Super Bowl LVIII Preview
This year’s title game may be a repeat on paper — but don’t let that fool you. Some sequels are worth waiting for.
America is not happy about Super Bowl LVIII. No sooner than the San Francisco 49ers completed their comeback win over the Detroit Lions in the conference championship, setting up their finale with the Kansas City Chiefs, the takes began to fly:
This is the worst NFL season!
I’m not watching this year.
Can both teams lose?
The headlines and rage tweets can be sourced to a number of reasons. In one corner sit the reigning champions, appearing in their fourth title game in the past five seasons, led by the undisputed best player in the world. Despite an 11–6 record and the fifth ranked DVOA in the league, pedestrian by their standards, Kansas City won two thrilling road playoff games to once again win their conference — to the collective eye roll of everyone beyond Missouri.
In the other corner sits the league’s most talented roster, boasting far less recent glory yet still the most success of any NFC team this decade. After cruising to the top playoff seed by New Year’s, the 49ers emerged from their bye to host two playoff games that were surprisingly uncomfortable. The first required a game-winning 69-yard drive in the pouring rain; the second a 17-point comeback that eliminated the best story of the season.
The man behind those heroics is second year quarterback Brock Purdy, a conundrum for evaluators and a godsend to content creators. From the moment Purdy was thrust under center last season, he has danced and dazzled to the tune of a 21–5 record as a starter — while tripping over his feet just enough to keep the media wheel spinning.
In his first full season atop the depth chart, and fresh off major elbow surgery, Purdy led the league in passer rating, EPA per play, and yards per attempt. He also led in YAC/completion, a stat some see as more of a referendum than accolade. He’s the second youngest quarterback to lead in that category since they began tracking the stat. The first was Patrick Mahomes in 2018.
That’s probably where the comparisons should end.
If Purdy is on the cusp of stardom, Mahomes is on the edge of supremacy. No other quarterback has played in six straight conference title games to begin their career, and only Tom Brady has matched it at any point. Brady achieved it at age 39. Mahomes is 28. His 14–3 record and 106.3 passer rating are the best in NFL playoff history.
Yawn.
By the way, were Purdy to qualify he would rank second and ninth all-time, respectively. But we’ve agreed to stop the comparisons.
If quarterback intrigue isn’t enough, look to the men commanding each sideline. 49ers head coach Kyle Shanahan represents what has become the most sought after coaching prototype: the young offensive guru. At age 37, Shanahan inherited a roster ranked 31st in offense. Within three seasons they were the second highest scoring team in the league. This year they finished third. It’s one reason why plucking from Shanahan’s staff has become an annual tradition for bereft organizations.
His counterpart, Chiefs head coach Andy Reid, couldn’t seem more different. Two decades older and trading in Silicon Valley suave for Tommy Bahama shirts, Reid landed his first professional coaching job when Shanahan was 12. He now ranks second all-time in playoff wins and has been rumored to be considering retirement.
And yet, the two actually carry more parallels than differences, separated this Sunday by little more than 53 yards and a generation. Long before Shanahan became the league’s latest whiz kid, Reid was regarded as one of the most innovative minds in the game. He still is today. Mahomes has been effusive in his praise of Reid, particularly for his football acumen. “He teaches me a ton,” Mahomes said of Reid last year. “He means the world to me. He’s just the best.” (To be fair, the quarterback could have actually been referring to his coach’s acting chops.)
Dig even deeper and you begin to find tangled roots. Like many, the success of both Reid and Shanahan can be traced back to the verdant coaching tree of Bill Walsh. Reid rose as a disciple of former Packers head coach Mike Holmgren; Shanahan as a bit more than that to his father, former Broncos head coach Mike Shanahan. After serving as offensive assistants for San Francisco in the 1990s, Holmgren and the elder Shanahan faced off as head coaches in Super Bowl XXXII. Their proteges have followed a similar path.
This of course means both teams on Sunday will be running interpretations of Walsh’s famed West Coast offense— albeit with heavy variants. Quick hit and power run principles remain, but for every standard play action to bang 8 combo there’s a new wide zone or Air Raid wrinkle. When a quarter of the league is now coached by your former colleagues, you don’t have much of a choice.
