The mechanics of the world and the effect of artificial intelligence on the future

All of us come across existential questions like “What is the purpose of life?”, “Why do we exist?”, etc. some point in time in our life. I don’t know the answers to these questions but I have an opinion about “Why am I doing what I am doing?”.

All living beings have a role to play in the sustenance of life on Earth. Plants, herbivores, carnivores, omnivores, mammals, vertebrates, reptiles, amphibians, aquatic animals, birds, insects and other different overlapping categorisations of living beings are dependent on each other for fulfilment of mutual needs. Human beings also played a positive role in this ecosystem till very recently.

But as human beings thrived, they started creating newer needs and to fulfil those needs they changed the functionality of the ecosystem. It all started with the invention of tools and ability to control fire. Before that human beings had to depend upon their physical strength and agility to hunt and avoid being hunted. Slowly food was not as difficult to arrange for, as it was earlier. Onset of agriculture and animal husbandry meant that human beings could produce their own food. They started living in small groups which laid the foundation of modern day society. Some people became farmers, some took the job of cattle herders, some produced cloth and some manufactured weapons. Everyone was required to contribute in some way to the society. Initially this exchange of goods and services happened through barter system.

Problem of continuous food supply, shelter and clothes were the initial few ones to be addressed by humans around the world in numerous small societies across the world around the same time. When people from different societies started interacting, they realised that different societies had different kinds of expertise in producing goods and services and it made sense to trade. You take our wheat and give us your spices. Barter system continued in trade as well.

Currency made this exchange of goods and services more efficient. They didn’t have to exchange a portion of wheat with carpenter and another with milkman separately while keeping a stock of wheat in the storage for fulfilment of future needs. People could now go to the wheat buyers and sell their stock in one go, take currency equivalent to the worth of their stock and later use the same currency to buy things produced by other people. Currency became the lubricant for a well functioning society. Now a days we call this exchange of goods and services as economic activity and it is measured as the total value of goods and services produced. For a country, it is denoted by Gross Domestic Product (GDP).

With population boom and globalisation demand for goods and services increased which meant that more people could be utilised in fulfilling the demand. More people started earning. More wealth was created. Overtime, the growth in global wealth has been more than growth in global population. This implies that people’s average discretionary income has increased and per capita consumption of goods and services has also increased overtime. The increase in per capita consumption is the driver of modern day economic activity.

AI is the biggest threat to human productivity and contribution to economic activity. If more and more people are not able to contribute to the society, the per capita discretionary income will reduce which in turn will reduce the per capita consumption of goods and services. The reduction in demand of goods and services will hamper the profitability of different companies which will further cause unemployment.

Companies like Google, Amazon, Facebook, Apple, IBM and Microsoft are dependant on consumerism. These companies are also the companies which are enabling AI the most. So it doesn’t make sense for these companies to let people lose jobs and hamper their own revenues. I believe that these companies will be the biggest contributors in making sure that most of the people get some kind of job either by re-skilling or up-skilling.

There is an alternate possibility as well. What if human beings no longer remain the only consumers in the economic activity of the world? What if AI becomes the consumer itself? Unimaginable! Right? I felt the same when this thought came in my mind. Currently we can think of computer hardware, software and energy being the only three kinds of things which AI needs to sustain. What if the Intelligence in Artificial Intelligence becomes so realistic that it develops emotions and desires of its own? There is a possibility that AI develops liking for certain kind of entertainment, develops a taste for certain kinds of food of its own and seeks pleasure in certain kind of sports activity. This is bizarre. Hear me out. Who would have thought that human beings would need a hand held device where they would watch entertaining videos 100 years ago? Who would have thought that human beings would need entertainment or would like to consume food not only for physical needs but also because it tastes good 10,000 years ago? Nobody. Once we surpassed the basic requirements for survival, we started seeking other things. The future is so unpredictable that no one can deny the possibility of such a bizarre phenomenon in future where AI would develop preferences and start consuming.

Already, governments are talking about robots having wages and being liable for taxes to compensate for tax revenue loss due to human unemployment. Governments would then be able to sustain non working population to the extent that they won’t die out of hunger. According to me, something like this will not be sustainable in the long run. Either humans will have to adjust to the new normal and live in scarcity or AI will start its own economic activity and reduce dependency on human beings (If they don’t wipe out the entire human race first) :) .

I apologise for showing such a grim picture. Most probably, nothing of that sort will happen. Some people will no longer be required for their services and some will be required. The people who are not required in the formal economic activity, will initially be dependent on the government for survival and eventually start their own parallel economic activity. They will fulfil each other’s needs to the extent that they are able to survive. If AI is not threatened by the existence of such people, it should let them live peacefully.