2024 Kansas City Royals Offseason Sample Piece
I applied for a writing position a few weeks ago that I eventually did not get. As part of the process, they asked me to write a 750 word sample piece. I wrote 1200.
I thought the piece was really good and it led to me getting an interview. I thought I wrote a good piece and wanted to share it.
One key disclaimer: this was written before the Jonathan India trade (not that it changes much). I just wanted a place to keep this piece because I think its really good. Enjoy!
After finishing fourth or fifth in the American League Central over the last six seasons, the Royals spent money on Seth Lugo, Michael Wacha, and Hunter Renfroe to build sustainable success. They followed that up by trading for Michael Lorenzen, Lucas Erceg, and Hunter Harvey at the trade deadline.
Their efforts led to an 86-win season, a 30-win increase from 2023, a playoff birth for the first time since their World Series run in 2015, and a Wild Card win over the Baltimore Orioles.
After extending Michael Wacha for a more than reasonable three-year extension, it is easy to believe the Royals want to build off their 2024 season.
So how can the Royals do that and what ideas are obtainable? The Royals probably won’t sign Juan Soto in free agency or have the prospect capital to make a Garrett Crochet trade work.
So here are a few free agents who could fit the Royals roster and address some of the holes from 2024.
Michael Conforto LHH RF
.237/.309/.450, 112 wRC+, 1.3 fWAR
The Royals outfield ranked fourth worst in fWAR, third worst in wRC+, and despite Kyle Isbel’s best efforts were just a solid but not fantastic outfield defensively.
They tried signing Hunter Renfroe as a bounce-back candidate but it didn’t work. He didn’t hit the ball much harder and wasn’t consistent. He put together great numbers in June and July but was terrible in the other four. Renfroe is on the payroll for $7.5 million but is probably best as a part-time player at this point in his career.
MJ Melendez did not take the step forward the club was looking for and profiles more as a platoon bat. He hit just .164 with a .395 OPS against left-handed pitching in 74 plate appearances this season. Small sample size but there was also a reason it was so small.
His defense is also atrocious in left field with negative six-outs above average in 939.2 innings of left field. Maybe Melendez should be a part-time player in 2025.
Conforto wouldn’t bring spectacular defense but negative four OAA is still better than Renfroe or Melendez but more importantly, Conforto is a safe candidate to hit again.
He underperformed his xwOBA thanks to having an OPS 220 points lower at home than on the road. Conforto hit the ball harder again, raising his average exit velocity by over a mile per hour and his max EV resembled his best years in the late 2010s.
Conforto’s xwOBACON, a stat that measures how much damage you do on contact, was well over .400 again which wasn’t the case the previous two seasons.
The Michael Conforto fans known from a few years ago is still there and the Royals need it. Their left-handed hitters had an 89 wRC+ last season, the fifth worst in baseball and the lineup could use another middle-of-the-order bat.
Now the Royals outfield construction can look much different. Isbel can still trackballs in center field most days, Conforto slides into right field to play every day, and you can platoon Melendez and Renfore in left.
José Leclerc
66.2 innings, 4.32 ERA, 3.48 FIP, 0.8 fWAR
The Royals’ bullpen struggled to do two different things last year. First was struggling to find right-handed pitchers who could miss bats. Their right-handed bullpen arms had the worst strikeout rate in baseball last season and didn’t make up for it with fewer walks.
The second thing was having good breaking pitches. The Royals threw plenty of them, the fourth most in baseball but they weren’t good. They allowed the eighth-worst whiff rate, sixth-worst strikeout rate, and the eighth-highest slugging percentage on breaking pitches last season.
In short, they could use a right-handed pitcher who misses bats and there aren’t many better options than Leclerc.
Leclerc struck out 30.9% of the hitters he faced last season and had a whiff rate of 36%, both ranked in the top ten percent of baseball. This is thanks to a nasty slider he throws that carried a 45.7% whiff rate and a 45.5% strikeout rate.
Based on last season, the Royals are a perfect team to highlight Leclerc’s strengths. They threw the seventh most sliders out of any team last season and should ask Leclerc to throw it more.
Leclerc is also due to allow fewer home runs since last season was the first time his home run-to-fly ball rate was above 10% since 2019. It hovered around 6–8% in 2021 and 22. Going to Kauffman Stadium should help things too.
He would give them a lot more strikeouts from the right side and right-handed hitters hit just .193 against him this past season. They have plenty of left-handed options in Kris Bubic, Sam Long, and Daniel Lynch IV but need more right-handed swing and miss.
There could also be some intangible incentives to signing Leclerc. Manager Matt Quatraro experimented with using Lucas Erceg earlier in the highest leverage situations possible rather than just in the ninth inning as a traditional closer.
Leclerc has prior closing experience and might only get a one-year deal. There should be a good match here between these two teams.
Spencer Turnbull
54.1 innings, 2.65 ERA, 3.85 FIP, 0.7 fWAR
Spencer Turnbull took a one-year deal with the Philadelphia Phillies with his career in a crossroads. He had a 7.26 ERA with the Tigers back in 2023 and the relationship between him and the organization soured when he filed a grievance at the end of the year.
Philadelphia gave him a nasty sweeper and turned his career around as Philadelphia’s most reliable fifth starter.
The Royals value pitchers with complete arsenals, Seth Lugo throws a million different pitches, Wacha throws six, and their ace Cole Ragans throws five. They’re shopping Brady Singer who is strictly more of a sinker-slider pitcher. They have a type.
Turnbull would fit right in with this identity. He throws both a four-seam and two-seam, a nasty sweeper, a curveball, slider, and a changeup. He has a solid game plan for both right-handed and left-handed hitters and ways to adjust.
He would also give them another strong breaking pitch to go with what pitching coach Brian Sweeney wants to do. Opponents hit just .145 with a .226 slugging percentage against his sweeper last season. Turnbull had a 30.0% strikeout rate on the pitch as well.
Turnbull’s sweeper is also more of a platoon-neutral pitch than most sweepers. Left-handed hitters hit just .167 against it and didn’t hit the ball hard.
He has other weapons for left-handed hitters, he can work a four-seam fastball that has a little cutting action, a good curveball, and a hard changeup if needed.
The one problem is that Turnbull’s health is a major question. He only pitched 54.1 innings last year splitting time between being a starter and a reliever. He hasn’t pitched over 60 innings since 2019. His 2024 season was cut short because of a right lat strain he suffered in July.
That also means he might not get multi-year deals and there aren’t won’t be many other starters of his caliber signing for one season.
Leclerc and Turnbull are guys the Royals could likely have on one-year deals and Conforto is a possibility too. This is a realistic set of players that could fit into how much the Royals owners want to spend.
