The Premier League Rating Table v2

An attempt to validate Sofascore’s ability to accurately measure real-time player performance.

Last year I started an experimental series exploring whether Sofascore’s algorithmic rating system could indicate a team’s league position through its ability to measure performance. To do this I came up with the idea of a ‘Squad Rating’ — a singular figure that combined together all individual ratings. Once I had done this for each team, the idea was to match it against the final league standings. If the rankings aligned, it would validate the system’s accuracy in assessing player performance. As we enter a new season, it’s time for an improved second edition in the series.

Before we start, let’s go through the methodology used to build out the rating tables as I did previously, with a slight few alterations.

Methodology

Step 1: Create Rating Brackets — It’s not as simple as adding up all player ratings and finding the average. This would neglect some important details. For instance, the 1st ranked CB might have a rating of 7.21. However, the same rating for a winger might place them only 15th. So, when creating a squad rating we must weight each position. This way, the squad rating will more accurately reflect the collective performance level.

1. Compile player data into a spreadsheet to calculate performance ranges.
2. Name and create performance tiers.
3. For each position calculate a relevant tier range.
4. Assign score to each tier.
5. Colour code tiers for visual understanding.

Step 2: Convert each rating into their respective score

1. Go through each team and record each player rating (18 players).
2. Refer to the rating brackets, colour coding each player into their correct tier.
3. Count how many of each colour and start to tally up the figures for each tier.
4. Add up all 18 scores until final squad rating.
5. Calculate a starting 11 rating of the players who were used the most.

Step 3: Create a Squad Rating Table

1. Compile each team’s squad rating into a ranking.
2. Compare with actual table.
3. Visualise it with a graphic for easier understanding.

Performance Tiers: Previously they only went up to Elite but I felt there had to be another tier that represented players that were so important and influential that they deserved their own bracket. Enter the 1st Class tier.

With a slight change in the algorithm this year, the new weightings meant average ratings increased across the league. This meant the tiers had to be upgraded to reflect this. The new 1st Class Tier had to be categorised under specific conditions to reflect only the very best.

The Final Tables: The early impressions are that the updated algorithm may be even more accurate because there are very few discrepancies in terms of how the tables match up. 2 or 3 true outliers is some very good going.

Average Rating Against (ARA)

This time there’s another idea I want to introduce to the series. In my original version we account for a team’s performance across the season but not specifically for how teams performed against them. To solve this issue I came up with the idea of an ‘Average Rating Against’ section. This would be a figure that represents the average rating teams conceded to their opposition.

Here’s how it works: I analyzed all 20 teams and each of their fixtures, recording the average rating scored by the opposing side. This average was derived from the individual player ratings of the opposition, calculated into one composite figure. After collecting 38 average ratings for each team, I averaged these to get the overall ARA (Average Rating Against) figure. I then plotted this data on a scatter plot to visualize team form throughout the season.

Here’s how that table looked:

These are the tiers for the ARA graphs. The lower the average rating conceded the better as that means you limited the opposition to poor ratings by making them perform poorly. The tiers are not scored as they are in the ‘Squad Rating’ section and instead are more of a visual indicator.

By bringing in this new ARA section we will be able to analyse a team from a form perspective, being able to recognise the phases in which they performed well or poorly. All this does is provide further context through numbers highlighting the algorithm’s ability to reflect real-time performance. With that being said, it’s time to start our analysis of each squad, trying to find reasons for their respective performance.

1st — 8th

1st Squad Rating ( — )

Despite being pushed to the final day by an electric Arsenal side, Manchester City got another one over the line to continue their dominance over English football. In terms of their rating table performance, there can be no debate who was the best performing side in the league. We have a team here with virtually zero weaknesses, elite in every aspect of the pitch, boasting six players ranking in 1st Class. Rodri and Foden ranked as 1 and 2 in terms of the best players in the league with De Bruyne more than likely being up there had he met the appearances quota. What more is there to say?

1st ARA ( — )

Unsurprisingly City also topped the table for their ARA, the simple fact is they’re pretty much unstoppable when it’s the business end of the season. If you look at the graph we see some slight peaks between game week 20–30, where performance may have slightly dropped off. As soon as week 30 hits, the switch is flipped and they went to a new level which secured them the title. It’s this relentless consistency that has made them 4-time champions and will mean anyone who wants to take their crown will have to be nigh on perfect for 38 games.

