This is how Google will collapse
Daniel Colin James
2.5K208

Full disclosure: I work at Google and am formerly an Amazon employee.

When would you expect to see this start to take shape? Nearly everything in your thesis was disproven by Google and Amazon’s recent quarters. The date of this publication surprised me, because much of what you wrote here seems to go against evidence that is already public.

- “While Google protected its monopoly on the dying search advertising market” — Google captured 78% of the search ads market, which is growing 24% y/y (http://searchengineland.com/google-search-ad-revenues-271188)
- “Devices running iOS were responsible for an estimated 75% of Google’s revenue from mobile search ads” — Google received 96% of all search-ad clicks from mobile 2016Q4 (http://adage.com/article/digital/google-parent-alphabet-mobile-search-driving-revenue/307720/)
- “YouTube launched an ad-free subscription model in late 2015, but the subscription numbers were underwhelming.” Youtube revenue is projected to hit $7B in 2017 (http://adage.com/article/digital/google-parent-alphabet-mobile-search-driving-revenue/307720/)
-”The average banner ad was clicked on by a dismal 0.06% of viewers, and of those clicks, roughly 50% were accidental.” — Google search ad clicks increased by 44% y/y 2017Q2 (https://www.wsj.com/articles/google-parent-alphabets-revenue-continues-to-march-higher-1493324287)
- “Google’s ability to acknowledge the coming trend and still fail to land in front of it reminded many observers of its catastrophic failures in the booming industries of social media and instant messaging.” — You didn’t list any data here — what did you mean? Wouldn’t you say improved click/traffic through AI is the result of successful use of the technology?
-”The Echo was a smash success. Google released its copycat product, Google Home, two years later, but it was already too late to catch up” — Google Home shipped as many units in Q4 as Echo (http://voicebot.ai/2017/01/24/evercore-estimates-500000-google-home-units-shipped-2016/)

I’m not saying this isn’t something to think about, and only the paranoid survive. I’m just curious when do you think this will happen?