Still, coach and quarterback storylines may not be enough to overcome what some fans see as the gravest sin of this year’s game: Redundancy. The same two teams squared off just four years ago in Super Bowl LIV, timestamped February 2020, a date that belongs to a bygone era while apparently also being too soon for a rerun. Never mind that the original felt like a blockbuster.
With the game tied 10–10 at the half, San Francisco picked off Mahomes twice in the third quarter and held a ten point lead with under seven minutes to play. The Chiefs stormed back, scoring three straight touchdowns in the fourth quarter to win 31–20 and bestow Reid and Mahomes their first championship — while leaving Shanahan with more questions to answer regarding his ability to close out games.
Who would want to watch another episode of that?
In reality, we don’t have the option. Only 17 out of 106 players are returning from Super Bowl LIV, a testament to each franchise’s adaptability. In the process the roles have seemingly reversed. San Francisco now flaunts the more explosive offense but presents a defense marked by inconsistency. Kansas City, meanwhile, has relied on its suffocating defense to propel the team forward in spite of persistent scoring struggles.
The reversal is due in part to another key change. In the previous title bout, the Chiefs presented the top skill position player in the game in Tyreek Hill. Now Hill is gone, and the 49ers have added star running back Christian McCaffrey.
With so much turnover, one might imagine the teams have all but forgotten about last time. Not exactly. No sooner than Shanahan stepped onto the stage after winning the NFC Championship game, confetti still raining, did Michael Strahan ask him if there’s unfinished business. “There’s been unfinished business for awhile,” he responded. Later that week, 49ers star defensive end Nick Bosa assessed the opposition in just four words: “They hold a lot.”
In comparison, when 49ers cornerback Charvarius Ward, who played for the Chiefs in the first Super Bowl matchup, was asked about preparing for the rematch, he answered, “This Super Bowl’s in Vegas, so we might turn up a little bit the first day or two.”
Everyone approaches a sequel differently.
Whether this one becomes a classic or a flop, The Godfather Part II or Jaws: The Revenge, is yet to be seen. But considering the lead characters and the success of the original, I’ll be getting in line early. Add in the significance of the first ever Super Bowl in Las Vegas, the questions surrounding tight end Travis Kelce’s future, and the expected on-time arrival of his world famous girlfriend — and this script is jam packed with plot.
For those of you convinced otherwise, you can instead read my very thorough recap of the Pro Bowl here. For those joining me in eagerly counting down to showtime, here is my preview of the game.
Three key factors will decide Super Bowl LVIII. In the spirit of Vegas, let’s call it the Trifecta.
1. Early Down Runs
Also known as: “Will Christian McCaffrey keep Brock Purdy from 3rd and long?”
When the 49ers added McCaffrey in a midseason trade in 2022, the logical question was why any team — but especially this team — would spend extensive draft capital on a running back.
One year later, nobody is asking that question.
While Shanahan was successful with backfields led by Raheem Mostert and Elijah Mitchell, his pairing with McCaffrey has ascended to another plane. McCaffrey finished this season as the rushing champion and touchdown leader. On Thursday he was named NFL Offensive Player of the Year.
What makes the running back so good is not the explosive plays so much as the simple ones. Three yard gains are routinely turned into five. Check downs go from an act of concession to aggression. If there is a hole or an angle, McCaffrey will find it.
In order to keep the Chiefs honest, Shanahan will need every extra yard, particularly on early downs. Purdy excels in play action, but that only becomes viable when linebackers are forced towards the line to stop the run. If San Francisco can’t force Kansas City’s hand, or Shanahan chooses not to, it doesn’t matter whether your quarterback is elite or a game manager, you’re in trouble.
Just ask Mahomes. For as great as he and Kelce are, it’s been the unexpected run game efficiency that has righted the ship for Kansas City down the stretch. Following their Super Bowl run in 2020, the Chiefs aimed to improve their ground game by drafting LSU running back Clyde Edwards-Helaire in the first round. In a twist of fate the 49ers can appreciate, it eventually became a seventh round pick, Rutgers product Isiah Pacheco, who best fit the slipper.
