Taiwan, a self-governed island with a booming tech industry and a fierce sense of independence, exists in the shadow of mainland China, a communist superpower that views Taiwan as a renegade province. Tensions have been brewing as both sides have competing claims. Is this a recipe for war or can a peaceful resolution be found?
Let’s dive into the history of China and Taiwan and understand the involvement of the US in this story as well as explore the possibility of China invading Taiwan (hoping, of course, that it doesn’t come true).
Understanding Taiwan
Taiwan has a history that stretches back a millenia. It is believed that the indigenous people arrived in Taiwan around 6000 years ago. They developed their own culture and language, laying the foundation for Taiwan’s rich tapestry.
In the second half of the 19th century Taiwan started to attract Western and Japanese interest for economic and strategic reasons.
A war broke out between China and Japan in the summer of 1894. It had nothing to do with Taiwan, but China’s defeat led to the Qing empire ceding Taiwan and the Penghu islands to Japan. Some Taiwanese resisted the takeover, and the Japanese Army spent six months, and lost thousands of men, crushing local guerilla forces.
The Japanese implemented a brutal and exploitative colonial regime, focused on resource extraction and industrialisation. However, they also modernised infrastructure and education, leaving a lasting impact.
During World War II, Japan used Taiwan as a staging base for their conquest of Southeast Asia. Thousands of Allied prisoners-of-war were held in POW camps in Taiwan; hundreds died as a result of malnutrition and overwork. More than 200,000 Taiwanese served in Japan’s armed forces, some in combat roles.
Following the withdrawal of the Japanese after WWII in 1945, Taiwan became part of the Republic of China (ROC), the state founded on the Chinese mainland in 1911 when the last emperor was overthrown by Sun Yat-sen and his supporters.
In the two years before Chiang Ching-kuo’s death in 1988, the KMT began to loosen their grip on power. He was the eldest son of Chiang Kai-shek, the leader of the Kuomintang (KMT) party and the Republic of China government that retreated to Taiwan in 1949. Martial law was lifted and new political parties were permitted (Taiwan currently has over 200, but only three have representation in parliament). The media became far more outspoken, and when restrictions on overseas travel were lifted, vacations abroad (including to the Chinese mainland) became popular.
In 2016 the DPP won both the presidential and parliamentary elections. DPP President Tsai Ing-wen (the first female leader in Asia who isn’t the daughter, sister, or wife of a previous leader) won re-election in 2020.
History of China’s relationship with Taiwan
After World War II, the ROC’s president was Chiang Kai-shek, leader of the KMT (Chinese Nationalist Party). Unfortunately, the man Chiang chose to govern Taiwan made a bad situation much worse. The economy was mismanaged and there was massive corruption.
Meanwhile on the mainland, the KMT were losing ground to Mao Zedong’s Communists. In December 1949, Chiang relocated to Taiwan — no part of which had fallen to the Communists where they ruled for several decades. They called this the Republic of China, a name Taiwan has retained.
China sees self-ruled Taiwan as a breakaway province that will eventually be under Beijing’s control — and has not ruled out the use of force to take the island.
But Taiwan sees itself as distinct from the Chinese mainland, with its own constitution and democratically-elected leaders.
Taiwan has always had strong links to China as China has been its biggest trading partner. But the number of people in Taiwan who identify as Taiwanese — as opposed to Chinese — has been increasing.
The Chinese Communist Party points to this history to claim Taiwan. But the Taiwanese point to the same history to argue that they were not part of the modern Chinese state that was first formed after the revolution in 1911 — or the People’s Republic of China that was established under Mao in 1949.
History of US’s relationship with Taiwan
The history of the US’s relationship with Taiwan is intertwined with the US’s relationship with China.
As of right now, the US is one of Taiwan’s most important allies. However, historically speaking, it has not always been like this.
The Republic of China was the state founded in mainland China in 1912, and the US was one of its principal backers during and after the Chinese Civil War it fought against the Chinese Communist Party (CPC), on and off between 1927 and 1949.
Chiang Kai-shek died in 1975. At the end of 1978, a few months after Chiang’s son Chiang Ching-kuo became president, the United States broke off relations with Taipei so it could establish diplomatic ties with the People’s Republic of China.
As part of President Nixon’s policy of “détente” during the Cold War, the US sought to normalise relations with China. This policy came to fruition in 1979 when President Jimmy Carter established full diplomatic relations with the People’s Republic of China and terminated its formal diplomatic relations with the Republic of China government in Taiwan.
Since then, the US has maintained what was known as “strategic ambiguity” over Taiwan. This involves the US acknowledging China’s “One China” principle and, without endorsing it, finding a peaceful solution between China and Taiwan.
Under President Trump US policy towards Taiwan became less ambiguous and more overtly supportive.
This was in large part due to the deteriorating relations between China and America. Mr Trump increased military support to Taiwan including naval operations in the Taiwan Strait, sent senior officials to the island, and his Secretary of State relaxed restrictions on meetings between US diplomats and Taipei representatives.
A visit by the then Speaker of the US House of Representatives, Nancy Pelosi, to Taiwan in August 2022, triggered a furious response from China which launched military exercises surrounding Taiwan at a scale not seen since the 1995 to 1996 Taiwan Strait Crisis.
President Biden has continued maintaining close relationships with Taiwan. The US continues to sell weapons to Taiwan and take part in naval operations along the Taiwan Strait.
Will China and the US go to war?
Whether Xi Jinping is aiming to go to war with China depends on how you read his intentions. Public statements made by him are carefully vague and are both threatening and peaceful at the same time.
“We will continue to strive for peaceful reunification with the greatest sincerity and utmost effort.
But we will never promise to renounce the use of force, and will reserve the option of taking all measures necessary.” — President Xi Jinping
There are a few ways one can read this;
- You could read this as an open threat by China to take over Taiwan by force and the statement that it will try to peacefully unify Taiwan into mainland China may be insincere. This is an open challenge to Taiwan.
- Another possibility is the one that’s the complete opposite. China doesn’t want to go to war with Taiwan because it can see the possible repercussions of going to war with the US (and perhaps other nations). Hence, the “use of force” is more of an empty threat and China wishes to pursue peaceful means to unification.
- The third possibility, which is more likely in my opinion, is that China is sincere in both its statements. As far as possible, China would like to attempt to unify Taiwan and China through the means of peaceful communications and diplomacy. However, if all else fails, China will not hesitate to invade Taiwan.
Xi Jinping has set the year 2049 as a target for “China’s National Rejuvenation” which analysts argue is a way of suggesting a hard deadline for the unification of Hong Kong and Taiwan into China.
The People’s Liberation Army continues to train in simulations of what looks like Taiwan’s Presidential Office building and has released videos of it to the public. This seems as an indication that China is prepared to invade Taiwan if necessary.
It is still very difficult to say if a war is definitely going to happen and only time will tell.
