In late January 2014, there was a hopeful sign of peace between two major rivaling groups in South Sudan when they signed a cease-fire agreement. The internal conflict in South Sudan had taken a turn for the worse in the past few months, killing thousands of people and placing refugees in neighboring countries. President Obama called this the “first critical step” toward an “inclusive political dialogue to resolve the underlying causes of the conflict.”
Quick history lesson on South Sudan
South Sudan is literally in the south of Sudan, and west of Ethiopia, in northeastern Africa. It’s the world’s youngest country as of July 2011 when it gained independence from Sudan. Of course, the independence was achieved after decades of bloody civil war that took lives of more than two million people in the region. When South Sudan became an independent country, Salva Kiir took office as the country’s new president.
Religion: (unlike Sudan) animist, Christian
Poverty headcount ratio at national poverty line: 50% of the population
Everything has been shaky from the start.
When South Sudan officially seceded from Sudan, it instantly became one of the poorest countries in the world. The country still has one of the highest infant mortality rate, death rate, and very primal infrastructure. The new country hasn’t taken a real break from internal conflict and war for a very long time, with conflicts amongst different ethnic groups, rebel militia groups, assassination of many military leaders, etc.
Layers of corruption have rumored to make up the structure of South Sudanese government, especially after the mysterious death of John Garang, the first president who originally formed and led the SPLA during the Second Sudanese Civil War. It’s also important to note that he died only few months after peace was finally achieved.
Who are the key players in the recent conflict?
SPLA stands for Sudan People’s Liberation Army (aka the army of South Sudan), formed back in the 80s during the Second Civil War. SPLA has been struggling to find unity as it is increasingly divided by the political dissent in the South Sudanese government, between supporters of the current president Kirr and that of the former Vice President Riek Machar, who was dismissed last year after being accused of planning a coup.
There are two biggest ethnic groups at play: President Kirr identifies with the biggest Dinka group, while Machar does with the rivaling Nuer group. These two groups have historically been in conflict — for example, Machar’s Nuer group is accused of 1991 massacre of ethnic Dinkas in the town of Bor. Violence worsened significantly last year when Machar and several other officials were accused of treason and were dismissed from office.
How has it worsened in the past few months?
In December 2013, fighting broke out amongst the presidential guards, and thousands of Nuer people were murdered in Juba (capital city of South Sudan). The incident sparked widespread ethnic killings and massacres dubbed “ethnic cleansing.” The young and divided nation is now mirroring the horrific state of the civil war era in the 80s and 90s, with sexual violence, massacres, and extrajudicial killings that have led thousands of refugees to flee to neighboring countries.
The political power struggle within South Sudan had been brewing since it had gained its independence. The ethnic group Dinka has been dominating the top cabinet under President Kirr, who has been heavily criticized of his undemocratic, borderline dictatorial tendencies and his inability to settle the economic crisis.
The tragic part is that we’re not exactly sure who is to blame. After all, the fighting was instigated by the military leaders and governors who are forming their own private forces to control their territories. Remember that these men are the ones the international community has supported.
So what’s at stake here?
Well first, there is billions of dollars’ worth of humanitarian aid from the international community at stake. South Sudan reportedly received billions of dollars in aid last year for food and infrastructure, but not much progress has been seen in the region as violence and destruction rage on. Corruption has definitely played a big role in funnelling the money out of the country.
But more importantly, there is oil. That’s right. Oil is a HUGE factor here. South Sudan produces nearly three-fourths of former Sudan’s total oil outage — which would translate to almost half a million barrels per day. The South Sudanese government derives almost all of its budget revenues from oil. So having control over these oil-producing regions is obviously critical to power. Both the Dinkas and Nuers control parts of the oil-producing regions, guarded heavily with armed forces.
Here is a simple map of where the oil fields are, as well as where the pipelines go:
Speaking of oil… where is Sudan in all this?
The Sudanese government, along with the Ugandan government, have declared its support for Kiir. But that doesn’t mean all the tension has dissipated.
Back in the days, there was a dispute between Sudan and South Sudan on how to split the revenue from the oil fields. Since South Sudan is a landlocked country and doesn’t have any ports or refineries, they reached an agreement to have oil pipelines go across the Khartoum region of Sudan to the ports in the Red Sea, while Sudan would receive 50% of the revenues.
But this deal only worked until the independence of South Sudan, where they disagreed again on transportation fees. As a result, South Sudan stopped its oil production in early 2012, causing more tension that many afraid would break into another war. However, they’ve agreed again last March to resume oil exports, as both have suffered from losing a lot of revenues.
Let’s not forget about the victims here.
There has been a huge refugee crisis because of all the fighting. This month, the U.N. declared a huge food crisis in South Sudan; an estimated number of 3.7 million people are in “acute need of food.” The South Sudanese government has been incapable of providing food, clean water, and better infrastructure.
Since last December when the Nuer-Dinka conflict began, approximately 860,000 people have been displaced, and more than 80% of them still remain in South Sudan while the rest have fled to neighboring countries. More than 10,000 people have been estimated to have died. The conflict is keeping thousands of civilians from receiving any type of humanitarian aid.
One of the most recent tragedies took place in January, when an overcrowded boat that was carrying around 200-300 refugees, mostly women and children, drowned in the White Nile. They were all scrambling to escape fighting. Only two people survived.
But the U.N is helping the refugees, right?
Yup, the U.N has five bases across the country, and an estimated 500,000 people are hiding in these bases. But even for the U.N, South Sudan is one of the most dangerous areas of operation at the moment.
In April 2013, seven U.N employees and five Indian peacekeepers were killed during an ambush in the Jonglei region by antigovernment rebels. Then in December, the SPLA shot down a U.N. helicopter and killed four Russian crew members, then insisted that there was some “miscommunication.” Both groups in South Sudan growingly distrust the U.N., as the international community — alongside U.N., is losing patience with the region’s abominable humanitarian record.
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