Slowing him down has proven an ever increasing challenge. Pacheco averaged over three rushing yards after contact this season, a product of his violent (and memeable) running style. San Francisco will need to fill gaps and gang tackle better than they did against Green Bay and Detroit — a broad understatement. It’s one thing to get away with it against Jordan Love and Jared Goff; it’s another against Patrick Mahomes.
Stopping McCaffrey will be grueling for the Chiefs. Limiting Pacheco will be paramount for the 49ers.
2. Pocket Pressure
Also known as: “Will Chris Jones bat down every crucial pass again?”
Every Super Bowl carries with it one iconic play. For Super Bowl LIV, we chose the wrong one.
5:26 remaining, 20–17 score. San Francisco has the lead and the ball at their own 25 yard line. A touchdown will most certainly end the game, but even a quality drive will cost Kansas City precious clock or timeouts.
Following a Mostert run, it’s 2nd down and 5. Rookie Deebo Samuel orbit motions out to the right. The Chiefs show pressure off the edge, but upon the snap, they blitz linebacker Anthony Hitchens from the middle and drop Terrell Suggs into coverage. The problem: It’s 2020, and Suggs is 37.
The result is a pirouette from Suggs as he decides whether to guard tight end George Kittle or plod his way over to Samuel in the flat. He eventually chooses Kittle, who by now is wide open in the seam. And his quarterback sees him.
With pressure coming, Jimmy Garoppolo quick releases the pass that should give the 49ers a big gain and an even bigger momentum swing — but instead, the ball is prematurely met by the massive mitts of defensive lineman Chris Jones and batted to the turf. It’s his third swat of the game. That’s a good night for Rudy Gobert.
A promising drive for San Francisco is instead punted away. The rest is history.
It’s no hot take to say that the team who wins in the trenches will win on Sunday. What is interesting about this matchup is we aren’t sure who to favor at the line. We’ve already discussed the run game, so let’s focus on what to look for during drop backs.
The 49ers bolster the more potent pass rush, though ranking 12th isn’t exactly the ROI they envisioned. It’s been worse in the playoffs. The unit has only generated two sacks this postseason, both from Bosa. Now they’ll be facing the top pass blocking team in the league and a quarterback who treats the pocket like his own personal escape room. Whether Mahomes has all-pro guard Joe Thuney or not on Sunday will help determine how much time he has to get out.
On the other side, the Chiefs rank just 20th in pass rush win rate. That number would be worse if not for defensive coordinator Steve Spagnuolo’s creative blitz schemes, which Shanahan will have to prepare for — see Trifecta number 1. The good news for the 49ers? Purdy is ranked (you guessed it) first in success rate against the blitz. The bad news is the Chiefs still have Chris Jones. And he’s still very good.
In fact, Jones was PFF’s top rated interior pass rusher in 2023. Interior is a key word because it means instead of facing Trent Williams, Jones will mostly be lining up opposite Jon Feliciano or Aaron Banks — solid protectors but not on par with Williams. (Who is?) Of course, as we’ve seen before, even when he doesn’t penetrate the pocket, Jones’ 6'6" frame can create challenges for quarterbacks. Your move, Shanahan.
At least Purdy knows that if he does get blitzed this week, he wasn’t the only one. What happens in Vegas…
3. Mental Pressure
Also known as: “Who is psychotic enough not to care?”
Let’s go back to how this whole thing began: Thursday, September 7. Season Opener. The reigning champs host the upstart Lions in Kansas City. An expected easy win for the home team.
Then we learned two things:
- This Lions team is tough as nails.
- The Chiefs have a wide receiver problem.
Kansas City registered five drops that night. One of them looked like this. The opening night loss was a precursor of things to come, a season that saw Mahomes’ frustrations boil over like never before. Another primetime match saw Marquez Valdez-Scantling drop a 50-yard strike that would have put the Chiefs ahead with under two minutes to play. By season’s end, the team would tally 44 drops, about 7% of their targets — highest in the league.
Now that group will be performing in front of an estimated 120 million viewers. That kind of number can make any pass feel slippery.
On the other side, the 49ers had the least amount of drops this season by a good margin. The team with the second lowest drop percentage was the Pittsburgh Steelers at 3.2. The 49ers finished the year at 1.8. That’s about one drop every other game. (Of note, they did not record any against Detroit.)
