To do Nothing is Provocative

My interview with Linas Linkevičius, foreign minister of Lithuania. Interviewer: Adam Reichardt

ADAM REICHARDT: Let’s start with the change in Polish government as a result of the recent elections. How do you assess this change and how do you think it will affect Polish-Lithuanian relations?

LINAS LINKEVIČIUS: First and foremost, we will work with whatever government is chosen by the Polish people, but there are factors and a certain environment which speak about the need for us to co-operate and coordinate. We are literally in the same boat as Poland in terms of security issues such as defensibility, the NATO context and defence planning. It would be senseless to say anything to the contrary, try to invent something new or not to use what we have already built in terms of co-operation. We need to address these challenges together as they are in the national interests of both our countries — and this is regardless of what government is in charge. The conditions and the reasons speak for themselves.

This also goes for strategic energy projects. This year in the middle of December we will inaugurate the new electricity bridge, the LitPol-Link, which will become operational. The same goes for the NordBalt Link which connects our power grid to Sweden. Another important decision was reached and signed recently regarding the financing of the Lithuanian-Polish gas connection. And a real breakthrough moment for the whole region was the construction of the LNG terminal in Klaipeda, which went into operation at the end of last year. This was truly a revolution because previously Gazprom had a full monopoly on the gas market in this region. And as we know the energy supply is not just a technical or economical issue, but has become a political issue, allowing Russia to have leverage over some countries. We were basically held hostage to the situation for a long time. This terminal, which has a capacity of four billion cubic metres — much more than Lithuania needs, which is around 2.7 bcm — allows us to share with the region. We already have some contracts with Estonia, buying 20 per cent of its gas from Klaipeda, and Latvia will probably follow. Having now connections with Poland and its terminal in Świnoujście, it has really made a qualitative change.

Do you see the Polish terminal as competition to the one in Klaipeda?

I would rather say these are complementary projects. It is critically important to have this infrastructure and framework built, which it is not yet fully complete but already the effects are quite visible. This diversification of energy supplies is a joint endeavour of Poland and Lithuania. We really are in this situation where we must use these conditions and facilities and challenges, which unite us together. It is not only important to the interests of the countries in the region, but also for the whole of the European Union. Again, regardless of what government is in Warsaw. Security and foreign affairs should not change.

You mentioned that Poland and Lithuania are in the same boat in terms of defence and security. Poland is vocally lobbying for a permanent stationing of NATO troops on its soil. Does Lithuania support this move? And is it possible to achieve, considering some of the pushback in countries like Germany?

It is very import to note that during the NATO summit in Wales we made key decisions on this very topic, in other words more presence on the ground, in the air on the sea — including in our region, the eastern flank. We agreed that there would be an increase of NATO presence. Perhaps the term “permanent presence” might not be used as it is too sensitive for some members, but I believe that if the troops will be in the region “permanently” for training, rotation, exercises — well that is exactly what we need. We need these boots on the ground and the tangible arguments, because our opponents see and understand these clear messages.

What’s more, we are clear that this has nothing to do with aggression. I remember the earlier days in NATO when there were discussions that we cannot have exercises on Article 5 (the agreement that an attack on one country is an attack on all — editor’s note) because this would be too provocative. We are now starting to realise that actually being unprepared is more provocative. It is provocative if you are doing nothing, or not stating your position clearly when it is needed. We need to learn from the past. Whatever conflict you mention, like the South Caucasus in 2008 or recent events in Ukraine and the occupation of Crimea. Or even potential risks for Transnistria. We could even mention Syria…

But do you think these lessons are actually being learnt?

Exactly, I do not think so. If we had learnt some lessons, we would not have the repetition of the same scenarios. This means we should not be naïve. We have to be more practical, not aggressive, but consistent and respect our own decisions. How many wakeup calls do we need to wake up?

In July 2016, Warsaw will host the next NATO summit. What are your expectations for this summit?

I believe that we will continue the same spirit established at the Wales Summit. What has already been implemented has been very efficient and the NATO military leadership is doing a good job in this regards. It understands the threats which include new and sophisticated ones like hybrid warfare, cyber, energy and information warfare. It really is a different field than during the Cold War and not always directly related to hard security, but you cannot neglect it. It must be accounted for. Also the decision-making procedures need to be improved. We have a body of 28 members which should act accordingly, timely and efficiently. This should be discussed in Warsaw.

Lastly, let’s switch to Ukraine. Lithuania has been one of the staunchest allies of a post-Maidan Ukraine. How do you assess the current situation in that country?

The situation in Ukraine is far from being stable. There is some illusion as a result of elements of the ceasefire. At the moment there are no new victims of the conflict, which is probably the only positive thing. But there are no real irreversible signs, such as the withdrawal of troops from the territory of Ukraine. The heavy weapons and equipment are still inside Ukrainian territory. There is still no access for international observers to the border line between Ukraine and the Russian Federation. If that part will not be implemented, then all other agreements will be less important. Psychologically, after the other crises we have seen, such as in Syria and the migration crisis, attention is being away from Ukraine and it will be more difficult to stay focused.

When discussing the economic situation, the reforms and the fight with corruption, I am really very much concerned about the situation in Ukraine. I do not consider it stable and it requires much more attention than it has recently received.

Linas Linkevičius is the foreign minister of Lithuania.

Adam Reichardt is editor in chief of New Eastern Europe.

This interview was originally published here: http://neweasterneurope.eu/interviews/1793-to-do-nothing-is-provocative%3E/