NBA Eastern ConferenceWin Totals Best Bets
The NBA season is right around the corner so today we will look at my favorite win total bets for the Eastern Conference. Tomorrow I will take a look at the Western Conference but for now, we will stick with the east, the conference in which the Boston Celtics won last season. The Eastern Conference is loaded with talented teams and MVP-caliber players so the challenge of getting a spot in the playoffs usually comes down to a small margin. I’ve got four teams that I consider my best bets we will take a deeper look so let’s jump into it.
Bet One: Washington Wizards Over 35.5 Wins (+100)
The Wizards finished fourth in the Southeast division last season and ended up with a 35–47 record. Finishing fourth in the division and with a below .500 win percentage is obviously not what Wizards fans were hoping for but I believe the pieces are there for this team to take the next step in competing. Now, this is not me declaring Washington a team with Eastern Conference Finals potential but with the Bradley Beal trade or extension drama being put to rest with him signing a five-year max contract extension I think the Wizards could find themselves in the play-in tournament competing for a playoff spot at the end of the season. Paying Beal and getting him healthy were two big off-season steps for this franchise especially since the injury bug stuck around in Washington all of last season. Beal and Rui Hachimura both averaged more than 22 minutes per game last season but they also were only able to play less than 42 games due to injury.
Between last season’s trade deadline and this offseason, the Wizards enter this year with almost an entirely different roster. Kristaps Porzingas was brought in last year at the deadline and barring he stays healthy the potential of him and Beal together for a full season is intriguing. In 17 games for the Wizards last season, Porzingas averaged 22.1 points and 8.8 rebounds per game which a full season of similar if not better production only opens the floor a bit more for Beal. This offseason Washington acquired two pieces I think round out the starting line-up nicely in Will Barton and Monte Morris. Barton is a nice piece who can shoot the ball well as he averaged 14.7 points per game last season and had a 36.5% three-point percentage. Morris is a solid point guard who will only help out guys like Bradley Beal and Kyle Kuzma get more shots throughout a game.
One of the biggest reasons I trust that the Wizards can go over their win total is the young players they have coming off the bench. Johnny Davis was the team’s lottery pick this year and offers a level of scoring off the bench this team did not possess last year. Corey Kispert and Deni Avdija are two players that if they can take the next step will also provide more instant offense off the bench and depth if the injury bug returns this year. Lastly, if Daniel Gafford can continue to improve and increase his rebounding numbers that will help tremendously especially since the Wizards were a bottom three team in offensive rebounding last season averaging just 9 a game. With all of this being said I think this team can and will improve this season and even if it’s a little improvement they only need to win one more game than they did last season to go over this win total.
Bet Two: Orlando Magic Over 26.5 Wins (-120)
Orlando comes into this season after finishing last year 22–60 and finishing in last place in the Southeast Division. Luck was on their side this offseason though as they were able to win the NBA Draft lottery and select Paolo Banchero first overall adding to a talented young core. In order for this Magic team, who is the second youngest team in the league, to go over their win total a lot of developmental steps need to happen for a few players this season and I believe they can. Admittedly I thought the Magic had a terrible roster last season and winning 22 games is not good by any stretch of the imagination but my hesitancy last year came from uncertainty of how players like Franz Wagner would be in the NBA. Well after seeing things play out last year my confidence has grown, it is common for players to make jumps in their second year in the league so if guys like Wagner and Jalen Suggs make strides throughout the season it only makes sense the wins increase a bit as well.
In his rookie year last year, Wagner averaged 15.2 points per game and shot 46.8% from the field so an improvement in his game and another year of maturity is an exciting idea for Magic fans and over-lovers like myself. Jalen Suggs is the player everyone has questions about heading into this season and what his ceiling might be, he struggled to shoot it last year and dealt with injury as well but with injuries to Markelle Fultz and Gary Harris he will be thrust into a major role early on this season. The addition of Banchero I believe will really help Suggs and his development based on everything Banchero can bring to the offense the duo will be able to feed off each other and make Suggs’s job a lot easier. Chuma Okeke is another player who if he can take a leap offensively makes the Magic bench more appealing. Okeke is an excellent defensive player, who even led the team in steals last season averaging 1.4 per game, and also provides help rebounding as well but if his points per game can increase from an average of 8.6 last season and get into double digits this season it could turn him into a valuable bench piece.
