Shohei Ohtani Top 5 Free Agency Destinations
Shohei Ohtani is a once-in-a-lifetime talent who will be an upcoming free agent this offseason with his ability to both hit or pitch. He is supposed to reset the market with a contract that will exceed $500 million and possibly touch $600 million. His free agency is supposed to be a boon to a generally uneventful time in baseball, which is the offseason.
Ohtani is having the best year of his career, as he is currently hitting .306/.409/.672 with 40 HR, 83 RBI, 16 SB, and a 182 wRC+ to earn a 5.8 fWAR on offense while pitching to a 3.17 ERA with a 4.02 FIP, 3.58 xFIP, 3.64 SIERA, 11.36 K/9, 21.1% K-BB%, a 45.5% ground ball rate, and a 96.8 MPH average fastball in 130.2 innings to earn a 2.3 fWAR on the mound. His career stats are excellent too, hitting .274/.364/.556 with 167 HR, 425 RBI, 82 SB, a 145 wRC+, and 19.1 career fWAR on offense while pitching to a 3.02 ERA, 3.31 FIP, 3.28 xFIP, 11.35 K/9, 22.3% K-BB%, a 43.4% ground ball rate, and a 96.5 MPH average fastball in 480.1 innings. Normally, a team would be able to easily keep such a one-of-a-kind talent. However, since the Angels are run by corrupt ownership(thank you Arte Moreno), it is likely that Ohtani leaves the Angels in free agency after this year to join a more competent franchise.
Photo of the legend himself, Shohei Ohtani
Three important factors come to mind when I think of teams that have a chance at signing Ohtani: Money, a winning culture, and being on the West Cost. Money is going be key to signing Ohtani, as he is projected to shatter Mike Trout’s 12 year, $426 million dollar deal in both years and AAV. He should easily get over $500 million, and I’ve heard rumors that he could get up to $600 million. With 10–12 years as a likely contract length, very few teams will be able to actually afford him, especially long-term. The second contractual factor for Ohtani is a winning culture. According to his translator, he is very frustrated with the Angels’ lack of winning. I would expect him to try to go to a place where he can go and play in October, which means that your team would need more than just money. Finally, according to rumors, Ohtani prefers the West Coast. This is most likely due both the proximity of the West Coast to Japan and many large West Coast cities having large Japanese populations. With Ohtani’s next destination likely being his last one, he will most likely want to go to somewhere where he’s beloved.
Using these three criteria, I will choose 5 teams and 3 honorable mentions who have the greatest shot at signing Ohtani. I will put all 3 on and use a yes, maybe, or no to evaluate them. I will include a percentage amount for the team to show their chances of getting him. I will also add an explanation on why Ohtani is a fit on that team so that you can understand. Hope you enjoy!
Top 5 Shohei Ohtani destinations:
- Dodgers
Money: Yes
Winning culture: Yes
West Coast: Yes
Chance of getting him: 50%
Explanation: The Dodgers are the perfect destination for Shohei Ohtani. They have been the winningest team since 2010, with a 1244–871 record(58.8% win percentage). They also have 10 playoff appearances, 9 Division Titles, 3 World Series appearances, and a championship in the last 10 years. This year, they have a strong 69–46 record to lead the division by 7.5 games, with stud talents like Will Smith, Freddie Freeman, and Mookie Betts on the team. On top of this winning history and elite current product, they have the 6th ranked farm system in baseball right now, showing that they can be a good team long-term. Besides this ability to win, the Dodgers have the 6th ranked payroll at $238 million and have shown the willingness to spend big before(Mookie Betts, Freddie Freeman). Finally, the Dodgers are located in a big West Coast city in Los Angeles, which has a large and thriving Japanese population. With Japanese pitchers like Hideo Nomo, Takashi Saito, and Kenta Maeda, having success there, he should be a great fit both on and off the field. I think that the Dodgers have the highest chance of getting him and it isn’t even close.
2. Giants
Money: Maybe
Winning culture: Yes
West Coast: Yes
Chance of getting him: 15%
Explanation: I think the Giants are an under-the-radar destination for Shohei Ohtani. First of all, they have had a strong recent winning history, with 3 World Series in 2010, 2012, and 2014 and the 8th best record(1100–1017, 52.0% winning percentage) since 2010. They have also had good seasons recently, winning 107 games in 2021 and going 62–54 to be 7.5 games behind the Dodgers this year. This team is known for overachieving with limited talent, so it would be interesting to see what they can do with star talent like Ohtani. On top of their winning, they are located in a large, diverse city on the West Coast and have a solid Japanese population. The Giants also have a beautiful ballpark and loyal fanbase. The main reservation for the Giants is money. They are currently 11th in payroll($187 million) but have not made many big moves recently. Perhaps, this is due to the extensions of their old players. One hope for Ohtani is that the Giants were going to sign Correa to a 13 year, $350 million deal until he failed his physical. I wouldn’t be surprised if they make a large offer here. The big issue is that the Dodgers can probably offer him more.
3. Padres
Money: Yes
Winning culture: Maybe
West Coast: Yes
Chance of getting him: 12%
Explanation: With how the Padres spend their money, you can never rule them out when a big free agent hits the market, no matter if the player fits the team or not. In the last few years, they have signed Manny Machado, signed Eric Hosmer, signed Xander Bogaerts, extended Fernando Tatis Jr., extended Manny Machado, and extended Yu Darvish, with 3 of those moves(Bogaerts signing, Machado extension, Darvish extension) happening over last offseason. All of these moves were $100 million contracts or greater. They are currently 3rd in baseball with a payroll of $253 million and I don’t see that going down anytime soon with Peter Seidler as owner. On top of the money he can get from San Diego, it is located on the West Coast. It doesn’t have the Japanese population that Los Angeles or San Francisco has though. On top of that, the Padres lack a winning culture, being tied for 24th with a 999–1120(47.1%) record since 2010 and only making the twice in the last 10 years. This includes missing the playoffs entirely in 2015 and 2021 despite having star-studded teams, with 2023(56–60, 13.5 games out of first) not looking much better for them. The Padres will have interest but Ohtani has other options out there.
