Understanding the larger crisis around the current migration situation

The current large scale migration situation in Europe is becoming critical. New sustainable solutions need to be created. For development and eventual long-term solutions, we need a deeper, system-level understanding of the causes.

The number of Europe-bound migrants has increased significantly over the last few years. Conflicts in middle-east, including the recent ongoing Syrian conflict, instability in Libya ; subsequently weaker border controls has led to a stream of refugees aspiring to get into Europe to start new lives. While a lot of migrants are running from war, conflict and persecution, a significant percentage constitutes economic migrants.

Porous borders have made it easier for people smugglers to traffic large number of people through the borders both in places south of Sahara, like Niger, and Mediterranean coast of North Africa. In addition, increased information flow through social media has made it easier for would-be- migrants to connect with people smugglers.

European Union and the UN’s High Commissioner for Refugees (UNHCR) make a distinction between genuine asylum seekers and economic migrants. Although it can be quite subjective, but among the major refugee groups, people from Ivory Coast, Nigeria, Mali, Gambia, Mauritania and many other countries where migrants come not because of persecution but because of economic prospects — have usually been considered as economic migrants as they are not seeking asylum due to persecution or conflict. On the other hand, migrants, in general, from countries with conflict and persecution such as Syria, Iraq, Afghanistan, Eritrea, Sudan, Somalia are considered genuine asylum seekers based on UNHCR guidelines.

Countries of origin and migration routes in the Sub-Saharan region. Data from International Centre for Migration Policy. Image source: Reuters.

A number of economic migrants constitute people who are unemployed graduates, employable or employed in their home countries. They have the potential to create economic opportunities for themselves through jobs or businesses but due to socioeconomic conditions and lack of guidance are unable to realize their potential in their home countries. As they do not see much opportunity to fulfill their aspirations in their home countries, they choose to migrate towards, what they perceive as, greener pastures in Europe and other developed regions of the world.

Figure: Comparison of different routes used by irregular migrants to Europe (parts of 2014–2015). Image source: FRONTEX.

Figure: Detection of illegal border crossing at European external borders (parts of 2014–2015). Image source: FRONTEX.

Costs and Consequences:
There are several consequences of the growing number of economic migrants to Europe:

• The brain drain from the countries of origin, which becomes a cycle. Limited possibilities and dire socioeconomic circumstances force people of productive age to leave, but as more people depart, the human resource of the countries gets depleted. It also sets a trend and example for other people to migrate as well.
• In European countries, it has challenged the Schengen free travel zone and the very foundation of shared responsibilities in the EU. Due to increasing pressure on resources and socio-political challenges, governments in different countries find it challenging to honor their countries’ mandated quota for asylum seekers. A number of countries have also closed borders from time to time which affects trade and transport and lead to economic losses. Europe’s asylum laws, theEU’s Dublin regulation etc. are all under threat.
• The large inflow of people from different cultures into a society over short period of time can have complex consequences. There can be prejudices, misunderstandings, insecurities and cultural misinformation and the likelihood of increase in number of opportunistic miscreants’ increases. Slightest nudge or provocation can lead to much tension in societal relations. It certainly has catalyzed rise of far-right groups leading to much social unrest in several countries.
• Due to the increased number of refugees and asylum applications, the budget and resources for such purposes have been overstretched. This has led to a decrease in money and resource allocation for refugees who indeed have come escaping conflict and persecution — the so called “genuine” refugees. This also increases the likelihood of error when processing cases and allocation of resources which can have further negative consequences.
• But one of the biggest and most tragic costs is the loss of lives. Several asylum aspirants with dreams of making it to Europe first cross the deadly Sahara and then the Mediterranean Sea and thousands of lives are lost during these journeys. Thousands of people with so much potential just die and a lot of times their friends and families do not even come to know about what eventually happened to their friends, sons, daughter, father, mother, aunt, uncle. This is a human tragedy.

The concerning thing is that all the above have long term consequences and can lead to yet unforeseeable consequences spread across geographical regions: the loss of lives, loss of stability, money, resources and of the growth potential of the countries of origins or even whole regions. The crisis that such migration leads to is much larger and, therefore, there is a need to create systemic, sustainable solutions and not depend on short-term quick fixes.

There has been a talk about many possible solutions — closing the borders, returning the migrants, paying the governments in countries of origin etc. But if we can help to create possibilities of ecosystems of potential growth and prosperity in the countries of origin, there is a good chance of a lasting solution which can create win-win situation in the long run. The ingredients are all there, the expertise, desire, is all there. Its just about putting it all together in a systematic model which is well tested and optimized.

I propose the Grow Movement model, its scaling to countries where main cause of migration is mainly socioeconomic. In another article, I describe the Grow movement model and how it can help create a sustainable, long-term solution to alleviate the migration crisis and how it can create win-win-win situations and benefits for all stakeholders involved.

# I would like to thank Wouter Verster, Karin Stumpf, Craig Harrison, Claire Jenkins, Josh Cheetham, Claus Gladyszak and Jeremy Roebuck for their constructive comments towards shaping this blog post.