For the most part, we know what guys like Wendall Carter, Cole Anthony, and Mo Bamba are like and what they bring to the table so for them it comes down to exceeding their defined roles. I am higher on Cole Anthony than some and I enjoy his ability to score but if he can limit his mistakes and refine his shot selection a bit he will only elevate his game and this team in year three. Carter and Bamba seemed to have reached their ceilings but can still be effective role players. If Carter can bring back the same production on the rebounding end (10.5 rebounds per game last season) as the starting center and Bamba fills his role defensively this young core should be able to reach 28 or 29 wins.
Bet Three: New York Knicks Under 39.5 Wins (-130)
The Knicks finished fifth in the loaded Atlantic division with a record of 37–45. I was pretty high on them before last season but after a weird and confusing offseason, I have gone the opposite way in my opinion of the Knicks. New York entered free agency and gave Jalen Brunson a 4-year contract worth 104 million and although Brunson is a nice player I don’t think it fixed anything for them. The Knicks then proceeded to have a lackluster draft, trade Alec Burks and Nerlans Noel for nothing, and were involved in Donavan Mitchell trade talks but ultimately did not land him so they just extended RJ Barrett.
This roster does not excite me and although I do like Barrett and the scoring ability that Brunson adds there truly isn’t a lot of depth on this roster. The young core the Knicks have could be exciting but Tom Thibodeau gave really inconsistent minutes to those guys last season so there are a lot of question marks for me and I think a lot of Knicks fans as well. One of those questions or concerns is will a guy like Cam Reddish actually sees playing time of value; because after being traded to the Knicks last season in 15 games he only averaged 14.4 minutes a game. I bring this up because if you look at the Knicks roster it is not deep at all and I struggle to see how they will score when the second unit is in. New York was a bottom ten time in bench points per game last season with 33.2 points per game so guy’s like Reddish and Quentin Grimes need to make big jumps in playing time and scoring or else this issue will remain the same.
Brunson, Barrett, and Randle are a fine core group of guys and Brunson is certainly a positive addition but the Eastern Conference is too good to not have depth so it might be close but I don’t think the Knicks have the durability to win 40 games this year.
Bet Four: Cleveland Cavaliers Over 47.5 Wins (-125)
Out of nowhere, the Cavaliers acquired Donovan Mitchell from the Jazz, and now the team that finished 44–38 last season and third in the Central Divison is looking to push their way into a top team in the Eastern Conference. I liked the Cavs before the trade went down just based on the young guys they have but now with a legitimate star in the mix, I definitely think they can win at least four more games than last year.
I talked about it earlier with young player development and taking the jump in year two and the development of Evan Mobley is an exciting thought. Mobley averaged 15 points and 8.3 rebounds per game in his rookie season showing off his massive potential all year. If Mobley continues his development and makes a step up like Darius Garland did from year two to three then this Cavs offense will be hard to stop. Not only did Garland’s scoring increase but his assist total jumped to 8.6 per game and it might make see another increase just by playing alongside Mitchell. Rounding out the Cavs starting line-up are Isaac Okoro and Jarrett Allen, two guys that are above average at their role. Okoro is a great defender while Allen is a stellar rebounder (he averaged 10.8 rebounds per game last season) this shows the Cavs are not one dimensional which is important when trying to be one of the best teams in the East.
Having a veteran bench is a huge plus here and another reason I like the over for this team. Caris LeVert is a really strong player to be able to come off the bench and provide scoring. In just 19 games for the Cavs last season he averaged 13.6 points per game so he will be able to lead an experienced bench in scoring. This Cavaliers team is one of the teams I look forward to watching the most and I believe a 50-win season is attainable for this group.
*odds from Draftkings sportsbook (subject to change)
*stats from basketball-reference.com
