Crypto Theses for 2019

My thoughts on the state of crypto in 2018 and where we’re headed

What exploring cryptocurrencies in 2018 feels like.

As another year wraps up, I started writing an email to close friends and investors on the “state of crypto” and my forecasts. As it got longer, it turned into this sprawling post. A few notes:

• This write up contains wide-ranging theses and obvious biases (my own) and is by no means authoritative. Please don’t nitpick.
• Where I make predictions, I try to be as specific as possible (inspired by SlateStarCodex’s format). Not all predictions are quantifiable. Some will be off and many will likely be directionally incorrect. That’s OK.
• Unless otherwise specified, my criteria for a liquid, actively-traded project “dying” is either (1) < $100k volume/$20m market cap or (2) primary development abandoned, whichever comes first.
• None of these predictions are normative; in many cases I see momentum in products or approaches I consider fundamentally flawed. C’est la vie—this is an attempt at a descriptive 2019 outlook.

Index

• Bitcoin
• Ethereum
• Other Tokens
• Private Projects
• Stablecoins
• Crypto-funds