The curious case of ‘Expected Value’
Everyone reading this probably knows what it is, so I wont spend time explaining it.
Here is what Google says ‘Expected Value’
It amazes me, about how much we say we understand this, and how much we actually do.
There was a very interesting movie from 2002 called Road (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Road_(film) which had a dialogue that went like this [sic] “Bola woh, samjha mein”, which is a way in Hindi to say you understood what someone else was just saying. I think ‘Expected Value’ has a similar theme to it.
As I take stock of 2015, and especially look at the successes and failures we’ve seen in the valley, it amazes me how many people discount this concept while saying they understand it. Quite a dissonance. If HomeJoy, Zirtual, Sidecar in private markets and Box, Square, Etsy and others in public markets have taught us something it’s this: Its very easy to talk of expected value, and an entirely different thing to internalize it.
I’ve seen too many friends and connections take on risky bets, and thats ok, no pain no gain. But I thought of writing this short post to quickly point out, expected value, like karma is a …