2nd Squad Rating ( — )

Falling short of the elusive PL title for the second year running, Arsenal are getting closer and closer to glory. This season, the team improved significantly, with many players stepping up and key signings living up to expectations. The league’s best defense, statistically, is evident in the ratings, with Gabriel and Ben White making huge strides. £100 million signing Declan Rice seamlessly integrated into the midfield, allowing Odegaard to elevate his game. On the flanks, Bukayo Saka emerged as one of the league’s best, while Martinelli’s progress stalled. Kai Havertz was a revelation at striker in the final stage of the season. Yet again, a slight lack of depth proved to be their undoing, as their midfield and defense couldn’t match the consistent quality seen over at the Etihad.

2nd ARA ( — )

In terms of their ARA, Arsenal actually came way closer in the tables than they did with the Squad Rating. For the majority of the games they performed to remarkably high levels. This was especially the case in the period from gameweek 20–30, going on a complete tear and not allowing other teams any joy. What we mostly see is costly blips and a 3 game dip in performance halfway into the season. The reason this is important to note is because City on the other hand, never really dropped off for more than one game at a time. That’s what it takes.

3rd Squad Rating ( — )

At one point, the 23/24 season seemed like it could be Jurgen Klopp’s fairytale ending, lifting the Premier League title and riding off into the sunset. However, as soon as Liverpool dared to dream, reality quickly set in, and the season ended on a more subdued note. That’s not to say they didn’t have a strong season — they performed well throughout and kept pace until the very end. In defense, things looked solid with Robertson back to his best and Van Dijk and Trent continuing their exceptional form. Despite becoming a fan favorite, Endo seemed to be a weak link in midfield, ranking as ‘Poor,’ whilst newcomers MacAllister and Szoboszlai took to their new home. In attack, Salah was the standout star, while Nunez and others performed admirably but not at the level needed to challenge the dominance of those in sky blue.

3rd ARA ( — )

With Liverpool there’s a pretty straightforward narrative and that plays out well a truly in our ARA graph too. For the first 30 games of the season they kept pace with City and Arsenal, performing to a similar exceptional level with perhaps maybe a few more blips than the others. Their form really picked up midway into the season only to tail off towards the back end. The ratings they were conceding wouldn’t be so bad if they weren’t a side challenging for the title. But when the competition is as good as perfect, you can’t do anything other than match that level. A worthy 3rd place.

9th Squad Rating (-5)

The first real outlier on this list is Unai Emery’s Aston Villa, making history by returning to Europe’s top competition for the first time in over 40 years. From a squad rating perspective, their achievement is quite baffling. They only managed 9th and 8th in the two tables. But a closer look at their squad starts to reveal why. In defense, no players ranked higher than average, indicating room for improvement. In midfield, Douglas Luiz stood out as a cut above the rest. The wide positions were well-covered, with Bailey finding his feet for the first time. Up front, Watkins led the line, ranking as the league’s second-best striker. A fundamental lack of depth is evident pretty much across the pitch, something that will need addressing with Europe to focus on.

5th ARA (-1)

Their ARA score gives us more context to Aston Villa’s performance. What we see is a team that generally blew hot or cold. They were either excellent or really poor, with no middle ground. Aside from the very first game, Villa’s first half of the season was exceptional. Nearly all their elite performances came in this period, and all their poor performances came in the second half. Despite the inconsistencies, Villa ranked 5th in the table, a much better performance than their Squad Rating suggested. This means their strength lay in limiting other teams and doing just enough to win, rather than delivering a string of huge performances.

4th Squad Rating (+1)

With a new manager and a young, hungry team, Spurs fans had reasons for hope going into the season. I’m sure many would have taken A 5th place Europa finish at the beginning of the season, but an excellent start had them daring to dream a little bigger. In terms of the tables, Spurs seem to be where they belong, actually ranking a position higher for both. Looking at their squad, there’s quality across the pitch. Son and Maddison delivered superb seasons, both ranking as 1st Class. The defense was solid, thanks to the performances of Romero and Porro. However, midfield depth and top-tier quality were lacking, with only two players ranking as solid. A few upgrades in key positions and there’s a team capable of pushing on.

