Why A Trump Nomination Is A Gift To Modern Politics
Trump very well may make America great, but not in the way he intends.
Trump took the presidential race by storm and he’s not going away anytime soon. The billionaire announced his candidacy for president back in June of 2015 and most experts predicted that his campaign run would be short lived. But Trump’s presidential bid is far from over; on the heels of winning the Nevada Primary, he’s pushing full speed ahead. A Trump nomination is entirely possible, but the likelihood that he’ll win the general election is improbable.
Tonight marks the campaign’s third straight victory
A poll run by the New York Times found that the Tea-Party makes up roughly 21% of Americans. When it comes to the primaries, the Tea-Party has a more than favorable chance of deciding the Republican nomination; however, the general election is another story. The Tea-Party’s beliefs lie far to the right and are too conservative for the vast majority of general voters. Because of this, a candidate who resonates with the far right such as Trump, can win the primary yet be crushed by the weight of a thousand suns in the general election. With strong beliefs against immigration, harsh words against women and minority groups, and an erratic temperament, Trump simply won’t be able to pull the votes he needs from Independents or Moderates. This is not only a problem for Trump’s campaign, but the Republican party as a whole.
Most of the GOP understands the damage Trump’s campaign is causing the party. His candidacy is drastically increasing the tension between the traditional Republican establishment (The Old White Men’s Club) and the new outsiders (The Tea-Party & other Hard Right Conservatives).
The majority of Republicans don’t support Trump; in fact, according to NBC, he holds support from only 36% of the party. But even though most voters support a candidate other than Trump, there are so many candidates in the race that it drastically dilutes the anti-Trump vote, making him the out right front runner for the Republican nomination.
A Trump nomination would drastically change the face of the GOP. There are many reasons why this would be so, but I think the biggest issue would that it would turn the Republican party into one that excludes (even more than it already does) all but white, Christian people. That exclusion would be a knockout blow. The party already faces the reality that its core beliefs just don’t match that of the general public.
Minority groups already make up 37% of the U.S. population, and this number will only continue to rise over time. In fact by the year 2043, whites will no longer be the majority. The fact is you can no longer win a general election in today’s world without the votes of minority groups. The 2008 and 2012 elections are a prime example.
The Republican party faces the reality that its core beliefs just don’t match that of the general public.
What’s important for the Republican party, however, is not whether Trump can win the nomination — he can and most likely will — but rather what will happen to the Republican party if he does become the nominee. Most Republicans won’t vote for Trump in the general because, well, they are true Republicans.
This puts the party in a tough spot, either they decide that this election is a loss and work towards 2020, or the party splits into two groups: the Republican establishment (the insiders), and the outsiders (Trump’s followers). Both options don’t end well for the Grand Old Party, and in turn are terrific outcomes for the Democrats, no matter their nominee.
The GOP have lost the popular vote in five of the last six presidential elections
I like to imagine that this mess will result in positive systematic changes to the GOP, changes that the brightest minds in the party have been saying are necessary for quite awhile. This election season is a wake up call for many Republicans, and I doubt these problems will be ignored for much longer.
The GOP must die.
Now I don’t mean this literally, but what I am trying to say is that they can no longer be “the Grand Old Party”. I don’t think the party will cease to be entirely, but rather insinuating that a drastic facelift is in order; out with the old in with the new. As I said earlier: The Republican party faces the reality that it’s core beliefs just don’t match that of the general public, and if they want to stick around, a new era of conservatism is in order.
Socially I’m liberal, but fiscally I’m Conservative.
I hear my peers say this all the time, and it’s what gives me hope for the future of the Republican party. This is what the GOP should strive to become. An organization that doesn’t discriminate or shame, but one that accepts all people with welcoming arms. One that rallies behind economic policy rather than religious discernment. A new unified party that can muster the support of the masses.
Many individuals today are stuck deciding which is more important: Conservative Economics or Liberal Social Beliefs, and economics are losing.
This newly remodeled GOP would pack a punch. But it would also drastically help the bipartisan effort, leading to increased efficiency in the upper most ranks of Government.
A Trump nomination is bound to start a domino affect, one that will ultimately lead to positive change within Republican Party. In the end, this shift in politics will benefit all sides. The era of Trump is now; and he very well may make America great, but not in the way he intends.
Polls and chart for 2016 National Republican Primary. See the latest estimates and poll results at HuffPost Pollster.elections.huffingtonpost.com
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