Evaluating The 2012 NFL QB Class

Life is genuinely tough for an NFL GM. It’s easy for football fans to criticize draft picks made by NFL teams, but it isn’t an easy job.

The 2012 NFL Draft was set to be one of the best draft classes in a long time. Headlined by Andrew Luck and Robert Griffin III, two franchise cornerstones, this quarterback draft class had elite written all over it. But as everyone knows, expectations are different from reality. Let’s take a look into how these QBs actually performed.

Andrew Luck: Indianapolis Colts (Round 1, Pick 1)

The Indianapolis Colts found themselves in a surprising situation in 2012. After future Hall-of-Fame QB Peyton Manning suffered a neck injury in 2011, the Colts ended with the worst record in the league. The Colts received the first overall pick, lining the stars up perfectly to draft the protege, Andrew Luck. Luck, the Stanford alum, was touted to be the “next Peyton Manning.” The 6’3” 240 lbs Luck was most definitely an elite QB prospect. He had prototypical size, fantastic arm strength, the smarts, and his added athleticism was a perfect fit for modern-day NFL.

Luck very much delivered on those promises of greatness his first three years. Despite very little help from the Colts management to surround Luck with a good team, he still led the Colts to three straight 11–5 seasons, making the pro bowl those three years. Luck even set the record for most passing yards through three years.

Things seemed to be turning around in Indy, but their faults finally caught up with them. Former GM Ryan Grigson gave Luck one of the worst offensive lines in the league, leading to Luck being the most hit QB through three years. Luck is very tough, but there was only so much his body could take. From 2015–2017, Luck missed numerous games due to a multitude of injuries.

After those years injury-riddled years, Luck finally returned in 2018 to a new head coach, but a very underwhelming roster. So far, Luck has thrown for 1948 passing yards (9th in NFL) with a 20:8 TD to INT ratio, but that doesn’t tell the whole story. Luck is throwing to the likes of “Mo Alie-Cox,” “Zach Pascal,” “Marcus Johnson,” clowns nobody has ever heard of.

It’s a true testament to Luck’s legitimate greatness. With absolutely nobody to throw to, Luck has been playing as well as possible. The Colts receivers have dropped the ball 213122 times, they gain no separation, and still Luck makes these guys look competent. Andrew Luck is elite, when he gets back to full form with actual receivers, the NFL will realize it quickly.

Robert Griffin III: Washington Redskins (Round 1, Pick 2)

If it was any other year, Robert Griffin III would have been the no. 1 overall pick. He was just that good of a prospect. Griffin tore it up at Baylor. The dual-threat QB had a ridiculous arm and burner speed. The St. Louis Rams traded away the no. 2 overall pick to the Redskins, who proceeded to swoop up RG3.

Griffin came out firing his rookie year. A perfect fit with the Mike & Kyle Shanahan, Griffin flourished with option plays, play action, throwing on the run. RG3 dropped 3200 passing yards, a 20:5 TD to INT ratio, in addition to 826 rushing yards and 7 rushing TDs. Griffin took home the OROY award with the Redskins going 10–6, sneaking into the playoffs for the first time since 2007.

After a stellar rookie year, Griffin’s play took a steep decline. It was a combination of Griffin’s injury prone play style and opposing defenses figuring out how to stop the Shanahan offense that had led to Griffin’s downfall. After two mediocre years, Griffin was demoted to third string QB his 4th year.

Griffin officially hit rock bottom when the Redskins released the former OROY in 2016. After a short, unsuccessful stint with the Cleveland Browns, RG3 signed on to be the no. 3 QB for the Baltimore Ravens in the 2018 offseason. Griffin had a solid, promising preseason for the Ravens. Watching the game tape, RG3 looks like he can still be a solid starting QB if given the chance, his health remains the major question mark.

Ryan Tannehill: Miami Dolphins (Round 1, Pick 8)

After years of soul searching for a legitimate QB, the Dolphins found their man when they drafted Ryan Tannehill with the 8th overall pick. The Texas A&M gunslinger was considered very raw coming out of college. Tannehill played WR his first two years for the Aggies before locking down the starting QB spot his last two.

Tannehill had the physical profile, top-level athleticism, and fantastic arm strength. Although he was deemed “not ready” to be a starting option in the NFL immediately, the Dolphins named Tannehill the starting QB week 1.

Tannehill had an uneven rookie year but started to put it together his next three years putting up 3900+ yards and 24+ TDs those seasons. Tannehill continued to improve in 2016 throwing for a career-highs of 67.1% completion percentage and 7.7 Y/A. Tannehill hoped to take another step forward in 2017, but a torn ACL derailed his season before it even got started.

To be frank, the prospectus of Ryan Tannehill is baffling. It’s still unclear what Tannehill is. Is he a game manager? Or is it the injuries that hold him back from being elite? The questions continue to pile up. Tannehill needs to get healthy prove himself before his opportunity slips away.

Brandon Weeden: Cleveland Browns (Round 1, Pick 22)

The Cleveland Browns had been searching for a QB for…well a long time. After more than a decade of quarterback instability, the Browns selected Brandon Weeden with the 22nd overall pick. Weeden was one of the more peculiar picks of this NFL Draft.

