needs a loan to even pay the interest of old loans. Hence all 3 factors needed for independence of a landmass are met. Alignment of stars or matching of Kundlis has happened for Baloch people. So to Baloch freedom fighters your moment is here and now!! Make the most of it, if you miss this bus it might take another century before things get aligned for you. All the very best..