Where the 49ers may worry more about mental fortitude is between their opponent’s 40 and 5 yard lines, when they are most likely to summon rookie kicker Jake Moody. A 3rd round pick out of Michigan, Moody has looked shaky to start his career. He finished 27th in field goal attempts, but despite the low volume converted only 84% of his kicks. Should the stage set for a critical Moody boot from distance, 49er fans will assume the worst and hope for the best.
That won’t be the case for Kansas City. Harrison Butker finished fourth this season in field goal percentage and is sixth all-time in playoff points for a kicker — ironically, one spot ahead of Robbie Gould. Gould kicked for San Francisco the past six seasons before being replaced by Moody, going a perfect 28/28 in the playoffs and extending his NFL record for most postseason kick attempts without a miss. Moody is 3/5 in his first two playoff games.
Of course, the most mental pressure is likely on Purdy, who was a third string rookie 14 months ago. Going 4–1 in your first five playoff games would suggest an ability to handle the moment, but the Super Bowl is a new stage, and these Chiefs are a new adversary. Just how human Purdy is may finally be answered on Sunday.
Bonus:
4. Fate
Also known as: “The Eli Special.”
To be clear: Fate is not always a factor in the Super Bowl. But when it is, it overpowers any leg of the Trifecta.
Sometimes it’s karma catching up. Other times it’s a story too good to be left on the shelf. In 1997 it was Elway finally getting his first ring against a cocky incumbent. In 2001 it was Kurt Warner completing his Horatio Alger journey. In 2018 it was backup Nick Foles and a secret 12th man.
The obvious fate factor here is Purdy, whose story doesn’t go as far as the grocery store, but it’s close. In addition to planning for the Chiefs, he and fiancé Jenna Brandt are planning their wedding. You can almost imagine the cinematic crossfade from the trophy presentation to the wedding altar, hearing our protagonist say “I do” as we pan across the congregation to see our favorite players applauding, adorned with shiny Super Bowl rings, before fading to the closing title card: Mr. Relevant.
Or we can imagine the impact of anointing a new dynasty and allowing Taylor Swift to win the Super Bowl. That may end world hunger while starting three new wars.
But I’m going in a new direction. Back in 2008, Bill Simmons wrote about attending Super Bowl XLII and seeing his beloved Patriots get upset by the New York Giants, losing their bid for a 19–0 season. The moment he says he saw it coming was halftime, when Tom Petty started playing “Free Fallin’.” Six years earlier, when the Pats won their first title, it was U2 singing “Beautiful Day.” Simmons knew an omen when he heard one.
This year’s halftime performer is Pop/R&B star Usher. I’ve spent way too much time going through his catalogue to see what fate could be telling us. Here’s what I found:
“Yeah!” and “OMG” seem to cancel each other out.
“My Boo” is a point for Kelce and the Chiefs.
“U Got It Bad” is a point for the 49ers.
“Love in this Club” is a song I hope he performs.
“Climax” might settle it. (You can decide which way)
Maybe it won’t be any of those. Maybe this Super Bowl will be decided purely by the players. Maybe an activist will glue themselves to the field and cause a delay that shifts momentum. Or maybe Usher will open his set with “Confessions” and utter the two-word anthem of every underdog:
We’ll just have to wait and see.
Prediction
If I’m a Chiefs fan, I want to see lots of 13 personnel and bully ball with Pacheco. Make San Francisco prove they’ve fixed their run defense woes and keep your receivers’ influence minimal. When you need Mahomes magic you may get it, but it’s best kept in case of emergency.
If I’m a 49ers fan (I am), I want to see Shanahan avoid the trap Todd Monken fell into and dish out a steady dose of McCaffrey. Mix in Elijah Mitchell and force the Chiefs secondary to tackle Deebo Samuel more than guard him. Purdy too can make plays when needed, but now is not the time to prove his worth. Any path to the podium will do that.
When picking a winner, I’m tempted to simplify it to the matchup of quarterbacks, coaches, kickers, or playmakers. Most of those favor the reigning champions, but what actually has me predicting a repeat is the experience found in the trenches. For a game chalked full of superstars, this one will be decided by the heavyweights up front.
Chiefs 24, 49ers 20