Weeden had fantastic size, a laser arm, he was a strong leader and a very talented QB. The negatives? After a minor league stint in baseball, Weeden came in at 28 years old, he played in the defense abundant Big 12 conference, and was a below average athlete.

While his longevity was in question, everyone thought Weeden would come in and make an impact. But instead, Weeden quickly crashed & burned, struggling mightily before being cut after two seasons. Weeden spent the next three years with the Dallas Cowboys and Houston Texans as a backup filling in for spot starts.

Now 35 and old, Weeden is washed up (though he never capitalized on anything). In 2018, Brandon Weeden has been delegated to backing up Deshaun Watson in Houston. Weeden was never able to get his career on track and likely never will.

Brock Osweiler: Denver Broncos (Round 2, Pick 57)

The Denver Broncos ditched the Tim Tebow experiment (lol) when they got their hands on Peyton Manning in 2012. Although Manning was still an elite QB at 36 years old, the Broncos knew he only had a few years of productive play left. They made the wise decision to draft QB Brock Osweiler late in the 2nd round to bookend Manning.

After Osweiler spent a majority of his first few years riding the bench, he finally got his chance to showcase his skillset when the injury bug hit Manning in 2015. Osweiler led the Broncos to a 5–2 record behind his rock solid play. Peyton Manning hit a steep decline and decided to retire after the year, leaving Osweiller atop the depth chart.

The Broncos had their QB of the future sitting on their roster, all they had to do was sign the free agent, Osweiller. After impressing in Denver, the Houston Texans stole Brock Osweiler with a 4-year $72 million contract to be their QB of the future. But Osweiler struggled mightily in Houston, throwing more picks than TDs, getting traded after his one brutal season to the lowly Cleveland Browns in 2017.

Osweiler continued to bounce around the league from Cleveland to Denver now to Miami in 2018. After looking washed up the last two years, Osweiler has somehow found success in a few spot starts for the oft-injured Ryan Tannehill. Osweiler has always had elite arm strength and enormous size, but his decision making, mechanics, and accuracy are what come into question. If Osweiler gets his head on straight, perhaps he could revive his career as a starter for the most important position in football.

Russell Wilson: Seattle Seahawks (Round 3, Pick 75)

The Seattle Seahawks laughably gave a 3-year $26 million to QB Matt Flynn after one blow up game with the Green Bay Packers in 2012. To counteract that, the Seahawks made the decision to draft Russell Wilson in the middle of the 3rd round.

Wilson beat out Matt Flynn from the get-go, winning the starting job in training camp. Wilson has impressed from his very first snap. Proving the doubters wrong, Wilson has squashed any concerns about his height.

Wilson has one of the strongest and most accurate arms in the NFL. He is one of the most athletic QBs in the NFL. The most important thing is how he puts it all together. Wilson’s ability to improvise, to make something out of nothing is his biggest asset. Wilson has seemingly gotten better each and every season.

2018 has been something of a struggle for Wilson and the Seahawks. Despite one of the worst run games, one of the worst offensive lines, and a lack of weapons at receiver, Wilson has still put up uber efficient numbers and showcased his pristine ability to improvise. Forever underrated and underappreciated, Russell Wilson is one of the best QBs in the NFL and will be for the duration of his career.

Nick Foles: Philadephia Eagles (Round 3, Pick 88)

In one of the most stacked QB classes in history, Foles flew under the radar. Foles had the talent to go in the 1st or 2nd round but fell to the 3rd round on mobility and ceiling concerns. Still, the Eagles were happy to swoop up Foles as their backup QB behind Michael Vick.

After struggling his rookie year, Foles united with Chip Kelly for a record-breaking sophomore season where Foles put up jaw-dropping efficiency with his 9.1 Y/A and 27:2 TD to INT ratio. Touted as a “game manager” coming out of college, Kelly used him like that, playing him to his strengths in his scheme.

After an injury-riddled year in 2014 where Foles struggled, he was traded away to the St. Louis Rams in 2015. Foles’ woes continued there as he bounced around the league for those two years before falling back with the Eagles in 2017 as the backup behind Carson Wentz. With the best offensive line, elite run game, and even better defense Foles was able to take over for the injured Wentz. He led the Eagles all the way to a Super Bowl to cap off a miraculous season.

When Wentz missed the first two games of the 2018 season, Foles struggled mightily to recap the magic he displayed in last year’s playoffs. Foles has had one of the most interesting careers as a QB. He remains one of the best backup QBs in the NFL, but his status as a starting QB remains in doubt. If Foles was to take over as a starter he would need a system with a strong run game and play calling to be successful.

Kirk Cousins: Washington Redskins (Round 4, Pick 102)

We already recapped Cousins’ former teammate, Robert Griffin III. The Washington Redskins wanted a strong backup to bookend RG3, and they got exactly that with Cousins. While there were questions about his arm strength, Cousins was touted as a tireless worker who would continue to get better and would be drafted as a solid backup option.

