Sam Dickinson: The Perfect Defenseman for the Sharks’ Pipeline
If this Sharks’ rebuild pans out, we will look back on this draft as one of the momentous turning points for the franchise.
It goes without saying that a large part of that is because of Macklin Celebrini. The all-skilled, unanimous #1 prospect from this year’s draft was taken 1st overall by the Sharks, to no one’s surprise whatsoever. The secret was so unkept, that the Sharks themselves were teasing the inevitability weeks in advance; from GM Mike Grier name-checking him during a press conference, to puns made on social media by team president Jonathan Becher, to even hosting a draft party at SAP Center, which was practically a coronation in his honor.
Of course, the Sharks’ later round picks may draw some level of excitement as well, with fans having a new handful of names to follow over the next few years. With their 7 picks on day two, the Sharks addressed their thinnest parts of the prospect pool, using 3 of them on defenseman, and another 2 on goalies. While most of them won’t pan out, there’s always a chance at any one of them becoming a future NHL contributor- one thing’s for sure, the organization certainly has to believe this before selecting someone.
But, perhaps the greatest intrigue around San Jose’s draft was not about the 1st pick, but rather their 11th. Yes, the Sharks had a 2nd lottery pick (initially being Pittsburgh’s pick 14 from the Erik Karlsson trade, before the Sharks used it to move up 3 spots), and with that came the chance to add a 2nd blue-chip prospect.
This position left many different possibilities, and trying to predict who could be available was nearly impossible.
If they were aiming for one of the draft’s 6 premier defensemen (which many felt was the case based on the Sharks’ need for blue-liners, and the position’s subsequent drop off after them), it certainly made sense to trade up. One of them falling to 11 was much more likely than to 14, but it wasn’t guaranteed.
And yet it did happen, just the way San Jose dreamed. With a run of forwards being taken early (including the shocker that started it all- Beckett Sennecke taken 3rd overall by Anaheim), Mike Grier didn’t just have 1 defenseman left available, but an actual choice between multiple.
Sam Dickinson, a 6’3, left-shot defenseman from the London Knights. Or Zeev Buium, a 6’0, left-shot defenseman from the University of Denver.
For more reasons than you think, these two would represent two philosophical opposites when it came to team building and talent evaluation. Both had legitimate arguments as the “best player available,” in completely different ways. And while either choice would quickly become the best defenseman in San Jose’s pipeline, the ramifications for building the rest of the roster would change with this pick.
Grier took Dickinson, a relative shock given the lack of smoke around him and the team. It wasn’t the sexy decision, but for the franchise, I firmly believe it was the correct decision. Here’s why:
Floor vs upside
After Celebrini, Dickinson may arguably be the safest pick in the first round.
While the other defensemen may have highlight reels that spark up Norris-caliber dreams, each one of them comes with flaws that could also spiral their development.
Levshunov and Yakemchuk have the build and offensive skill to become a cornerstone quarterback on the blue line, but do they have the hockey sense to become responsible defenders on the other end? Anton Silayev has drawn many Zdeno Chara comparisons throughout the draft cycle, but is his skating and puckwork established enough to become that type of threat on the offensive end? Parekh and Buium could be the most exciting defenders of the bunch with their two-way upside, but can they build up their strength to the level it requires in the NHL?
Do these risks justify passing on what some consider to be higher ceilings than Dickinson? Maybe not; after all, four other franchises decided to take one of them before the Sharks could even pick at all. But regardless, there are far fewer questions when it comes to Dickinson.
“It’s easy to envision him having a long NHL career,” wrote Corey Pronman for The Athletic in his May NHL draft rankings. “He’s a 6-foot-3 defenseman who is one of the best skaters in the draft.”
Dickinson’s path to becoming a full-time NHLer is relatively straightforward. To earn his ELC on-time, he doesn’t have to show something with London that he hasn’t already. He still has tons of potential, but the Sharks took him for the traits already present.
Size and muscle. A responsible, and active defensive game. An offensive game that includes a dangerous shot, serviceable playmaking, and a willingness to join the rush.