4. Rangers
Money: Yes
Winning culture: Yes
West Coast: No
Chance of getting him: 10%
Evaluation: Talking about teams who like to spend money, you can’t count out the Rangers to get him. They have flexed their financial muscles in the last 2 years by signing guys like Corey Seager, Marcus Semien, and Jacob deGrom to huge deals(over $150 million to each of them). They are currenly 4th in payroll at $247 million and that number won’t be going down anytime soon with their current all-in push. The Texas Rangers are currently middle of the pack with a 1061–1059(50.0%) win percentage from 2010 onwards. However, some changes were made recently to change the mediocrity, with Bruce Bochy being hired and the aforementioned star players being brought in. These improvements have led the Rangers to a 69–47 record this year. They also have the 7th ranked farm system in all of baseball, which shows their long-term potential. The main hesitation for Ohtani’s team is that the Rangers aren’t located on the West Coast. With a smaller Japanese population, the Rangers are not an ideal destination.
5. Mariners
Money: No
Winning culture: Maybe
West Coast: Yes
Evaluation: The idea of Shohei Ohtani in Seattle is very enticing. It is located in a large city on the West Coast with a large Japanese population. T-Mobile Park is one of the most beautiful stadiums out there. The Mariners have showed recent promise, breaking their 21-year playoff drought last year and going 62–52 this year. They have a dominant young pitching staff with guys like George Kirby, Logan Gilbert, and Luis Castillo while having studs on offense like Julio Rodriguez and Cal Raleigh, so their team should be strong in the future. So, what is the big issue? It comes with money. Their owner John Stanton is not known for spending lots of money, and that is shown this year with the payroll being 18th in the league with a mere $134 million. I would not rule them out as Ohtani is a special talent who can change their trajectory, but I think they get outbid again.
Honorable mentions:
Phillies
Money: Yes
Winning culture: Yes
West Coast: No
Chances of getting him: 3%
Evaluation: The Phillies are a very interesting team in the race for Ohtani. With an aggressive John Middleton as owner, they are 5th in payroll at $245 million, flexing their muscles with large acquisitions like Bryce Harper, JT Realmuto, and Trea Turner over the last few years. On top of that, they broke their 11-year player drought last year and are most likely playoff-bound again at 65–52 this year. The main hesitation for Ohtani won’t be money, but location. With Philadelphia being located on the East Coast and not having a huge Japanese population, I just don’t see the Phillies getting him. However, we did say the same thing about them and Harper, so I wouldn’t rule them out.
Mets
Money: Yes
Winning culture: Maybe
West Coast: No
Chances of getting him: 2%
Evaluation: I would have the Mets much higher on the chase for Ohtani considering that they have Steve Cohen as owner and an enormous $344 million payroll, which leads the league by far. However, there is one major thing that stops the Mets from this great pursuit. They are currently in a short-term rebuild, trading Max Scherzer, Justin Verlander, David Robertson, Tommy Pham, Mark Canha, and Dominic Leone at the deadline after a 100 win season last year. On top of all of these trades, Steve Cohen stated that the Mets plan to contend around 2025–2026 instead of in 2024. With these statements, I feel like the Mets are going to pursue Juan Soto much more aggressively than Shohei Ohtani considering their timeline. You can never count out the richest owner in baseball when it comes to acquiring star players though. New York is obviously an appealing destination, but Ohtani might prefer the West Coast.
Cubs
Money: Maybe
Winning culture: Maybe:
West Coast: No
Chances of getting him: 1%
Evaluation: The Cubs are an interesting wild card team for Ohtani. They have been decent this year with a 60–56 record. They have some solid recent history, with a World Series ring held up back in 2016. They have also shown some willingness to spend, being 11th in payroll at $186 million with their acquisitions of Dansby Swanson, Marcus Stroman, and Jameson Taillon over the last 2 years. Their biggest hope though, is their #2 ranked farm system, which shows hope and upside for a good long-term future in Chicago. However, there are some flaws that Chicago will have to overcome. While it is a diverse big city, it is located in the Midwest, which isn’t where Ohtani(or most Japanese superstars) want to play. On top of that, their financial capabilities are more good than great, so I expect them to be outbid. The Cubs are an intriguing destination for Ohtani but I see him going elsewhere.
What about the Angels’ chances of re-signing him?: I personally think the Angels chances of re-signing him are very low. Even though they have lots of money($236 million payroll) and are located on the West Coast, they lack the winning culture, having a 1056–1064 record and a 49.8% since 2010 with no playoff berths since 2014, with them being 58–59 this year(including 2–8 in their last 10 games). On top of that, Arte Moreno is one of the worst owners in the league, as he is known for meddling in team affairs with his GM instead of letting the team be run functionally. The Angels’ farm system suffers because of this, being ranked second worst in all of baseball. One of Ohtani’s top goals is winning and Anaheim is currently unable to suit him there. The Angels are also located in Orange County, which isn’t exactly a place known for its Japanese culture. The future is looking bleak for the Angels right now, and the decision to not trade Ohtani at the deadline is looking like a bad one. Arte Moreno is one of the worst owners in baseball who should be ashamed of how he ran this team.
Here’s the photo of the clown who is responsible for letting Ohtani leave:
Hopefully you enjoyed this article! I very much look forward to Ohtani’s free agency this offseason! I would love to hear others’ predictions!
