The Premier League Rating Table

An attempt to validate Sofascore’s ability to accurately measure real-time player performance.

A few months ago, whilst exploring my ideas about Sofascore’s rating system and its future potential, I began testing methods to try prove its validity as a tool for accurately measuring player performance.

My initial experiments were solely based on the ability to predict individual performance — but then I started to think about its impact at team level. Could these ratings indicate a team’s league position? Could they highlight key strengths and areas for improvement?

With these questions in mind, I had a thought — why not create a ‘squad rating’? This would be a single figure, combining each players individual ratings. Once I had done this for each team, the idea was to match it to the final standings. If the ranking mirrored the table, it would provide evidence of the rating system’s accuracy.

In this post I will post the results of my findings and make some comments on how it will shape the 23/24 season. I will split this into two parts for time saving. It’s release is slightly delayed, I would have liked it to have been near the start of the new season but better late than never.

Methodology

Step 1: Create Rating Brackets — It’s not as simple as adding up all player ratings and finding the average. This would neglect some important details. For instance, the 1st ranked GK might have a rating of 7.06. However, the same rating for a striker might place them only 21st. So, when creating a squad rating we must weight each position. This way, the squad rating will more accurately reflect the collective performance level.

1. Compile 8 years worth of player data (each position) into a spreadsheet so that performance ranges could be calculated.
2. Name and create performance tiers.
3. For each position find a relevant tier range.
4. Assign a score to tier.
5. Colour code tiers for visual understanding.

Step 2: Convert each rating into their respective score

1. Go through each team and record each player rating (19 players).
2. Refer to the racking brackets and colour code each rating and player into their correct tier.
3. Count how many of each colour and start to tally up the figures for each tier (6 players in red = 6 x 6 or 4 players in green = 4 x 8)
4. Add up all 19 scores until final squad rating.
5. Calculate a starting 11 rating of the players who had the most starts across season.

Step 3: Create a Squad Rating Table

1. Compile each team’s squad rating into a ranking.
2. Compare with actual table.
3. Visualise it with a graphic for easier understanding.

Notes and Comments

Let’s start with what is fascinating — how closely the two created tables align with the real Premier League table. This alignment validates the system’s ability to measure performance because it accurately reflects real-world results.

By breaking each team down to their ratings and building a squad rating we can see why they performed the way they did throughout the season. We have visual areas of strengths and weaknesses that allow us to paint a more accurate picture of each team and their capability.

Let’s talk a bit about each team now. The first paragraph will be a short analysis of the squad and how the season went, followed by a preview into 23/24 and the impact incomings and outgoings will have on each team.

Top Half (1st–10th)

1st — Manchester City

City topped the table for squad rating as they undoubtedly have the best depth in the league. Their midfield was packed with elite players in every position. Surprisingly there was room for improvement in defense with no players ranking in the ‘Excellent’ (9pts) category. Uncommon to popular opinion, Ederson ranked in the ‘Poor’ category, evidenced by his save percentage of just 59% and a -5.67 goals prevented.

The loss of Mahrez and Gundogan is a big chunk to their rating. It’s true that Doku and Alvarez are more than adequate replacements but it’s still a big hit when you consider experience and other important intangibles. Gvardiol was an attempt to upgrade on Laporte, which he very well could be. Ederson may be a potential problem. Either way they have Ortega who arguably is just as good.

2nd — Arsenal

They ranked 2nd in squad rating but joint 1st in starting XI, could this be an insight into why they eventually lost out to City. It was their depth that was their undoing, the loss of Saliba being replaced by such a weak player in Holding had a bigger effect than suggested. Ødegaard and Saka were the clear standouts and will need to deliver the same in the current season if Arsenal are to compete again.

The transfers of Rice and Raya will boost their squad rating if they are to perform at their current levels. It’s two 10 pointers replacing two 8s. Which is a +4 increase. If this is to get them closer to City then are they in more of a position to compete for the title? It’s an interesting point to note. Timber was an attempt to provide depth across the back four. Havertz brings a bit more extra depth in midfield and attack but is not a level raiser at this stage.

3rd — Manchester United

Continuing on the trend, United ranked 3rd for squad depth and their starting 11. Contrary to popular belief, their defense was strong in both quality and depth on the right side. However, their attackers, particularly the strikers, performed poorly. The midfield depth was lacking as well. The few standout players like Bruno, Luke Shaw, and Lisandro somewhat inflated their true level.

They have tried to resolve the striker issue with the signing of Højlund, which as I have already explained in a different post does not do as intended. I think the RCB position was also one that needed attention but they choose to stick with a declining Varane. Amrabat was an attempt to bolster the midfield depth which I think he does slightly but I’m not sure he’s that much of an upgrade on Fred.