Every pick involves a certain degree of risk, but even a disappointing outcome for Dickinson would make him an NHL player that contributes to a competitive Sharks window. The end result for San Jose is one of the most bust-proof 1st rounds in recent memory. And it aligns with the precedent set under Mike Grier- valuing certainty over theory.
An ‘NHL 1D’
Now, just because something is certain doesn’t mean you can’t dream big.
After all, look at Will Smith- once seen as the “safe pick” over Zach Benson, a handful of Dmen, and most notoriously Matvei Michkov, he’s turned many doubters into believers with a draft +1 year for the ages. Ask around, and you won’t find many Sharks fans still denying the star potential he has; a whopping 71 points to lead the NCAA in scoring, and manning the most lethal line in college hockey will do that.
Sam Dickinson is the safe pick for a team targeting a defenseman. But, he can also reach the first pairing heights that are asked of lottery picks in his range. Especially in this current version of the NHL, which prioritizes strength and size so heavily.
He’s not a unicorn of a prospect, but if anything that means there’s a large precedent for bringing his style of play into the NHL, and molding it into winning hockey. Think about the league’s Alex Pietrangelo’s or John Carlson’s, and how they’ve not only contributed to Stanley Cups, but also stood the test of time.
Dickinson is built for all situations: 5-on-5, the penalty kill, the power play. He can be a positive on both ends of the ice, easily engulfing 20+ minutes a night no matter the opponent, no matter the partner.
As forwards get faster and more skilled than ever, you need quick defensemen on the other end that can keep up, and anchor the line. No defenseman in this class is more suited to the task than Dickinson, and that’s why most projections had him slotted in the top 10, with some scouts even arguing he could’ve been taken in the top 5.
So yes, dream as big as you’d like. This pick has the potential to give the Sharks a shutdown defender for the next decade, and it’s not as far off as you might think.
Current fit on the Sharks
It’s no secret the Sharks needed defensive prospects. But, perhaps no franchise needed a prospect like Dickinson more.
Sure, the Sharks have added intriguing defensive prospects over the last few seasons; among others, Henry Thrun established himself as a full-time NHLer this season, and 1st round prospect Shakir Mukhamadullin should do the same next season. Grier may have a potential mid-round steal in Luca Cagnoni, and then there’s guys like Jack Thompson, Jake Furlong, Eric Pohlkamp, and Mattias Havelid- names who could break into the organization’s plans at some point.
What San Jose lacks is a true cornerstone on the blue line. Someone that could set the identity of the next great Sharks defense. To an extent, even provide a stabilizing presence that fosters growth out of a potential defensive partner. A pick like Dickinson allows the Sharks to take future chances on offensive defensemen, who need a responsible partner to lean on when taking puck-moving risks. (As Sharks fans who sat through the Brent Burns-Erik Karlsson experiment, we should know this better than most).
This is compounded when you already have game-changers like Celebrini and Smith on the offensive end. Teams need game-changers, but for every game-changer, you also need a core of players willing to do the dirty work, putting them in the best position possible. Dickinson can be the beginning of a core that shores up that foundation.
This is a thought-experiment I’ve been pondering over the last week or so: Buium’s breathtaking level of skill with the puck is hard to pass up, but how much value would it truly bring to the Sharks, when forwards of that same archetype will be running the show regardless? This isn’t an argument against taking the best player available, but a question on who can become the best player available on a competitive Sharks team.
If your answer was still Zeev Buium, then I won’t argue against it. But, because Dickinson fills a massive void that few other players in the pipeline could achieve, I feel that he is the more likely one to be maximized in teal, while also helping do the same for others.
To clear any doubt that the choice wasn’t a coin-flip, Minnesota pounced right on San Jose’s decision, trading up and taking Buium at 12. One pick after Dickinson.
For better or worse, Dickinson and Buium will likely be compared to each other for the rest of their careers. Like Heiskanen and Makar before them, maybe both will turn out elite, largely silencing some level of discourse. Or maybe both will become busts, completely silencing discourse.
Would I be making the opposite argument if the Sharks had taken Buium instead? Probably. (After all, look at what was on my mind while they were on the clock.)
But, is my excitement for Dickinson still legitimate? Absolutely.