Along with the demise of RG3, Cousins impressed in spot starts his first three years as RG3 was slowly edged out of the organization. Cousins finally got his opportunity to start in 2015 and he had a fabulous season of 4166 yards with 34 total TDs to only 11 INTs.

Despite the impressive year, the Redskins refused to hand Cousins a long-term contract. They instead franchise tagged him in 2016 when Cousins put up almost identical numbers. Still, Washington was not convinced. So they tagged him again in 2017 and Cousins put up even better numbers.

For whatever reason, the Redskins let Cousins walk in free agency. Cousins signed with the Minnesota Vikings on a ridiculous 3-year $84 million contract, with all$84 million guaranteed. The money for Kirk Cousins was well deserved. One of the best QBs in the NFL, Cousins was never appreciated by Washington, he will now continue to carve up NFL defenses as he has been doing in 2018.

Ryan Lindley: Arizona Cardinals (Round 6, Pick 185)

The Arizona Cardinals got lucky with Ryan Lindley. A player who was projected to go in the 3rd round, Lindley had 1st round talent solely based on his arm strength. He was considered a raw product, but one that had the tools to develop into a strong starting QB.

Lindley’s career simply never got off the ground. He threw 7 INTs and no TDs his rookie year. He didn’t attempt a pass his sophomore year before being released in the 2014 offseason. Lindley bounced around the league the next several years before ending up in the CFL.

Ryan Lindley has virtually no future in the NFL. While there were hopes he could put his skill set to good use and rejuvenated a Cardinals offense that lacked juice since Kurt Warner, it never capitalized. Lindley can kiss his days in the NFL goodbye.

B.J. Coleman: Green Bay Packers (Round 7, Pick 243)

B.J. Coleman was 100% considered a project coming into the NFL. Coleman had the arm strength and physical tools to succeed but struggled in all other facets of the game. The Packers drafted Coleman in the 7th round to be Aaron Rodgers’ backup.

Coleman was delegated to the practice squad during the whole 2012 season after Graham Harrell beat him out for the backup QB job in Green Bay. After seeing no development, the Packers pulled the plug on Coleman after the 2013 preseason.

Coleman’s name has not been heard of since 2013. Coleman has had stints in Arena Football and CFL, but his short-lived career in the NFL is most definitely finished.

Chandler Harnish: Indianapolis Colts (Round 7, Pick 253)

The “Mr. Irrelevant” pick, the Indianapolis Colts drafted Chandler Harnish with the last pick of the 2012 NFL Draft. Despite being the last overall pick, Harnish was a very talented player who was thought by many to be the long-term solution as the backup QB behind Luck.

Harnish never put it together. Despite strong preseason performances, Harnish never gained any traction to any NFL roster, he latched onto the practice squads of many teams until 2015 when he was released by the Arizona Cardinals.

Like Coleman, Harnish has seen his NFL career come to an end. Once viewed as a potential backup, Harnish has not touched an NFL team in three years and never will.

Case Keenum: Houston Texans (Undrafted)

Case Keenum is considered one of the best QBs in college football history. But in the eyes of NFL Draft scouts, Keenum was undersized and a system QB. With no team showing any real desire in Keenum, the Texans signed Keenum shortly after the 2012 NFL Draft.

Keenum was placed on the practice squad for the entirety of the 2012 season. The next few years Keenum bounced between the Texans and Rams. Relegated to backup duties, Keenum made a few spot starts where he struggled to produce. Keenum ended up with the Minnesota Vikings in 2017.

Keenum was forced into starting duties following a Sam Bradford injury after the first game. Keenum proceeded to have a career year throwing a 22:7 TD to INT ratio and leading the Vikings to the NFC Championship game. Despite the heroics, Minnesota decided to sign the aforementioned Kirk Cousins and let Keenum walk in free agency.

In 2018, Keenum signed with the Denver Broncos to be their starting QB. Despite one of the better receiving cores in the NFL, Keenum has struggled mightily. Like Foles, Keenum needs a strong run game and a system playing to his strengths to succeed. Keenum is one of the best backup QBs in the NFL, but whether he can be an NFL starter remains to be seen.

Best Quarterback?

In one of the greatest QB draft classes of all time, there are two names that stand out above all else. Russell Wilson and Andrew Luck are easily the two best QBs from this stacked draft class. While Wilson has been able to produce in terrible situations, Luck will be the best QB when it’s all said and done.

Andrew Luck has been playing behind league-worst offensive lines, with terrible run games, bookended by atrocious defenses. While healthy his first three years, Luck carried the whole team, making random players you’ve never heard of into formidable pass catchers. Luck’s ability to elevate his teammates adds to his greatness.

While the Seahawks have had immense success in the win column with Russell Wilson, we now see what the Seahawks look like without an elite defense or run game. Luck has carried his team in unprecedented ways the way you only see someone like Aaron Rodgers do.

As of today, Russell Wilson slightly edges out Luck as the best QB from this draft class. But it could be as soon as January that we’re viewing Luck as the winner of this draft. Finally healthy and mature, Luck has the potential to be one of the all-time greats in the NFL.