4th — Newcastle United

Newcastle matched United when it comes to their starting XI but couldn’t compete in terms of depth. Making complete sense when you consider they are still early into the project and squad building takes time. Their starting defence was exceptional but the depth was especially weak. They have strong attacking players in comparison to United however. The main weakness was at LB in Dan Burn, but he has a unique physical profile.

They addressed both fullback positions by bringing in two talents in Hall and Livramento, this is smart because Trippier (especially) and Burn (less so) are capable players. These players are better than their current options and will improve with time. They also tried addressing the weakness in midfield with Tonali. But it’s best to not speak on that right now. I also think Barnes is a downgrade on Saint-Maximin.

5th — Liverpool

It immediately becomes obvious that Liverpool had huge problems in the midfield area. With no players in the solid category. They are strong in attacking areas but Firmino could be a bigger loss than people realise. Not many problems in defence to take note of. Their squad rating could only match Newcastle’s which is a huge surprise but shows it is accurate to how the season went.

Liverpool went full rebuild on their midfield by letting go of 3 and bringing 4 new ones in. I’ve gave my opinion on their business in my Rating Every PL Transfer series and it’s definitely a massive improvement. This alone makes Liverpool better placed for this season and will likely challenge for the title. An aging defence is a slight worry however.

6th — Brighton

A squad varying in quality with every category being represented somewhere on the pitch. Only just behind Liverpool in terms of depth and starting XI ranking. They were exceptionally strong in midfield and wide areas, but they a scarce level of depth in the latter. Where they may have lacked is by not having a high level striker, as much of a talent as Ferguson is.

The loss of MacAllister and Caicedo is a huge hit. And the question now becomes whether they can replace them effectively enough. Dahoud will bring experience and Baleba is relatively unknown. Very possible the level drops. A more penetrating ST/AM was also necessary which they have tried to address with Joao Pedro. Sanchez was a smart sale for the price received and they will be hoping Verbruggen will prove to be an upgrade.

7th — Aston Villa

The first significant outlier in the list. Villa massively outperformed their squad and starting XI rating. A reason for this could have easily been the fact that they started off so poorly and after the arrival of Emery, drastically improved. They were strong in midfield areas with Luiz a highlight. They lacked in the wide areas and defensive depth.

They tried to rectify the problems as identified here. Signing two wide players in Diaby and Zaniolo aswell. Pau Torres will also be a good addition to the defense, being an upgrade on Tyrone Mings and in turn improving depth. They didn’t see an issue in LB however and I believe this could come back to bite them unless Digne can return to form of old.

8th — Spurs

Not far behind Brighton in terms of ranking. Outside of Romero they had clear problems in defensive areas. Goalkeeper was also a problem that needed attention with Lloris not getting better any time soon. Kane and Son obviously stand out in the front line but there was a missing 3rd piece to go with them. Not only that but the depth in attacking positions was extremely substandard. The injury of Bentancur may have had a huge impact on their season.

The loss of Kane is huge. But the signing of Maddison may be able to alleviate the gap of quality left. They have tried to rectify the defensive problem with Van de Ven. Udogie will also improve the left side of the defense. Vicario was an excellent replacement that will help improve their squad rating. Johnson was an attempt to improve depth in attacking areas but I don’t like the signing. Getting rid of Moura and replacing him with Solomon however was a necessary upgrade, as the former was no longer good enough for the league. The lack of depth in defense could come back to haunt.

9th — Brentford

Ranked closely behind Tottenham, proving they belonged in their position. Central defense was an area of real strength but there weren’t any viable backups. The duo of Toney and Mbeumo also carried the front line, with the other options not pulling their weight. The main area of weakness were the fullbacks and the midfield depth.

The loss of Raya is massive and it’s gonna be a big ask for Flekken to replace him to the same standard. They also didn’t rectify the problems in wide areas but that’s not for lack of trying. They had bids of 40m+ rejected for Brennan Johnson and Nico Gonzalez. The signing of Nathan Collins will help improve their defensive depth. The problems at fullback have however gone unchecked and I still feel they missed a trick not picking up a midfielder.

10th — Fulham

Ranked 13th for depth but 9th for starting XI. You can see this in their team as every single back-up option from midfield onwards rated in the poor category. Their defence and goalkeeper is an area of strength but improvements could still be made, especially in the centre of defense. A partner for Palhinha would also massively improve the squad.

The loss of Mitrovic is huge and they haven’t been able to replace him, I struggle to see how Jimenez is capable of doing so. Keeping onto Palhinha massively boosts their chance of maintaining their league position after he couldn’t get his deadline move to Bayern over the line. A top quality midfield partner wasn’t picked up and I don’t think either Reed or Lukic are that. The signing of Iwobi improves depth in those attacking positions behind the striker, as he’s capable of playing all 3.

Part 2 will be released shortly after…