4th ARA (+1)

The graph tells the story of their season almost immediately. For the first 10 games, they looked like a team capable of challenging for the Premier League title. But then reality hit hard as their form plummeted with a string of very poor performances. After this blip, they regained form and went on another little run. Mixed results followed until the back end of the season, where they started performing poorly again, ultimately costing them a spot in the Champions League. What I see here is an inexperienced team brimming with potential but struggling to maintain consistency over a 38-game period. Relying on hot streaks is not enough, especially when the drop-offs are so severe. They will need to learn how to stay steady.

6th Squad Rating ( — )

Continuing on trend with the experiment, Chelsea ranked the same spot in the rating tables as they did the actual league table. When we break it down we can start to understand their performances more. The first thing to point out is the mixed results in defence, strong fullbacks are accompanied by Thiago Silva but a lack of a partner. The midfield trio is their strongest point with all 3 performing to a high level. Cole Palmer had a remarkable season ranking top 5 in the league and being Chelsea’s talisman all year round. Nicolas Jackson lead the line with a respectable solid rating but problems remained on the left side with neither Mudryk nor Sterling cutting it.

6th ARA ( — )

With the narrative surrounding their season, I found Chelsea’s ARA to be quite surprising. They had a very strong start, never really reaching a poor level at least not for extended periods. We see the level drop significantly mid season, with quite a few blips in performance that saw them concede a higher average than usual. Going into the final third of the season however, their form turns a corner and they really kick on. The rating trend comes down pretty drastically with several elite performances. A slight blip with the 5–0 loss to Arsenal is the only poor performance in the spell. It’s this form that would have got them to the Europa League had United not managed to win the FA Cup. The question it leaves me asking is whether they jumped the gun with Poch.

5th Squad Rating (+2)

After finishing in the Champions League spots last season, Newcastle hoped to repeat their success in 23/24. Instead, they dropped to 7th place. According to the rating tables however, they perhaps should have finished a few spots higher. Examining their team, a few reasons for the drop-off emerge. In defense, only Trippier maintained his rating from the previous season, with the others dropping off slightly. In midfield Bruno stands out massively, ranking as one of the league’s best. However, his partners couldn’t match his level, creating a weakness. In contrast, the front three — Gordon, Isak, and Murphy — performed at an incredibly high level. And are all backed up with a solid level of depth in these areas.

7th ARA ( — )

Newcastle ranked slightly worse off in their ARA than their rating tables. This means as a team whilst they were blessed with attacking talent capable of producing top performances, they had a team that were much weaker at limiting the performance of their opposition. Immediately we see some very poor performances and even in extended spells. The start of their season was actually pretty excellent, especially from GW5 onward. As we approached the early mid-season stage, their form seemed to drastically take a downturn. They are the first team we’ve analysed so far that had multiple red strips of performance. They did pick up form again however and had a pretty inconsistent 2nd half of the season that can considered neither really good nor poor. 7th place seems about right for the Magpies.

7th Squad Rating (+1)

After finishing a strong 3rd in Erik Ten Hag’s first season, hopes were high for the Red Devils. But the 23/24 season brought disappointment, ending in 8th place. Let’s see if we can try to understand why. The rating tables place United slightly higher, in 7th, just off the pace of those ahead. Starting with Onana, who despite criticism, had an excellent season. In defense, Maguire and Dalot were reliable. Midfield saw Casemiro paired with the young Kobbie Mainoo, who performed respectably. The attack tells the real story. Bruno Fernandes was the star, but he lacked support. Young Hojlund’s inexperience and Rashford’s struggles hurt the team. This lack of consistent attacking support was a key factor in their disappointing season.

15th ARA (-7)

Fans of United should probably look away. In terms of the ARA table, things get really dark for the Manchester side. They didn’t just fall a few places — they plummeted 7 spots, landing in 15th. This suggests they were far too easy to play against. It’s possible an 8th place finish itself was very fortunate. The graph tells the story. Their start was very poor and didn’t massively improve except a slight upturn. After the halfway point, things do improve and the average conceded was kept lower. The overall trend for the season remained the same: high peaks of poor performances followed by modest games. I don’t try to bring personal perspective into these exercises but I think there’s much room for concern and Ten Hag can count himself a fortunate man.

To avoid a lengthy post, I will just cover the top 8 teams in this part. In the 2nd part I will cover the rest as I won’t have to go back through the methodology. Stay tuned.